Again, you have to be super careful with running these kind of stats. Remember "lies, damned lies, and statistics"
Think about all the sampling biases. The data we have is very very incomplete, so extrapolation has error bars that cover the width of the Earth.
In a Lockdown every day is Sunday. Just poured the wife a stiff G&T and I’m having a glass of wine.
Very little traffic on the road, so it’s nice and quiet.
The sun is shining and it’s about 20 C out on the patio.
Very little traffic on the road, so it’s nice and quiet.
The sun is shining and it’s about 20 C out on the patio.
Sure... Scientists working for the "medical industry" invented lethal viruses that would then infect and kill themselves, their loved ones and family members just so they could make a buck. Makes plenty of sense to me!
I guess that would explain why they were able to keep the secret though. If anyone found out, they would've "cured" the scientists!
Naaaaah, you don't got it 😀 ! The guy who wrote the book is an alien that woke up (I know from a good source they have not the same day/light cycle than us) without incomes anymore from the Milky Way Expats Organisation.
So the author woke up in Spain after his 100 years night and is "active" for the next 100 years...
. In the MWEO manual, page 666, is marked, you need monney, make a virus but write a book about it before and the sells will make you rich enough for 100 years ! Previous issue was advising the same but with information technology.😱But at the MWEO they are good said to me antarctic Secret Services, there is a regulator on each planet.... able to fire alien expats if going dangerous for the locals 😱...
Edit : I now have a big doubt, it could be eventually a plot from the WorldWide Toilett Paper Consortium.
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What I meant by flat engine is as you describe, and to expect precision on dates that far back is inappropriate to the point I was making, and which is valid.
I had an R100RS in '82, and saw the MCN article at that time showing on the front page the K75 being tested, and which BMW were denying existence.
I then changed to the K100RS.
What do you mean by "flat engine"?
Hmmm, just watched indian breakingnews... they have locked don 1.3 billion people... but people are very close, racing against watch to shop food. Holi was 2 or 3 weeks ago, a luck !
Just finished my daily lap of the town by pushbike. The air quality is sooo nice.
Wine-o-clock is getting earlier for us now. Used to be 7pm.
Interesting... The Blond-"Head" seems in the deny yet and want America States to work still cause last crisis showed people jumping from Windows in Manathan... He he readed few history books he would know there were not so many... but there were people evrywhere to wait for food at the corner street.
thanks for the tip about the owner 🙂
thanks for the tip about the owner 🙂
Looks legit. Pity the report is not linked: Diamond Princess had traces of coronavirus 17 days after ship emptied: CDC - ABC News
This is something I did for myself to try to understand what was happening. When I go to the worldometer.info site I was able to see a chart of the deaths for each country but was not able to compare them to one another. I thought finding the slope for a number of countries and then comparing them would be instructive.
I think the infection rate numbers are suspect but I believe that most countries have to ability to count the number of dead with reasonable accuracy. This is pretty solid data as far as an unfolding pandemic goes.
I hear you on the error bars comment. Valid point. This is clearly a back of the envelope, thumbnail sketch type of thing. Having said that I'll repeat that I believe the number of dead from COVID-19 is reasonable accurate (though I do realize that when things get really crazy people are going to die at home and be buried without testing for the virus.)
So, no graph (do you need a graph when you've been given the slope of the line?) but I feel this is useful and relevant information. Besides I'm interested and like doing this. Not only that but when I post it here in this thread I'll be made aware of any mistakes or shortcomings in my analysis (I always get useful and productive feedback here). A win, win situation as far as I'm concerned.
Diamond Princess
death rate is 1.4% right now. Best estimate of death rate as far as I'm concerned (death rate before health system is overwhelmed.) Still 15 people in serious/critical condition. Some take a long time to either recover or pass away. Quite taxing on the health care system and the ill patient....
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There were 20 people that escaped the Diamond Princess during the confinment and went back in their country by plane. Japanese health minister had to excuse itself officially about that... Hard to establish a valid model. But with the bounce it could be far more than the 1 percent... So it's a priority to focus on vital things to give time to the health system and researchers... It should last with the bounce more than one year... But to fight against each others, executives should ask the nobels to reorganize the economy for its own survival ! But who knows really ? Never happend before worldwide like this !
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...french press & UK press, by far the ones I like most with italian's. From a french newspaper :
"In its digital edition of Wednesday March 25, the Canard Enchaîné details a caustic exchange between secretaries of state.
Because you have to laugh a little. Coronavirus epidemic obliges, the Duck Chained appears for the first of its history, this Wednesday, March 25, in digital version. And in a version of four pages - against eight usually - "because we had to resolve to reduce our pagination victim of the virus," says Volatile.
However, the weekly does not seem to have lost its sense of humor (and detail). And for good reason: we discover a somewhat surreal exchange between several secretaries of state who discuss, via encrypted messaging Telegram, the giant Netflix and its reduction in its bandwidth to minimize network congestion in European countries, where citizens are now almost all confined.
“Pressure relief valves”
"I confirm that we will limit Netflix, Apple and YouTube, because they take 25% of the network, but during the day and not at night," said Secretary of State for Economy Agnès Pannier-Runacher. In the conversation, Secretary of State for Equality between Women and Men Marlène Schiappa expressed her concern for parents who will no longer be able to put their children before the cartoons of these platforms. "People must have pressure relief valves (...) to avoid violent outbursts in the home," she said.
Secretary of State for Digital Cédric O then pointed out that Italy had seen its network impacted “because porn and online games have exploded”. "In fact, if you 'youpornes' at 10:30 pm, that doesn't bother anyone ... Just a question of organization," retorts the Secretary of State for the Economy. And opens the way for some jokes about amateur porn VS. Netflix. “YouPorn, you can always ask people to send amateur content. Netflix is for families, ”adds Marlène Schiappa. In short, an exchange which will undoubtedly remain in the annals of the history of the Fifth Republic…"
Lol, they will save people .... from boderom & monotony
I have survived to disco, funk & new-wave, not sure I can still surviv to a RLMAO more !
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"In its digital edition of Wednesday March 25, the Canard Enchaîné details a caustic exchange between secretaries of state.
Because you have to laugh a little. Coronavirus epidemic obliges, the Duck Chained appears for the first of its history, this Wednesday, March 25, in digital version. And in a version of four pages - against eight usually - "because we had to resolve to reduce our pagination victim of the virus," says Volatile.
However, the weekly does not seem to have lost its sense of humor (and detail). And for good reason: we discover a somewhat surreal exchange between several secretaries of state who discuss, via encrypted messaging Telegram, the giant Netflix and its reduction in its bandwidth to minimize network congestion in European countries, where citizens are now almost all confined.
“Pressure relief valves”
"I confirm that we will limit Netflix, Apple and YouTube, because they take 25% of the network, but during the day and not at night," said Secretary of State for Economy Agnès Pannier-Runacher. In the conversation, Secretary of State for Equality between Women and Men Marlène Schiappa expressed her concern for parents who will no longer be able to put their children before the cartoons of these platforms. "People must have pressure relief valves (...) to avoid violent outbursts in the home," she said.
Secretary of State for Digital Cédric O then pointed out that Italy had seen its network impacted “because porn and online games have exploded”. "In fact, if you 'youpornes' at 10:30 pm, that doesn't bother anyone ... Just a question of organization," retorts the Secretary of State for the Economy. And opens the way for some jokes about amateur porn VS. Netflix. “YouPorn, you can always ask people to send amateur content. Netflix is for families, ”adds Marlène Schiappa. In short, an exchange which will undoubtedly remain in the annals of the history of the Fifth Republic…"
Lol, they will save people .... from boderom & monotony
I have survived to disco, funk & new-wave, not sure I can still surviv to a RLMAO more !
YouTube
YouTube
YouTube
YouTube
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Palaver about cadavers
Spain is being pretty hard hit...among other problems, dead bodies are accumulating in old folk's homes and not being promptly picked up 🙁
This article may be available in English...late in life, I acquired an otherwise-recreational MA in Spanish Lit, so I'm keeping it somewhat in use during the at-home quarantine...
Elsewhere, there is an amusing article about the police looking for a man who is renting out dogs so people can go outside (walking dog is one of the allowed activities). Some levity, at least, in this otherwise dismal time 🙂
El Ejercito encuentra cadaveres junto a ancianos en varias residencias | El Huffington Post
A case for a lower death rate? Already discussed is the very limited testing for COVID-19, which equates to very poor data for any kind of modelling. This, to me, means (good news?) that it is very likely that lots of infected (and no or mild symptoms and recovered) never get into the counts. Is it not reasonable to say that of the number tested, these are heavily biased towards not just active cases, but the more severe cases? Finally, a thought about Diamond Princess: It may be the best "laboratory test" so far, but even if there was good data, surely the population is very skewed towards older, more at-risk people. Remember cruises are filled with the newly-wed, the overfed, and the nearly dead! 😀
The main thing about the epidemic that scares me is the low death rates "with adequate medical care" but the very much worse deaths if advanced care becomes unavailable.
Spain is being pretty hard hit...among other problems, dead bodies are accumulating in old folk's homes and not being promptly picked up 🙁
This article may be available in English...late in life, I acquired an otherwise-recreational MA in Spanish Lit, so I'm keeping it somewhat in use during the at-home quarantine...
Elsewhere, there is an amusing article about the police looking for a man who is renting out dogs so people can go outside (walking dog is one of the allowed activities). Some levity, at least, in this otherwise dismal time 🙂
El Ejercito encuentra cadaveres junto a ancianos en varias residencias | El Huffington Post
A case for a lower death rate? Already discussed is the very limited testing for COVID-19, which equates to very poor data for any kind of modelling. This, to me, means (good news?) that it is very likely that lots of infected (and no or mild symptoms and recovered) never get into the counts. Is it not reasonable to say that of the number tested, these are heavily biased towards not just active cases, but the more severe cases? Finally, a thought about Diamond Princess: It may be the best "laboratory test" so far, but even if there was good data, surely the population is very skewed towards older, more at-risk people. Remember cruises are filled with the newly-wed, the overfed, and the nearly dead! 😀
The main thing about the epidemic that scares me is the low death rates "with adequate medical care" but the very much worse deaths if advanced care becomes unavailable.
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Can anyone confirm this information I received today.
Information from Vienna’s laboratory studying COVID-19 say vast majority of people who died had ibuprofen/Advil in their system so do not take it!! Those who recovered did not take ibuprofen so if you have symptoms, take Paracetamol only!!!
I just spoke with my friend who is a nurse at VGH (Vancouver) and they just learnt that Advil makes the virus 10x worse. Tylenol ONLY for the time being. She said Advil kickstarts the virus into pneumonia.
Information from Vienna’s laboratory studying COVID-19 say vast majority of people who died had ibuprofen/Advil in their system so do not take it!! Those who recovered did not take ibuprofen so if you have symptoms, take Paracetamol only!!!
I just spoke with my friend who is a nurse at VGH (Vancouver) and they just learnt that Advil makes the virus 10x worse. Tylenol ONLY for the time being. She said Advil kickstarts the virus into pneumonia.
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