NY Post - 6-1-21
Elizondo, who ran the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program from 2010 to 2017, said he had access to Pentagon data on UFOs that shocked him.
He said he interviewed eyewitnesses in the military who encountered the flying objects nearly every day.
Data that he looked at showed the objects traveling 60 miles in five seconds.
“Do the math,” Elizondo told The Post. “You’ll see that it’s very fast.”
The math works out to 43,200 mph.
Elizondo, who ran the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program from 2010 to 2017, said he had access to Pentagon data on UFOs that shocked him.
He said he interviewed eyewitnesses in the military who encountered the flying objects nearly every day.
Data that he looked at showed the objects traveling 60 miles in five seconds.
“Do the math,” Elizondo told The Post. “You’ll see that it’s very fast.”
The math works out to 43,200 mph.
“ So until we do (bold text above), we shouldn't make definitive statements about life / intelligent life outside of earth?”
An academic paper positing that advanced civilizations are rare is hardly a definitive statement. It simply says this is the reasoning, the math, and here is the earth’s geological record and taken together they seem to indicate it’s rare. Now, if people think this is bunk, fair enough, but then it’s up to them to put an argument on the table in support of their contention. It’s how scientific debate works.
“No one, scientist or otherwise, has any extendable basis for positively declaring what the precise probability is for other advanced life to have developed elsewhere within our galaxy. “
The reverse applies as well. But math does allow us to calculate the probability with reasonable odds.
To summarize, there are billions of planets potentially in the habitable zone of suitable stars, but the process of evolution from single cell organisms to advanced civilizations takes billions of years and a huge amount of chance luck reducing the emergence of such civilizations in all probability to 1 per galaxy. That is the current view of much of the astrobiology fraternity.
An academic paper positing that advanced civilizations are rare is hardly a definitive statement. It simply says this is the reasoning, the math, and here is the earth’s geological record and taken together they seem to indicate it’s rare. Now, if people think this is bunk, fair enough, but then it’s up to them to put an argument on the table in support of their contention. It’s how scientific debate works.
“No one, scientist or otherwise, has any extendable basis for positively declaring what the precise probability is for other advanced life to have developed elsewhere within our galaxy. “
The reverse applies as well. But math does allow us to calculate the probability with reasonable odds.
To summarize, there are billions of planets potentially in the habitable zone of suitable stars, but the process of evolution from single cell organisms to advanced civilizations takes billions of years and a huge amount of chance luck reducing the emergence of such civilizations in all probability to 1 per galaxy. That is the current view of much of the astrobiology fraternity.
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To your first point - yes - nothing to do with ‘r’ but just the fact that such a process could arise spontaneously
To your second point: Mutation is not evolution. It’s pretty nuanced, but it’s not what evolution is all about.
What was your point?
Besides I have very little doubt that life exists elsewhere given the right circumstances.
I have a lot of doubts that it amounts to much more than single celled organisms and extremely high doubts that it would be in any way technologically advanced based on the history of life on Earth.
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"Why did more complex life evolve in the first place, and a long varied progression of it at that, spanning, viruses to human beings?"
My point was that life has steadily progressed, spanning (I'm not suggesting the two form a linear chain of evolution directly between them) the most simple (viruses), to the highly complex (human beings). Including, a great diversity of complex life forms between the two along the way. So, it would seem that complex life readily evolves from more simple forms, even when those simple forms are themselves highly successfully in their own replication.
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I posted that link for humor source.
Why do you use the forum quote function on some posts and just quote marks on some other posts?
Lets get back to Charles D. post where he mentioned,
Dinosaurs were multicellular forms with lungs, brain, limbs, teeth and ...etc. Despite their long existence on this planet compared to human's, they never developed into space faring species. As stated in the last sentence of Charles's post above, human's technological development happened in a blink of an eye. It should make you wonder, if we can become space faring beings that fast in geological time scale, what are the chances of having other beings on other planets doing the same at the same time? Highly unlikely. If the timing is off by 10,000 years, that's missing the target by a mile as we say in this part of the globe and 10,000 years in geological time scale is..., perhaps even shorter than a blink. A lot has happened within that .001% of earth history and I believe just as much can happen in such duration in other parts of our galaxy. I personally don't buy into that academic paper you mentioned. But you certainly can buy into whichever academic paper that you prefer because it's your freedom.
Really, if they can teleport across a galaxy why not from place to place rather than be visible the whole time. I guess we need to add another achievement, the ability to pass through matter without interacting with it i.e. no sonic boom.
Are there presently any transitionary examples we can observe? There's been plenty of time on this perfect goldilocks test bed of ours to see lots, no?
Yes, the link I provided cites one of the 4 types of alien that can do just that.
Amazing foresight Scott!
I forgot to mention these jets were coming in very close to the ground, 100-200ft., but like you said, in silence. Then the boom. Scary awesome. 😱
To get to the ‘readily’ bit takes 3.5 billion yrs (if you are lucky) and then another 500 million before an advanced civilization emerges.
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