Herd Immunity and length of emergency.
I took a look at the number of infections per million population and one of the highest is Iceland. So I took the number of infections 568 and divided by the population of Iceland 364,260.
0.16% of the population is infected.
I think herd immunity is at about 80% (varies, depends on how infectious the disease is.)
I think it's safe to say no country has accurately measured # of infections. Having said that it's looking to me like this may be a while....
I took a look at the number of infections per million population and one of the highest is Iceland. So I took the number of infections 568 and divided by the population of Iceland 364,260.
0.16% of the population is infected.
I think herd immunity is at about 80% (varies, depends on how infectious the disease is.)
I think it's safe to say no country has accurately measured # of infections. Having said that it's looking to me like this may be a while....
In the UK the only people getting tested are ill enough to require medical intervention.
Could the data in the imperial College report be used to help extrapolate the total number of infections vs the Number of confirmed cases?
% symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation
Age-group (years)
0 to 9 0.1%
10 to 19 0.3%
20 to 29 1.2%
30 to 39 3.2%
40 to 49 4.9%
50 to 59 10.2%
60 to 69 16.6%
70 to 79 24.3%
80+ 27.3%
Could the data in the imperial College report be used to help extrapolate the total number of infections vs the Number of confirmed cases?
% symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation
Age-group (years)
0 to 9 0.1%
10 to 19 0.3%
20 to 29 1.2%
30 to 39 3.2%
40 to 49 4.9%
50 to 59 10.2%
60 to 69 16.6%
70 to 79 24.3%
80+ 27.3%
I think that has been overtaken by better data, ie the point that the total number infected has been grossly under-reported, leading to grossly overestimation of the death ratio.
But even if the death total was comparable with anything on that list, still the question is why all the excitement, yet we continue to actually sell cigarettes that kill these numbers year after year because we can use the tax ??
Call me ironic.
Jan
I don't get the logic and how it is usefull list ?
Hi, I also notice Sweden chosed the opposit way of the neighbours with the "imun fast spray magic" and let mother Nature do the work. I think it's about culture difference, btw your illustration is also about grups. So you should focus on italian alerts list...
How I read myself your datas and the others since the beginning with my poor logic: Sets theory: intersectio + exponential growth ?
Why ? Because it's new : new Sars 2 corona virus / covid 19. SeantKzem, the original poster who is virologist and researcher and Firstly an educated scientist explained than the most it's confined and not spread the less chance to see not controlled mutations. The luck we have is for the moment it is a relativly stable virus about mutations, more little variations are observed and shared by all over the world scientists.
Second needs, always with the same sets theory & exponential growth : it's very contagious, so the goal is to slow it for the medical staffs who die in the hospital to save people. It's not about panic, it's about information and this is here I want to go : your numbers are for the moment not relevant as we are at the beginning of a new disease not as the numbers of the list. I see just a fatalism here not a usefull logic.
But what the list also is saying ? But obesity, all the other items of the list are about contagious thing or -and, deny (intersectio: you can share several items of the list and causes). Some are about lack of information and education, poverty as tuberculous, junk food : no fatality in this : rates can be diinushed while sars 2 -cv 19 is new and we don't know yet how to operate but confinment to slow down the Time factor (intersectio of the accelaration factors set). Why ? More doctors alive, time given to find medics, testings, better chance to find a stable vaccin before the too much mix of people allow mutations of the new sars : making it like an influenza a little different from year to year.
In fact I see more what you illustrate anti logical, it's like you say at a beginning of a new war : don't panic wars make millions of death. It's not false. But you can only count death after the war is finish. Notice here the doctors are far more less than soldiers (set theory yet) but die as fast in confined places like hospitals (intersectio)
What is showing your list as well : viral thing like influenza, tuberculosis, HIV, Ebola...is contagious, this is why it's deadly ! Sets theory say : break intersection = physical distanciation, wash your hands or take care in the interectio at your own risks and others in the intersectio grup. Exponential formula is also boosted by an other factor : contagious rate which is high and make people more exposed than some of your items in the list : fatness is a rich country disease, cigarett as well (though...), moskitos, malaria is limited by areas and seasons, it's not worldwide/all seasons spread.
About panic, I read it as this : toilett paper fights don't killed too much people yet, lack of acuracy in reading the data kills because it's mainly a Timing battle : allow industry to make goods to cure, to keep alive supply chain, to have doctors not infected yet cause you need 5 to 10 years of study to make a "simple" city doctor, 10 to 15 years study for specialists and medecine professors. Doctors and nurses are dying to cure people that don't get the logic and their families are crying on how much it's stupid not to go fast to decide about confinent.
Panic will calm down naturally, economy will bounce like after a war, but you will not see Dead walking again. To sweeden logic about confinment I prefer Nrwegian logic who ask (I imputed about this 10 days ago whie I know there is some naive into) to freeze economy during a confinment to rule the spread and focus on it. A bit long sorry, take care, I want to see Surstoming cans yet 🙂
Hi, I also notice Sweden chosed the opposit way of the neighbours with the "imun fast spray magic" and let mother Nature do the work. I think it's about culture difference, btw your illustration is also about grups. So you should focus on italian alerts list...
How I read myself your datas and the others since the beginning with my poor logic: Sets theory: intersectio + exponential growth ?
Why ? Because it's new : new Sars 2 corona virus / covid 19. SeantKzem, the original poster who is virologist and researcher and Firstly an educated scientist explained than the most it's confined and not spread the less chance to see not controlled mutations. The luck we have is for the moment it is a relativly stable virus about mutations, more little variations are observed and shared by all over the world scientists.
Second needs, always with the same sets theory & exponential growth : it's very contagious, so the goal is to slow it for the medical staffs who die in the hospital to save people. It's not about panic, it's about information and this is here I want to go : your numbers are for the moment not relevant as we are at the beginning of a new disease not as the numbers of the list. I see just a fatalism here not a usefull logic.
But what the list also is saying ? But obesity, all the other items of the list are about contagious thing or -and, deny (intersectio: you can share several items of the list and causes). Some are about lack of information and education, poverty as tuberculous, junk food : no fatality in this : rates can be diinushed while sars 2 -cv 19 is new and we don't know yet how to operate but confinment to slow down the Time factor (intersectio of the accelaration factors set). Why ? More doctors alive, time given to find medics, testings, better chance to find a stable vaccin before the too much mix of people allow mutations of the new sars : making it like an influenza a little different from year to year.
In fact I see more what you illustrate anti logical, it's like you say at a beginning of a new war : don't panic wars make millions of death. It's not false. But you can only count death after the war is finish. Notice here the doctors are far more less than soldiers (set theory yet) but die as fast in confined places like hospitals (intersectio)
What is showing your list as well : viral thing like influenza, tuberculosis, HIV, Ebola...is contagious, this is why it's deadly ! Sets theory say : break intersection = physical distanciation, wash your hands or take care in the interectio at your own risks and others in the intersectio grup. Exponential formula is also boosted by an other factor : contagious rate which is high and make people more exposed than some of your items in the list : fatness is a rich country disease, cigarett as well (though...), moskitos, malaria is limited by areas and seasons, it's not worldwide/all seasons spread.
About panic, I read it as this : toilett paper fights don't killed too much people yet, lack of acuracy in reading the data kills because it's mainly a Timing battle : allow industry to make goods to cure, to keep alive supply chain, to have doctors not infected yet cause you need 5 to 10 years of study to make a "simple" city doctor, 10 to 15 years study for specialists and medecine professors. Doctors and nurses are dying to cure people that don't get the logic and their families are crying on how much it's stupid not to go fast to decide about confinent.
Panic will calm down naturally, economy will bounce like after a war, but you will not see Dead walking again. To sweeden logic about confinment I prefer Nrwegian logic who ask (I imputed about this 10 days ago whie I know there is some naive into) to freeze economy during a confinment to rule the spread and focus on it. A bit long sorry, take care, I want to see Surstoming cans yet 🙂
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ACE2 seems to be key: The Coronavirus Conundrum: ACE2 and Hypertension Edition — NephJC
Can someone educated in the relevant field tell my why apparently elevated ace2 levels could be a problem? And what cause elevated ace2?
I can understand blocking the ace2 receptors:
Blocking ACE2 receptor
but not
Delivering excessive soluble form of ACE2
as a possible solution.
What is your point? You and I are not able or qualified to make conclusions on the latest data. That is the latest date the WHO gave an update.
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There's more illoghic than is visible. In my town, it is common to see people form long lines outside waiting to be able to get in at a supermarket, while 500m further on there are NO lines at all at the supermarket and all shelves stocked.
But the first supermarket is an upscale one. So people are willing to wait half an hour in a cold square so they can get not just food but their preferred brand of food. So its still an overflowing society.
Jan
Equation to calculate the exponential spread of a virus*
Delta Nd = (E)(p)(Nd)
E = average number of people a person comes into contact with each day
p = probability of each person he comes into contact with results in an infection
Nd = is the number of infected people on a given day
I'm not sure what the values for E, p or Nd are so.... 🙁
If anyone else does....
* If I've screwed up here please let me know (trying my best to help...)
Not sure, if I understand your question correctly, but I'd assume it is mainly because these are slowly evolving cases and the resulting usage of intensive care is already accounted for.
Every change of the "usual" processes that would result in an overwhelming effect (even if just temporarily) on the health system would trigger the alarm.
If looking at Germany there is a spread in the number of deaths associated with the flu of 200 (or even zero) to 25,000 in a season over the years, mainly concentrated on the period from feb to may. The number are statistical estimates so come with uncertainties. Not all will be in hospitalization, not all will be on ICUs and there will be a number of infected who will survive after being on ventilation (I didn't know that the death risk is that high when on ventilation means intubation).
But this spreads seems to be manageable, but higher numbers even at smaller time scales are not.
The method I've used in the past (Imperial College method) only holds true when the virus is unchecked. That's no longer the case. The assumptions are
a) doubling every 5 days
b) 3 weeks from infection till death
Skipping to the end. Using 289 deaths in UK at present time.
@ 1% death rate = 462,400 infections
@ 2% death rate = 231,200 infections
@ 3.4% death rate = 136,000 infections
I believe the 1% death rate hold true in the initial stage of local epidemic (Diamond Princess is the best example of this.) Once the health care system becomes overwhelmed the percentage death rate increases (or so I believe.)
Because there are now restrictions on people's movement these numbers should all be higher than the real number. How to calculate the real number now? I have no idea....sorry.
You gave a death ratio number and referred to the 3rd March data. My point is that that is overtaken by newer data so cannot be used for reliable death ratio.
Jan
What do you suggest I post on a forum? I calculate my own death ratio based on the most recent data? Or I take the most recent calculation by experts?
100% agree ! I try to tell people briefly when I'm in the middle of it (food or medics purchases) to respect the distance... if you say it with a smile there is no panic, some people are less rigourous than others. Most want to cooperate, but few very selviches people or-and in deny attitude. We also have not all the reflex as well, as firstly we don't want to believe we can catch the virus. Think it's human behavior...logical part of our brain is not alone to rule us. Me the first btw.
The most reliable data is that from China and South Korea because nobody else did test as rigorously as those two although Germany might come close.
The USA has, as was mentioned in the BBC news this morning, performed as many tests in total (260k) as Germany does every day.
I believe death rates posted by Chinese or South Korean officials to be more accurate than later calculations if anything.
The USA has, as was mentioned in the BBC news this morning, performed as many tests in total (260k) as Germany does every day.
I believe death rates posted by Chinese or South Korean officials to be more accurate than later calculations if anything.
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