Even so, that may not accurately identify who is who. Or, what.
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I watched that TED presentation, but feel that it offers an analysis that is extremely arbitrary, and a glaring oversight.
First, it's worthless to utilize arbitrary probability reduction ratios, as the speaker does. Any result can be 'mathematically' arrived at in that way. It really has no meaning.
Second, the whole question of, the "where is everyone" Fermi paradox presupposes that other advanced civilizations currently wish for us to be aware of them and make contact. Is it so difficult to imagine that advanced civilizations may have found other means of communicating than via RF which we don't yet have? Suppose that they have the technology to communicate via modulating space-time (gravity), just as an example? Would we easily detect that? It seems that the only civilizations we might detect would be ones that are, essentially, at our own level of technical development. Should they be, say, 100 years behind us in technology, they then are not yet able to send signals in to space at a significant enough power level for detection. Should they, instead, be 100 years ahead of us in technology, they may easily have developed the ability to communicate by some means which we cannot yet detect, until they are ready for us to detect them.
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The "Dark Forest" theory, as explained by Michael Lazell.
Michael Lazell, I've read extensively about the Fermi Paradox and the Drake equation as a hobby.
This theory is explained very well near the end of the science fiction novel, The Dark Forest by Liu Cixin. The first axiom is that survival is the primary need of civilization. Therefore, civilizations will do whatever it takes to ensure their own survival. The second axiom is that civilizations always grow and expand, but the amount of matter and resources in the universe are finite.
So every civilization other than your own is a likely threat. At the very least, they are occupying a planet that you could use to expand your civilization. At worst, they are more technologically advanced and will wipe out your civilization to expand their own.
When two civilizations meet, they will want to know if the other is going to be friendly or hostile. One side might act friendly, but the other side won't know if they are just faking it to put them at ease while armies are built in secret. This is called chains of suspicion. You don't know for sure what the other side's intentions are. On Earth this is resolved through communication and diplomacy. But for civilizations in different solar systems, that's not possible due to the vast distances and time between message sent and received. Bottom line is, every civilization could be a threat and it's impossible to know for sure, therefore they must be destroyed to ensure your survival.
You might be thinking that if an advanced civilization detects the radio signals from Earth then they would know that we are less advanced and therefore not a threat. But again you have to consider the vast distance and time it takes for those signals to travel. Even if a nearby civilization (only 10 or 20 light years away) detects us, it would take hundreds or even thousands of years for them to reach us and that is plenty of time for a technological explosion. If they don't attack us at once, then we might develop technology fast enough to catch up and threaten them.
It won't be like Star Trek. Without faster than light travel, there won't be any communication, diplomacy or trade with alien races. It's kill or be killed.
So that's why we haven't heard a peep from other civilizations. The universe is a dark forest where every civilization is a silent hunter. They desperately try to stay undetectable while hunting for other planets to colonize and threats to destroy.
The theory is from a GREAT sci-fi book, the "Three-body problem" by Liu Chixin.
Michael Lazell, I've read extensively about the Fermi Paradox and the Drake equation as a hobby.
This theory is explained very well near the end of the science fiction novel, The Dark Forest by Liu Cixin. The first axiom is that survival is the primary need of civilization. Therefore, civilizations will do whatever it takes to ensure their own survival. The second axiom is that civilizations always grow and expand, but the amount of matter and resources in the universe are finite.
So every civilization other than your own is a likely threat. At the very least, they are occupying a planet that you could use to expand your civilization. At worst, they are more technologically advanced and will wipe out your civilization to expand their own.
When two civilizations meet, they will want to know if the other is going to be friendly or hostile. One side might act friendly, but the other side won't know if they are just faking it to put them at ease while armies are built in secret. This is called chains of suspicion. You don't know for sure what the other side's intentions are. On Earth this is resolved through communication and diplomacy. But for civilizations in different solar systems, that's not possible due to the vast distances and time between message sent and received. Bottom line is, every civilization could be a threat and it's impossible to know for sure, therefore they must be destroyed to ensure your survival.
You might be thinking that if an advanced civilization detects the radio signals from Earth then they would know that we are less advanced and therefore not a threat. But again you have to consider the vast distance and time it takes for those signals to travel. Even if a nearby civilization (only 10 or 20 light years away) detects us, it would take hundreds or even thousands of years for them to reach us and that is plenty of time for a technological explosion. If they don't attack us at once, then we might develop technology fast enough to catch up and threaten them.
It won't be like Star Trek. Without faster than light travel, there won't be any communication, diplomacy or trade with alien races. It's kill or be killed.
So that's why we haven't heard a peep from other civilizations. The universe is a dark forest where every civilization is a silent hunter. They desperately try to stay undetectable while hunting for other planets to colonize and threats to destroy.
The theory is from a GREAT sci-fi book, the "Three-body problem" by Liu Chixin.
The thing is, those are all human behaviors. Human motivations. I think it wrong to necessarliy expect human behaviors and motivations from non-human entities.
While some of our negative motivations are undoubtedly learned, I wonder how much of them they are simply genetic in origin? Can we completely 'un-learn' our destructive, exploitive, and simply cruel behaviors, or are we forever cursed by our genetics?
Human motivations? I believe they are the motives of a predator. How do predators react to another predator encroaching on their territory? How do they behave with the neighbouring predators? (I'm thinking of lions and hyenas and other such animals.) I think these motivations are universal.
I also see three different types of aliens. Those that evolve from predators, those that evolve from herbivores and those that evolve from autotrophs. What you evolved from would shape your behaviour and outlook.
I also see three different types of aliens. Those that evolve from predators, those that evolve from herbivores and those that evolve from autotrophs. What you evolved from would shape your behaviour and outlook.
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If life evolves (vs created) elsewhere in the universe then it is by definition a life that becomes into being because it has survived in a competitive environment and carries this as part of it’s nature. As such it will develop only what is advantageous, evolution is brutally honest, it rewards the most efficient and effective designs for long term survival in any particular environment (in our case, the earth). There is no question of ethics, religion, will or fairness.
If the environment is expanded to a galaxy, I see no reason why natural selection will not continue to hold sway. Cooperation between species will exist only so long as it is mutually beneficial. Humans will therefore have 3 possible futures, we dominate (which includes being alone), we are absorbed (includes extinction, slavery, being farmed), or there is symbiosis (with ongoing co-dependent evolution and eventual merger).
If the environment is expanded to a galaxy, I see no reason why natural selection will not continue to hold sway. Cooperation between species will exist only so long as it is mutually beneficial. Humans will therefore have 3 possible futures, we dominate (which includes being alone), we are absorbed (includes extinction, slavery, being farmed), or there is symbiosis (with ongoing co-dependent evolution and eventual merger).
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But the environment changes and the thuggish behaviour that once was an advantage can soon become a liability.
So far we cryo our wires
No, what is necessary for survival. Which begs the question..since that is true, why is their such beauty here. And if beauty is in the eye of the beholder, an ugly intelligent alien will recognize ours as such and envy. Which in turn begs the question, since intelligence must recognize beauty in the universe, it stands to reason we do also. Therefore if there is life out there it must be exactly our nature. Among everything that exists, this is what life looks like, right here.
The best adapted life for long term survival here is not intelligent.
Intelligence has yet to show it is a good survivability trait. We're new, and may well not last...
Intelligence has yet to show it is a good survivability trait. We're new, and may well not last...
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I would view intelligence as a clear competitive benefit, we are living proof that intelligence leads to our domination here, and ultimately an ability to control our environment to a level other species have not attained. Unfortunately, we are changing the environment faster than other species can adapt, at this time the bio diversity of our planet is plummeting as a result of this. Other species are forced to adapt to us. Ultimately, all other species on this planet will evolve, or be designed by us, to serve us (for food, materials, entertainment, etc.). I can imagine no other outcome being more likely.
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Beauty is not an objective measure.
Male humans find females beautiful because it aids reproduction. The females we find most beautiful are those most likely to bear healthy children.
Male humans find females beautiful because it aids reproduction. The females we find most beautiful are those most likely to bear healthy children.
^^^^THIS^^^^
So far the evidence suggests that we are changing the environment much faster than even we can adapt to.
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So far we cryo our wires
No, what is necessary for survival. Which begs the question..since that is true, why is their such beauty here. And if beauty is in the eye of the beholder, an ugly intelligent alien will recognize ours as such and envy. Which in turn begs the question, since intelligence must recognize beauty in the universe, it stands to reason we do also. Therefore if there is life out there it must be exactly our nature. Among everything that exists, this is what life looks like, right here.
I think you should take some time before giving opinions like that, the human body needs a few hours until the effect of a few good drinks wears off ...
This ^^
It seems to me that there are, at least, two primary phases of evolution for an advancing civilization to continue development from violent animal beginnings. At some point, it seems that a civilization must prove it's worth by decidedly pivoting away from simple animalistic values, to increasingly civilized values. Either the civilizations succeeds in advancing as a whole, or it forever fails via injustice, discord and disorganization. It seems to me that humanity is now facing that pivot.
The predatory animal evolutionary characteristics that are necessary for survival though the first phase of civilized evolution within a competitive natural world, may have finally run their course. Characteristics such as, tribalism, territoriality, selfishness, fights-to-the-death can be currently seen in our natural world today. At some point in it's evolution, it seems, in order for a species and it's civilization to continue advancement, an higher species intelligence and wisdom must overcome it's short term, phase one instincts. Mere day-to-day survival must become supplanted by survival via long term goals and group action.
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