No, I don't see it as the End of the World, either.
I can get things as wrong as the next person, but AFAIK, the Spanish Flu started in early 1918. It then abated during the Summer. Then it came back 10X worse in the Autumn.
Killed more people than WW1.
Theories abound, maybe it was caused by too many people sharing those wretched trenches in France in 1917, 😕
All we know right now, is to wash your hands, don't touch your face. And avoid contact with strangers.
Like Ed Murrow used to say: "Good Night, and Good Luck."
I can get things as wrong as the next person, but AFAIK, the Spanish Flu started in early 1918. It then abated during the Summer. Then it came back 10X worse in the Autumn.
Killed more people than WW1.
Theories abound, maybe it was caused by too many people sharing those wretched trenches in France in 1917, 😕
All we know right now, is to wash your hands, don't touch your face. And avoid contact with strangers.
Like Ed Murrow used to say: "Good Night, and Good Luck."
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with strangers... and frogs ... flux them ! lol ! (Spanish flue came from Asia from boats... and yes it was not a China/American plot)
about the Jeans specie collapsing :
And that's an interesting question cause Sapiens if they had been collapsed ( a statistic model claims it starts from 10 000 last Sapiens that spead out of Africa but from few months, thanks to genomic, we know it's far more complicate than this.) didn't yet!
Anyway, what we know is a different human species can diseaper as did Neandethalis, Denosivians, whom some of us have eventually few percents in their DNA... But we don't know how they disseapered.
It's not about disseaperance these days, but the most fragiles and the ones who help and cure, even the stupid drinkers at Palm Beach and everywhere (it's really not about grup or nations) it will be a good evolution if we care whatever the bublle to each others... throwing away antics models to think to individuals. Not naive though, some will make monney, we are even not able of great collaboration into a nation, comunity, sometimes family, etc. And bad news, do you see banks switch off for few weeks the algorythms by solidarity... 😉
about the Jeans specie collapsing :
And that's an interesting question cause Sapiens if they had been collapsed ( a statistic model claims it starts from 10 000 last Sapiens that spead out of Africa but from few months, thanks to genomic, we know it's far more complicate than this.) didn't yet!
Anyway, what we know is a different human species can diseaper as did Neandethalis, Denosivians, whom some of us have eventually few percents in their DNA... But we don't know how they disseapered.
It's not about disseaperance these days, but the most fragiles and the ones who help and cure, even the stupid drinkers at Palm Beach and everywhere (it's really not about grup or nations) it will be a good evolution if we care whatever the bublle to each others... throwing away antics models to think to individuals. Not naive though, some will make monney, we are even not able of great collaboration into a nation, comunity, sometimes family, etc. And bad news, do you see banks switch off for few weeks the algorythms by solidarity... 😉
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So far, so good on the old handscrub!
Like I said, I am not currently involved in the Economy. Past it! 65-y-o. 😀
But it's a serious question.
How long can we shut down Economic interaction?
A Month or Two at most. Unless we come up with a new Economic Model...
You can't just print Money forever. 😕
Like I said, I am not currently involved in the Economy. Past it! 65-y-o. 😀
But it's a serious question.
How long can we shut down Economic interaction?
A Month or Two at most. Unless we come up with a new Economic Model...
You can't just print Money forever. 😕
Your Math is fine, as Math, but forgets the sociological/anthropologic/"human" side (just to give it a name).
1) going backwards even more, we should reach a point where there was just "one" infected ... probably in early 2019 or earlier, whatever Math says.
Which would be an impossibility because COVID19 didn´t even exist that far back, not even in China.
2) such Math applies to a closed Population, no interaction any way with "outside", in this case the whole State would have closed, impenetrable borders with the Outside world.
Clearly not the case either.
I bet hundreds of thousands (if not Millions) people get in/out the state every month ... we should check statistics.
My point being that *a lot* of infections relatively short ago, may have been brought inside the state either from "citizens" getting it outside and coming back infected or "foreigners" bringing it on their own.
So the exponential curve does not need to start from a couple cases but a sizable base. "Imported" of course.
The lack of symptoms and long incubation makes this possible.
Seems indeed what happened !
@System7 : about economy, while it's off topic and I apologize for the human-troll specie : Shirley Bassey answered it in her famous song Gladfingers : "gladfingers, he's a man, a man with the Mid-***s touch.... lalallala ....
" ... who care, do you plan to go to the cimetery with fulled pockets ? Lol ! Nah...
In the same time you have nurses and doctors whom are dying to cure you from the flu, the plague, the cv-19 and economy was not able to give the masks enough to save them and allow you to ask such questions... 😉.
@System7 : about economy, while it's off topic and I apologize for the human-troll specie : Shirley Bassey answered it in her famous song Gladfingers : "gladfingers, he's a man, a man with the Mid-***s touch.... lalallala ....
" ... who care, do you plan to go to the cimetery with fulled pockets ? Lol ! Nah...In the same time you have nurses and doctors whom are dying to cure you from the flu, the plague, the cv-19 and economy was not able to give the masks enough to save them and allow you to ask such questions... 😉.
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Please compare apples to apples.
China WOULD indeed have 3.5 Million deaths , IF they had followed the UK "herd immunity" system ... which they did not, quite the opposite.
As of "*everybody* (or, say, 80% of the population) will catch it even with lockdown and isolation" ... again that did NOT happen in China, AT ALL.
That did NOT happen in China.
China succeeded after less than 2 Months of lockdown, WITHOUT a vaccine.
Please post in a manner consistent with the tone of the thread and the times we are living in. Don't allow us the hard option of shutting the thread down.
I'm just using the formula that Dr. Neil Ferguson from the Imperial College in London uses. I'm not going to argue with any of the points you make because you're correct on every single point you make (I try not to argue with people who are correct.)
Dr. Ferguson claims to have taken all your concerns into account but of course no mathematical model is perfect. He has since switched to doubling every 5 day not 7 so that would change things too. And keep in mind when that politician made that claim of 100,000 infected in his state that was more than all the official reported cases in China at that point in time. More than 50% of all cases in the world would have been in that one single state in the USA!
When I look at the state today there are only 250 official cases and only 3 deaths. Numbers from the USA can not be trusted because they've not tested enough (like almost every single country in the world) but still....that's way less than 100,000. And 100,000 infected would result in 2000 deaths (at a 2% fatality rate) and the state only has 3 deaths.
Italy has about 57000 cases as of today. That's about 50% of what that politician was claiming for that state.
My formula might not be perfect. My assumptions might not be correct. But I still remain skeptical that there were 100,000 infections in Ohio at that point in time.
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90% of the deaths arising from the 1918 influenza epidemic were caused by secondary infection.
Continuing cases a week later. I have restricted China and used Hubei as the denominator which is close but not completely correct. Beijing let Hubei float away as it were.
With respect to "testing", S. Korea was well prepared after the economic damage occasioned by SARS in 2015. Cleveland Clinic went from being able to perform 500 tests per week two weeks ago to over 1,000 per day. There are 3.5mm people in the Cleveland region, although only 390k in the city itself.
With respect to Lombardy -- one of the UChicago economists whose family is from Milan and Rome commented that Milan has the highest quality health care in all of Italy on his podcast a few days ago.
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Online COVID-19 course...starting today.
I've got the kids this week so I'm a little busy. But if you're trapped at home and have time on your hands I'm putting this out there for those who are interested. It's a link to a online course.
"‘Science Matters: Let's Talk about COVID-19’, from the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial College London."
Science Matters: Let'''s Talk About COVID-19 | Coursera
Personally I find having information makes me feel more in control and calm. Others may feel differently...that's understandable.
I've got the kids this week so I'm a little busy. But if you're trapped at home and have time on your hands I'm putting this out there for those who are interested. It's a link to a online course.
"‘Science Matters: Let's Talk about COVID-19’, from the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA) at Imperial College London."
Science Matters: Let'''s Talk About COVID-19 | Coursera
Personally I find having information makes me feel more in control and calm. Others may feel differently...that's understandable.
Jack do you also have data from Belgium and Netherlands? Probably much like Germany.
Jan
Very unlike Germany as far as I can tell Jan. Germany is testing people....the Netherlands only those who need hospitalization. Although I suppose that figure will be analogous to real infected...wrt to the steepness of the curve.
I stopped with this sheet...
But the percentage of death relative to confirmed infected in the Netherlands is probably because they hardly test here....the alternative is that our healthcare is below par. Or we play god and say he's old...had a transplant and has diabetes...we're not gonna try and save him.
I suspect its just because we hardly test. Somehow the Dutch seem to be very bad at upscaling when needed.
Playing god
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The government is reluctantly having to force people to stay out of public parks in London. This virus is highlighting a number of negative consequences of urban living. I'm lucky, I have private outdoor space, I've spent the last couple of days in my garden, I would get very frustrated if I couldn't go outside.
It's getting worse.
Assuming all else is equal. I.e. we have the same demographics and healthcare in Germany here in the Netherlands...to get to the same death rate as them ...that means we should have around 45000 confirmed infections already in the Netherlands.
News from our learned people is to isolate if you have symptoms. Meantime we know you can be asymptomatic and spread the virus. So the news from the authorities should be imo. Assume you are infected and everyone else is. Act accordingly to flatten the curve.
Assuming all else is equal. I.e. we have the same demographics and healthcare in Germany here in the Netherlands...to get to the same death rate as them ...that means we should have around 45000 confirmed infections already in the Netherlands.
News from our learned people is to isolate if you have symptoms. Meantime we know you can be asymptomatic and spread the virus. So the news from the authorities should be imo. Assume you are infected and everyone else is. Act accordingly to flatten the curve.
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I don't know the numbers for Belgium or the Netherlands but before the virus hit the UK had 5000 Intensive Care Units of which 4000 were already in use.
In other words Germany had 29 ICUs per 100 000 inhabitants while the EU average was 12.
Germany had over 23000 ICUs of which I suspect* around 6000 were in use.
I have no idea why Germany had so many ICUs, I suspect it was a hold over from the cold war since Germany would have been the main battlefield had it come to a war.
*extrapolated from the number of UK ICUs in use because I see no reason to assume that Germany normally has much higher number of patients who need them.
In other words Germany had 29 ICUs per 100 000 inhabitants while the EU average was 12.
Germany had over 23000 ICUs of which I suspect* around 6000 were in use.
I have no idea why Germany had so many ICUs, I suspect it was a hold over from the cold war since Germany would have been the main battlefield had it come to a war.
*extrapolated from the number of UK ICUs in use because I see no reason to assume that Germany normally has much higher number of patients who need them.
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