It's clear that we are speaking past each other on this point, so, this will be the final time which I assert the same point. No one, scientist or otherwise, has any extendable basis for positively declaring what the precise probability is for other advanced life to have developed elsewhere within our galaxy. They can only speak of the assumed potential for the failure of evolution bassed on fossil records here. However, isn't just the opposite plainly evident here? That evolution grabs about every opportunity for survival, diversity and advancement? A we know, humans aren't even the only intelligent form of life on this planet, and yet we believe that we can accurately compute the probability and declare with some certainty that it has not developed elsewhere??
Right, of course, my disagreement could only signify that I haven't read what they are asserting?
Evolution does not in any way aim for advancement, it aims merely towards successful replication.
That.
Suggested experiment: take two unpopulated but "livable" Robinson Crusoe/Easter Island/Lord of the Flies islands, in the middle of nowhere.
Drop on one of them 10 Nobel Prize winners, half male, half female, all 50 and up.
Populate the other with younger drooling idiots, preferrably between 14 and 30 y.o.
Isolate both for 100 years and visit to check, what will you find?
Suggested experiment: take two unpopulated but "livable" Robinson Crusoe/Easter Island/Lord of the Flies islands, in the middle of nowhere.
Drop on one of them 10 Nobel Prize winners, half male, half female, all 50 and up.
Populate the other with younger drooling idiots, preferrably between 14 and 30 y.o.
Isolate both for 100 years and visit to check, what will you find?
Yet, advancement has occurred, has it not? Progression in organism development from the simpler, to the more complex. So, if such advancement is not due to evolution, what is it then due to?
JMFahey's islands sound like lovely vacation spots to visit.
Lovey Howell and the Professor on one......
Gilligan and Maryanne on the other...
Lovey Howell and the Professor on one......
Gilligan and Maryanne on the other...
You mean miraculous per our own perception?
Replication isn't evolution. Mutation is, no?
I don’t doubt there are millions of planets in our Galaxy that perhaps fall in the Goldilocks zone. However, as I’ve attempted to point out, based on the paper I’ve linked to (and Brandon Carter’s paper from the 1980’s plus many others referenced in the Sandberg paper), the biological events (‘transitions’) that need to take place to see the emergence of advanced civilizations on any of these planets seem extremely rare. This is the considered opinion of astrobiologists and physicists working in the field (Carter was/is a theoretical physicist btw).
We will soon have the technology to be able to confidently determine the makeup of the atmospheres of small rocky planets orbiting distant stars in the habitable zone. If the Milky Way (and by implication the universe) is indeed full of aliens, we should quickly expect to pick up the telltale signature of oxygen on many of these exoplanets indicating the presence of large scale biological processes, as they would if they were observing us.
The paper asserts intelligent life is extremely rare through a very reasoned argument drawing on academic research over the past 40 yrs.
I’ve linked to research showing why advanced civilizations are probably not present around millions of stars in our Galaxy, perhaps you could show similar academic research that, with reasoned scientific argument, points in the exact opposite direction in support of your view?
It only happens if it conveys an advantage with regards to successful replication. Basically pure chance and coincidence, nothing more nothing less.
Remember that it took >3.2billion years for life to produce multicellular forms.
For 85% of the time life existed on this planet it amounted to nothing more complex than bacteria and archea.
For 99.99% of the time that there was multicellular life it was totally devoid of technology.
For 99.999% of the time it existed this technology was restricted to clubs, spears and making fire.
If replication exists mutation is inevitable.
Still it can only improve things that happen before replication which is why evolution can not get rid of cancer which occurs once an individual is past the age at which it can replicate.
So until we do (bold text above), we shouldn't make definitive statements about life / intelligent life outside of earth?
That's an interesting point. This means that the advancement happens very quickly, blink of an eye in geological time scale. In such case, it would be very likely to miss each other's rendezvous point, no? Lets say you try to meet someone and the timing is set in nanoseconds and you both move around at 200 mph, what are the chances of making it to work?
Not sure if this has been mentioned but check out:
Mick West on Youtube
Very thoughtful debunking of some of the video's.
Still lots of unanswered questions.
Buckle up, more releases scheduled today!
Mick West on Youtube
Very thoughtful debunking of some of the video's.
Still lots of unanswered questions.
Buckle up, more releases scheduled today!
Well put. I'd like an explanation for that. 😎This means that the advancement happens very quickly, blink of an eye in geological time scale.
No no, do you not find that curve rather surprising? It seems it increases exponentially. Is that also just random?
Per timeline posted by Charles Darwin (forum member, not late Charles Darwin), it's still blink of an eye in geological time scale.
I'd certainly not seen this. Good stuff. I'd say he's not so much debunking as explaining things that others were unable to explain. A useful skill. Thunderfoot on youtube is also a good source for that sort of thing.
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given the decline in human fertility, one group will have died out completely. The other divided into two warring factions and developed technology for defence and attack. Then they denuded their island of resources, nearly died out and the survivors amalgamated for mutual benefit.
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I loved those airshows too.
For me it was a combination of UK and US airbases in England. Watch an English Electric Lightning fly past just above the runway, silent, then the noise reaches you after the plane is already out of sight - wow! This plane was built by strapping a chair on top of two vertically mounted Rolls-Royce jet engines, designed to intercept Russian bombers where speed (Mach 2 no less, in 1960) was everything so it was one of the first supersonic interceptors and was in active service into the 80’s - it rapidly became the pilots favourite. Just as you describe, it could saunter down a runway on a Sunday afternoon, then point it’s nose straight up and fire dual afterburners until it was lost into the cloud, awesome sight!
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