Supply chain broken?

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I never found an answer, but I did find my way out of that very troubled country. If you can't beat 'em, don't join 'em, leave.
-Gnobuddy

We are a very troubled country indeed, have been for over 400 years, and it seems to bother you more than me. We don't have speech police, you do.

We have AP bio, chem and phys students in high schools doing grad school level experimentation. We have more foreign born post-docs in American universities than most countries have in their grad school programs.

Saying this, two things we do better than any are pricing risk and opportunity. We also excel at keeping score.

I thought we were talking about the supply chain, of which I and my sister happen to be in the middle of right now. We count ourselves fortunate that one customer decided not to move his source to China two months ago, and he feels fortunate that we are able to supply him.

I see the specter (Spectre) of mods shutting down this thread from an open and friendly discussion to one of baiting and xenophobia.
 
No worries, I'm riding away on the back of a giant human being, following a chemtrail in the sky, made by a secret government spy-plane injecting chemicals into the clouds to control our minds and modify our weather. :D

There was a famous American law-suit over coffee that a woman spilled in her own lap ( Liebeck v. McDonald's Restaurants - Wikipedia ), and then blamed McDonald's for the self-inflicted burns. Lawsuits exist over all sorts of completely idiotic nonsense; the existence of a lawsuit is hardly evidence for the presence of sanity or logic.

While I am sorry for the elderly lady in the McDonald's incident who suffered the burns, I think it's reprehensible that she tried to make millions off her injuries by suing a rich corporation. She mishandled her coffee, spilled it over herself, and caused her own burns. Since she was neither an infant nor mentally incompetent, she is the only one responsible for her burns. That's life for adults - we make mistakes, we pay for them.

I once had an airplane attendant spill an entire cup of boiling hot coffee on me. It ruined a white shirt and a pair of pants, and burned patches of my stomach and right leg enough to leave me in pain for a few days. Whom did I sue? Nobody. The poor woman spilled the coffee by accident, and I might have cost her her job if I even mentioned it to the airline, so I didn't. Stuff happens; life doesn't always go as you hope. That doesn't give anyone the moral right to sue the nearest person or corporation in the hope of getting rich.

Back to vaccinations: have you any idea of the the horrors that millions of unfortunate young people routinely suffered in the days BEFORE vaccines existed? When I was in elementary school, there were still a few high-school seniors in my school who had been born before the polio vaccine was universally given to all babies; they were bent and deformed, walked slowly, with canes, with terribly twisted bodies, with bones bent in ways no human bones were supposed to bend, always in pain. I still remember seeing them, and being horrified at what they had to suffer, for the rest of their lives. Polio was an unbelievably cruel and horrific scourge that destroyed millions of lives around the world, until polio vaccines arrived.

And polio was just one of the many medical horrors that destroyed young lives, or claimed them entirely, before there were vaccines to fend most of them off.

We all owe enormous thanks to scientists for the vaccines they invented. They have saved millions of lives, and enormously reduced the amount of human suffering on this planet. Nowadays parents in most developed countries actually expect all their babies to grow up to adulthood, instead of expecting to live through the agony of having a few babies die from polio, tetanus, rubella, whooping-cough, tuberculosis, mumps, diphtheria, chickenpox, small pox, and other killer diseases I (and most other lay people) have forgotten entirely about, thanks to vaccines, and the scientists that created them.


-Gnobuddy

You should watch the movie Hot Coffee. Maybe, just maybe, the elderly lady had a perfectly valid case against McDonald's, and maybe her case was intentionally ridiculed as part of a large scale lobbying scheme by health insurance companies to limit large payouts. We don't need the big lawsuits in Canada because of Medicare and our elaborate social safety net, but in the US there are giant malpractice lawsuits to cover the case where people are harmed so that they need chronic medical care plus can never work for the rest of their lives. Those people are now screwed, and THAT was the point of mocking the hot coffee lawsuit.
 
I don´t see the thread as crippled, at best widened, since it started with
tracking ship times
indeed BUT said delays were caused by MASSIVE Coronavirus infection , which is a Medical problem, which being massive is being handled and fought by Governments whose actions are called Politic, so I see a continuous path from point A to point E, passing through B-C-D

And yes, discussion has been kept quite polite, something not too usual in other Forums.

Happy/proud that just by sheer chance, since this is an Audio focused site, we have been graced by the presence and contributions from some Forum Members more than versed , I would say gifted, with specific extended knowledge about the most arcane areas of this problem.
 
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I apologize, I don't ever want to be the guy that offrails anything. As my father said, "there's nothing worse than a s""t stirrer".

And @Jan, I'm so sorry if I made you uncomfortable. I tend to get touchy and defensive on stuff like that; and that is a personal problem on me, not you. For that matter, you are correct that quarantine procedures are anything but an exact science (people are involved after all) and, when done haphazardly by people who don't understand, can make a bad situation worse.

Also, regardless of the general consensus, Jfetter was the OP and I'd say he's probably right that this thread got a bit...off target. If people would prefer, I can start another lounge thread just for Bio Q&A where we can sound off on science and panic over nothing :p
 

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While this thread started off as a discussion about interruptions to the supply of electronics and electronics components from China, I am starting to wonder about all the other Chinese-sourced items that we need much more than we need electronics.

Maybe a decade ago, a friend in Los Angeles participated in a "Live for one month without buying anything made in China" challenge, and found it virtually impossible. For him, the breakdown point came when he could not buy any kind of Christmas lighting that wasn't made in China (the month happened to be December), and his little kids were deeply upset at the idea of having no lighting on the tree.

But it won't come as much of a surprise to anyone that the dominance of Chinese-manufactured products in our stores has increased considerably since then. Even our garlic comes from China now. :eek:

So, how long before the supply of everyday items like socks and tooth-paste from China starts to dry up? Soap? Garlic? Shoes? Toilet-paper? Food products?

The "Doomsday Prepper" crowd is probably running around in circles foaming at the mouth with a mix of joy and anxiety as I write this, convinced their worst fears have come true, and this is the moment when all the rest of us die abjectly of starvation and disease, while the preppers inherit the earth.


-Gnobuddy
 
So, how long before the supply of everyday items like socks and tooth-paste from China starts to dry up? Soap? Garlic? Shoes? Toilet-paper? Food products?



-Gnobuddy

Worry about meds.

India is the world's largest manufacturer of medications and in view of the Corona thing have banned all exports.
China, France and Germany produce face masks and have equally banned their export.
 
So as I write this in Devon UK, 2 schools, 2 doctors Surgery's, and a church are closed for deep cleaning due to confirmed cases of covid 19 within 10 miles of my home.
My Daughter had been travelling on a bus with kids from one of the infected schools.
Corona virus is in my community, and all we can do is wash our hands and hope.
It will only take one chance contact, and I think that the business I work in will be closed down for weeks. Covid 19 is not just a China problem, and I think it will effect many aspects of our lives this year.
I found this web page showing the distribution of this virus 'interesting'
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
 
Actually now that I think about it...it's estimated that there's a 60% infection rate. Of course then 40% don't get infected. So that 3.4% is not of the entire population. For the entire population then 97.96% make it.
Need to stay positive, obviously living downtown in a big city it'll be here. Within weeks I imagine. Martin's just first. So....97.96%...
And there seems to be two strains...one's weaker than the other. There is pressure selecting for the weaker stain. Normally that's what happens...I'm crossing my fingers...
 
and I think it will effect many aspects of our lives this year.

Yes, it's playing havoc with the markets. I have seen some rather serious declines in my portfolio since it's existence was announced. That portfolio is my retirement fund. Being a business owner, I have no pension to fall back on. Not to mention that I have a handful of meds I take everyday and they're a lot more expensive than the food I eat and the beer I drink.
 
As far as infection rate vs. death rate goes, I think that is misleading. Many persons infected are not going to the doctor for fear of finding out, or (inexcusably) inability to pay for medical services. They simply ride it out and hope the 'cold' goes away. Most often it does. It may be that there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions (in the months to come) of infected individuals that are just not showing up in the posted stats.
 
As far as infection rate vs. death rate goes, I think that is misleading. Many persons infected are not going to the doctor for fear of finding out, or (inexcusably) inability to pay for medical services. They simply ride it out and hope the 'cold' goes away. Most often it does. It may be that there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions (in the months to come) of infected individuals that are just not showing up in the posted stats.

You're probably right, and our best case scenario is that the number of infections that are unreported is massive. However, I think a lot of people, including govt and media are a bit too dismissive when it comes to the potential seriousness of this disease. There's a couple issues. First, there seems to be a lack of care for those with pre-existing conditions or that are just old, as if it's no big deal if they die. Second, I have seen a lot of people just focus on the mortality rate as if it's black and white. There are going to be a lot of people affected severely that don't die. If you progress past the mild initial symptom stage, this virus is not going to be a fun experience. Obviously it is not as lethal as SARS, but a survey showed up to 40% of SARS survivors have chronic fatigue and others have shown some have pulmonary issues.

Mental morbidities and chronic fatigue in severe acute respiratory syndrome survivors: long-term follow-up. - PubMed - NCBI

Yes, it's playing havoc with the markets. I have seen some rather serious declines in my portfolio since it's existence was announced. That portfolio is my retirement fund. Being a business owner, I have no pension to fall back on. Not to mention that I have a handful of meds I take everyday and they're a lot more expensive than the food I eat and the beer I drink.

I'm not too worried myself, I'd only worry if you were living off retirement plan distributions already. The market will inevitably rebound from this and it'll probably create buying opportunities if you have cash on the sidelines.
 
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...confirmed cases of covid 19 within 10 miles of my home...
You have my best wishes.

I suspect many of us are in your shoes, living near big cities with confirmed cases, but with no idea how near those might actually be - could be on the next block, for all I know, or at the school where my wife works, or at my work-place.
...web page showing the distribution of this virus...
One confirmed case in the Faroe Islands. Wow. That's a pretty isolated area with a pretty small population around 52,000 people, and the virus has even made it there.

There were no small Pacific islands on that list, unless I overlooked one or more.


-Gnobuddy
 
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