According to Lothar Wieler, the president of the Robert Koch Institute, German laboratories are now conducting about 160,000 coronavirus tests every week.
Tobias Buck in Berlin MARCH 20 2020.
Subscribe to read | Financial Times
LA stopped mass testing of everybody with symptoms few days ago, I assume more USA regions stopped.
Only 36 of total 213 Dutch deaths have been in intensive care.
Only 36 of total 213 Dutch deaths have been in intensive care.
No, that's when our (likely evolutionary) herd mentality to panic gets in our own way. Our ability to understand risks and threats at these types of size and time scales is yet another.
So, no, it's not right nor reasonable, but a clear human weakness en masse.
A lot of the fast rise of cases comes from very strong increase of tests. It doesn't mean that there are actually that many more cases. These cases have always (relatively) been there but we never saw them. Guys, this is basic.
Jan
And in place where testing is only done on sick patients visiting the hospital, we're going to see that death ratio rise even higher. There's an inherent bias to the sampling population in such a circumstance with some sort of extrapolation to what that means in terms of total cases.
In most places in the US, we don't have the infrastructure to test for SARS-COV-2 in a large scale, so essentially non-hospitalized cases are never going to enter these kinds of charts. Likewise a good amount of our meteoric rise in cases is the result of testing. That curve should have been steeper (or earlier) from the get-go, but with the lag in testing infrastructure we are now getting test-positive cases that have been sick for several days already. I'm hoping the rise is a one-time blip rather than a complete curve readjustment.
Bas, thanks for this link -- very interesting information. I would love to be able to help your understanding, but I'm struggling with the mechanisms myself and would only muddle things. Given this is how my reading of academic papers on biological pathways *typically* goes, I might have a better shot later today after I read complementary information.
Hopefully we can get a pro or two in here that can bring this down to a lay audience.
Yes, it is. Additional info on using a chlorine gas atmosphere to disinfect is difficult to find.
One of the things I've noticed is a large variation in disinfectant efficacy time. Sometimes I read a minute, sometimes >10 minutes;
"Table 1: disinfection time for several different types of pathogenic microorganisms with chlorinated water, containing a chlorine concentration of 1 mg/L (1 ppm) when pH = 7,5 and T = 25 °C
Disinfection time with chlorinated water:
E. coli 0157 H7 bacterium < 1 minute
Hepatitis A virus about 16 minutes" (!)
(chlorine as disinfectant for water)
Who has 20 minutes for certainty? Thinking "shopping cart handle" or "payment keypad" situation...
I did find this article I'd like to share. Seems to be written in a well grounded way and speaks to Food Safety / Shopping concerns - along with the usual info that we all hopefully already know (which can be easily passed over to get to the meat of his article) Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide | Serious Eats.
Same in the Netherlands.
Source: Deskundigen: Coronacijfers Nederland niet te vergelijken met andere landen | NU - Het laatste nieuws het eerst op NU.nl
I was hoping you'd have a look at it. What I am specifically trying to understand is the relation of ACE2 to obesity, hypertension and diabetes. As I am obese, have higher than what is good for you blood pressure and diabetes/pre-diabetes. All comorbidity factors. No pressure😀
Jan.didden, My post #831 on March 21st. that was not my niece, just a post on another site. Many Thanks for the concern though!
I just heard a women in Seattle talking about her Covid -19 scare on the radio. She and others got it, early on
and it took a long time to get tested because of that, but she was the carrier as she had been abroad.
They were younger and lucky as it was no fun. She said it was actually better that they didn't know what they had
as the fear wouldn't have helped. They did self isolate when they got sick because they suspected it.
She said nobody was coughing or sneezing and it got spread around likely from droplets spewed out when
people talk as you can see them in the sunlight! So food gets contaminated that way when your eating
together etc. You can get the droplets in your eyes and face which we touch and spread when we by habit rub our eyes nose
etc. This is the reason for the 6 ft+ distance recommendation.
I just heard a women in Seattle talking about her Covid -19 scare on the radio. She and others got it, early on
and it took a long time to get tested because of that, but she was the carrier as she had been abroad.
They were younger and lucky as it was no fun. She said it was actually better that they didn't know what they had
as the fear wouldn't have helped. They did self isolate when they got sick because they suspected it.
She said nobody was coughing or sneezing and it got spread around likely from droplets spewed out when
people talk as you can see them in the sunlight! So food gets contaminated that way when your eating
together etc. You can get the droplets in your eyes and face which we touch and spread when we by habit rub our eyes nose
etc. This is the reason for the 6 ft+ distance recommendation.
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Just to be sure, I meant the uptick we in the US have had in the past couple days, which people are reading too much into. My hope is it points to having artificially low case numbers early on (shame on us), and not that our infection rate is incredibly-incredibly high, even compared to other western countries with similar difficulties in getting their populations to follow social distancing protocols.
China has seen a flattening as result of their extremely aggressive protocols, which has done an excellent (if short-term) job at reducing infections per person.
I watched Dr. Fauci's interview on FB (of all places) and he said we have a live experiment in seeing China's case load as they roll back their movement restrictions. That will give the rest of the world a better idea the time-scale of how long and how extensively we must maintain social distancing.
Bas -- I'll do what I can. I actually brought home a good portion of my electronics lab from work so I can be useful here. Since that still officially pays the bills, I have to be cognizant my employment. 🙂
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CL02 is being used at our workplace as a disinfectant. I'm not sure how often they are processing the facility. The company applying it claims a higher a Germicidal Activity compared to Hypochlorite.
Italy death toll has dropped for second day in a row. Lets all hope that this is not a blip in stats and they are turning the corner finally.
Yes, it's outrageous. Testing is vital to know what the situation is. They tried saying "we don't need to test.." until the truth - that we didn't have the facility to do enough tests - finally came out.
Another big mistake they made was to have faith that people would do the right thing, they really are out of touch, unbelievable.
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I think we’ve all seen how inept administrations have been uncovered. Yet voters will forgive them, just wait and cry.
And on a separate note: As of tomorrow night Quebec and Ontario are shutting down all non-essential businesses.
And on a separate note: As of tomorrow night Quebec and Ontario are shutting down all non-essential businesses.
In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data
Apropos the late discussion on sampling, death rates, etc. While this is from March 17th, I think it's still timely. As a note, Dr. Ioannidis is someone you stand up and pay attention to. We really really lack data to make the kinds of decisions we are. That's not to be contrarian nor Monday-quarterbacking decisions made, but to frame this all as very much a real-time multi-factorial science experiment. We absolutely need to look back carefully at our global response to this at the end of the day.
*And that's framing in the context of the horror coming out of Italy.
Apropos the late discussion on sampling, death rates, etc. While this is from March 17th, I think it's still timely. As a note, Dr. Ioannidis is someone you stand up and pay attention to. We really really lack data to make the kinds of decisions we are. That's not to be contrarian nor Monday-quarterbacking decisions made, but to frame this all as very much a real-time multi-factorial science experiment. We absolutely need to look back carefully at our global response to this at the end of the day.
*And that's framing in the context of the horror coming out of Italy.
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It might bounce around, but I think the rates will decline here shortly.
The big concern isn't blips, but rather a second wave of infection.
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