Really? With billions of people clawing their way up the consumption tree, how can peak resource use come before peak human?
Are you banking on recycling?
Jan
That can't be Norway. the camera isn't smothered with mosquitos
Hah! Score one for coastline vacation
Just told everyone I'd get some fish for dinner, walked a few meters down to the shore, stood on the bedrock fishing. Took me about 20 minutes included gutting the fish.
Probably enough for leftovers for 6 people.
Attachments
@Jan,
First the science is not settled, nor should it be. We will continue to learn new things. We will get more efficient in the things that we do and learn.
Groupthink is the enemy. Human behavior is social science, I am not ready for the next contrived global shutdown.
The model assumes that (1) recourses peak and fall, (2) humans adjust to less space, consumption and less freedom. (3) Pollution increases we run out of food and water and our numbers fall.
This is the “Limits to Growth” Model that orientated in the Late 1960’s and 1970’s about the time of the “Population Bomb” book. The scientists into this model rerun the computer models at 5 year intervals with updated resource, population and pollution data. The results are the same.
Or it may be a more biblical model like, flood, fire, disease, war or snakes from the sky.
Last, the science is not settled nor should it be.
Thanks DT
@Jan
I bank on oil and resource price volatility. Stock prices have a cyclic nature to them due the human behavior.
Weather -- quite unsettled with brilliant sunshine, followed by a sudden darkening of the skies and violent but short rain squalls. I am gonna guess that temps are 10F lower this July than years past. Still have half a month to run.
I used to price volatility for a living!
I recommend to all Koonin's book, again and again, "Unsettled" as it discusses the probabilities.
I used to price volatility for a living!
I recommend to all Koonin's book, again and again, "Unsettled" as it discusses the probabilities.
Well, i'm on the good side of southern Belgium (in Hainaut, south west Belgium), but the house where i would spend my holiday is taken by the Semois river in the south of Belgian. And the worst was arround Liege (East-Belgium) in my country, whole villages are flooded to meters high, houses collapsed and probally a a few tenthousand people lost everything in the floods. 23 deads reported and at least the same ammount of people missing as power and phone is out in that region.
That was all caused by rain at a rate pf 200L/m³/24h after already a long period of rain, in a rocky region (les Ardennes and the Eifel mountains). Half of Belgium (the south-eastern half) had problems btw, but not as severe as arround Liege, Eupen, Spa and Verviers. Now all that water is going down the Maas river on the border between the Nehterlands and Belgium flooding that region, further trough the Netherlands to the Northsea...
But germany got hit even harder. The Rhein valley and region is totally destroyed. Whole villages are gone and about 1500 ppl are still missing as i hear...
That was all caused by rain at a rate pf 200L/m³/24h after already a long period of rain, in a rocky region (les Ardennes and the Eifel mountains). Half of Belgium (the south-eastern half) had problems btw, but not as severe as arround Liege, Eupen, Spa and Verviers. Now all that water is going down the Maas river on the border between the Nehterlands and Belgium flooding that region, further trough the Netherlands to the Northsea...
But germany got hit even harder. The Rhein valley and region is totally destroyed. Whole villages are gone and about 1500 ppl are still missing as i hear...
Yesterday we had a tornado hit a new subdivision in Barrie Ontario. It was maybe 20 years ago the last one took out some homes in roughly the same area. Classified as a EF2 so far until all damage assessed. Wiped out some houses and a few roofs and other collateral damage. It is near to me on the west side of Lake Simcoe. It is what we refer to be in the snow belt, close to Georgian Bay/Lake Huron, that get some nasty storms brewing up.
We had a TStorm, good down pour again but it was for about 15-20 mins, another ~4 inches of rain in a short order. Everything is nice and green now. I tied up all the plants, some are 6 ft tall, great growing season if things don't get damaged.
Sorry to hear about the massive flooding destruction and loss in Europe.
As they say low lying areas watch out and I live in a hurricane Hazel flood plain. I can see at level some folks roofs with two story houses just down the road. I had to do a elevation survey to get my mud room approved, found out I am on the highest land around, well of course it is on a heritage lot, they new the flood plains before they chopped down the forests to make room for the settlers.
Til next local weather report
We had a TStorm, good down pour again but it was for about 15-20 mins, another ~4 inches of rain in a short order. Everything is nice and green now. I tied up all the plants, some are 6 ft tall, great growing season if things don't get damaged.
Sorry to hear about the massive flooding destruction and loss in Europe.
As they say low lying areas watch out and I live in a hurricane Hazel flood plain. I can see at level some folks roofs with two story houses just down the road. I had to do a elevation survey to get my mud room approved, found out I am on the highest land around, well of course it is on a heritage lot, they new the flood plains before they chopped down the forests to make room for the settlers.
Til next local weather report
In 2004 I had almost 2 M of water go through my shop. If the water outside gets above one meter you need to let it all in or it might crush the building.
The after flood issue was it left mud everywhere. (Note some of the mud came up from the sewer lines.) Cleaning up was a bit of a bother. A week after it happened I had a chance to really bathe and sleep on clean sheets. A nice treat after working on the immediate clean up. Still occasionally find something that has a bit of mud still in it.
A bit surprising was leaving during the flooding was how strong the current was. It is not surprising after that lesson that some folks get carried away.
Of course when ordering repair parts, after mentioning flood damage everyone was most helpful.
Fires are over when the flames go out, earthquakes can leave unstable buildings, floods last much longer.
For those affected, a cup of chlorine bleach into each bucket of water to clean things, helpful friends may want to throw out "unrepairable" items, but little really can't be cleaned or repaired, even photographs.
So if you know anyone in the flood zone, best thing is to visit and help clean.
Around here the Mennonite relief crew came in and helped home owners. Can't say enough nice things even though we didn't cross paths.
As to the travelers who went to the free stuff handouts even though they weren't near the flood, ... well I didn't kill any of them. We all make mistakes.
The after flood issue was it left mud everywhere. (Note some of the mud came up from the sewer lines.) Cleaning up was a bit of a bother. A week after it happened I had a chance to really bathe and sleep on clean sheets. A nice treat after working on the immediate clean up. Still occasionally find something that has a bit of mud still in it.
A bit surprising was leaving during the flooding was how strong the current was. It is not surprising after that lesson that some folks get carried away.
Of course when ordering repair parts, after mentioning flood damage everyone was most helpful.
Fires are over when the flames go out, earthquakes can leave unstable buildings, floods last much longer.
For those affected, a cup of chlorine bleach into each bucket of water to clean things, helpful friends may want to throw out "unrepairable" items, but little really can't be cleaned or repaired, even photographs.
So if you know anyone in the flood zone, best thing is to visit and help clean.
Around here the Mennonite relief crew came in and helped home owners. Can't say enough nice things even though we didn't cross paths.
As to the travelers who went to the free stuff handouts even though they weren't near the flood, ... well I didn't kill any of them. We all make mistakes.
Well, a massive rescue and cleanup operation started. The Belgian Army, Civil Protection service (service to deal with disasters) and the red cross are present in large numbers, just like fire brigades and medical people from all over the country. And help funds are set up, lodging for the people who lost their home or who's house is now (temporally) inhabitable are arranged and cleanup started immediatly after the floods were gone (some are still there).
I personally work for the Belgian railroad (Infrabel) as IT guy (as consultant), and we lost a lot of lines due to floodings and landslides. We are ordered to focus on our work to get the system running again as all public transport in that region is out (see map, red lines are out) and a lot of people are blocked, also because their car is gone in the floods and roads are destroyed
Attachments
We have yet another period of heat here in Sweden with temperatures reaching 30+ C. For some people this may seem normal, but for us up here not so much. We have had several Summers of really hot weather for long periods of time. And we have had not so cold but rainy Winters.
We cannot say that this is JUST due to the well confirmed climate changes, but this hints us what will come in the near future.
I live by lake Vänern that has only one outlet, that allows for limited flows, and with the predicted heavier precipitation the lake will flood and the result will be dramatic as there are 7-8 major cities and towns situated low by the lake.
The science deniers can come here when our nice towns has been transformed to Nordic Veneci, and explain that climate change is yet another NASA/Illuminati/CIA hoax...
We cannot say that this is JUST due to the well confirmed climate changes, but this hints us what will come in the near future.
I live by lake Vänern that has only one outlet, that allows for limited flows, and with the predicted heavier precipitation the lake will flood and the result will be dramatic as there are 7-8 major cities and towns situated low by the lake.
The science deniers can come here when our nice towns has been transformed to Nordic Veneci, and explain that climate change is yet another NASA/Illuminati/CIA hoax...
I live near Tournai, and Tournai is not affected, it's the other side of southern Belgium. Dead toll is now unclear, numbers go from 20 to 60 in Belgium and dozens of people are still missing. But it's clear a large area is totally destroyed. The company (Infrabel) i work for manages the railroads in Belgium, and they say 60% of the railroads in Wallonia (the southern half part of Belgium) are destroyed. And the same counts for roads and towns in that region. At least tenthousands of houses are destroyed or so badly damaged that they are only good for being demolished. And some towns (Pepinster, Chaudfontaine, ...) east of Liege are almost totally destroyed. The only part of Wallonia that escaped this disaster is the part i live in, Picardie ( western Hainaut or the region of Mons, Ath and Tournai). The region between Brussels, Charleroi and Liege is lightly affected, all below that line rather heavy, but the worst is the region south and east of Liege.
Germany has now 130 confirmed deads and still 1300 ppl missing. And the damage is even worse there. In the meantime the water is going down the Maas (Meuse in French) and Rhein river and causes big floodings in Limburg and Vlaams Brabant (north-east belgium) and the Netherlands also. The disaster is far from over here.
I looked at your map and the people I know have escaped. I remember being in Tournai when diesel could freeze. As the Texaco man said that weather comes from Moscow. When I arrived at Dover it was considerably warmer due to the sea etc. I begged my father in law to sell his holiday home at Middlekerke due to sea level rise. He did mostly as no one wanted to go there. It's Belgiums Hastings. Better food. In fact it has very good food.
Shaftesbury is high up. Sorry to say that was No1 on my list. When we had massive amounts of rain nothing happened. The BT telephone tunnels were dry when the Broadband upgrades done. They are about 3 metres down like a sewer. Poor Gillingham might not be so lucky and Shaftesbury will be the cause. We never had a railway due to that, it goes to Gillingham. It rains a lot in Shaftesbury due to it's micro climate of updraught.
Shaftesbury is high up. Sorry to say that was No1 on my list. When we had massive amounts of rain nothing happened. The BT telephone tunnels were dry when the Broadband upgrades done. They are about 3 metres down like a sewer. Poor Gillingham might not be so lucky and Shaftesbury will be the cause. We never had a railway due to that, it goes to Gillingham. It rains a lot in Shaftesbury due to it's micro climate of updraught.
I presume the L'Escaut-Schelde river is safe. My friend Martina from Koln should be coming to Tim de Paravacini's funeral. If she reads this first she is welcolm to stay. I have been too frightened to ask how life is. No news is good news. We are double vaccinated and she. My neighbours might be surprised. Tim was a friend. I should go but doubt it wise.