Exactly.
However, no health system in the world can cope with the shear numbers.
Just do the math. If about 60%-80% get infected (what now seems to be common knowledge among experts in Germany and UK) and with about 5% "critical" cases, there is simply no way that all those can be treated (adequately).
Germany has one of (if not) the highest ratios of population/ICU beds in the world but it will not matter much if the current measures of containment taken are not enough or too late to "flatten the curve" in time enough, to keep the health system over water.
If it is not enough, we will be through this faster but CFR (case-fatality-rate) will skyrocket, just like in Italy at the moment.
In case of Germany, doing the math with above numbers, "critical" cases would overwhelm ICU bed capacity (28.000) by a factor of roughly x100, assumed ICUs would be completely empty.....
Fingers crossed for a country like the USA where almost 20 million people have no medical insurance.
"Survival of the fittest" might become "survival of the richest" ....😡
There is no actual evidence this came from eating animals. The most similar virus was from a bat. Coronaviruses are enteric pathogens in bats and so it’s in the guano. It is entirely possible just random contact with a bat in a rural area started this. Proximity to animals is the issue, which doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with eating them. We just don’t know in this case how it started, but it wasn’t at the market - it was introduced there.
Wow, you mean other mass outbreaks that ran their cycle are ahead of one that is in the spreading phase? Old maybe, wise, not so much. "Get a clue" is well warranted.
Wuhan is one rare area in China with Pathogen 4 laboratory viruse's research centers..
Chinese Lab That Studies “World’s Most Dangerous Pathogens” is Based in Wuhan – Summit News
Chinese Lab That Studies “World’s Most Dangerous Pathogens” is Based in Wuhan – Summit News
to mbrennwa
it not correct what you wrote.
the death is due not for no bed available in the hospital but, mostly, for an addition of previous illness.
The average age for the 80% of death is more than 70 years old.
But now we can see a younger people involved.
At the moment the entire hosiptals in Italy are working around 80%, the problem in next future.
There are work in progress in some additional spaces for new beds dedicated to Coronavirus.
There is also a new treatment with a special medicine that gave some good results. The name is Tolicizumab and now some hospitals are using it on some people. It was used also in China with good results but must be verified very well.
it can be a great help
Walter
it not correct what you wrote.
the death is due not for no bed available in the hospital but, mostly, for an addition of previous illness.
The average age for the 80% of death is more than 70 years old.
But now we can see a younger people involved.
At the moment the entire hosiptals in Italy are working around 80%, the problem in next future.
There are work in progress in some additional spaces for new beds dedicated to Coronavirus.
There is also a new treatment with a special medicine that gave some good results. The name is Tolicizumab and now some hospitals are using it on some people. It was used also in China with good results but must be verified very well.
it can be a great help
Walter
I am afraid the sheer number of deceased people in Italy doesn't reflect the sheer number of infected people... at all.
Italy doesn't have a significantly higher number of elderly people than other european countries. But it appears to me that they simply cannot test enough people with what is available
(personal, test kits), and the actual number of infected is MUCH higher.
Still... #andratuttobene
Italy doesn't have a significantly higher number of elderly people than other european countries. But it appears to me that they simply cannot test enough people with what is available
(personal, test kits), and the actual number of infected is MUCH higher.
Still... #andratuttobene
The high infection rate in Italy, compared to other mostly west European countries, is also caused by the fact that comparatively many elderly people live with their children, so they are more vulnerable than elderly people living on their own.
Just to keep you all in the loop, here in Argentina, sixty five confirmed, as we now know, the actual is several times the "official".
Large events, schools of all types, any large gatherings...all cancelled.
Now we haven't ventured downtown in three weeks to confirm the people have left the Petronell, a downtown series of former streets converted to pedestrians only...a sure-fire indicator of change.
This toilet-paper thing we're hearing about doesn't apply here, nor many other European countries...as the bedet is common.
The policy as such, is one of self imposed quarantine, stay at home as much and as long as possible, if you feel that you have this bug, a team will visit you for testing.
Even with nationalized healthcare, in due time this response time for testing will get longer & longer...& critical care will bump up its limitations.
On a personal note, of the three of us, our 22yr old son is almost constantly prone to seemingly all types of allergies...my 50 yo wife, gets the flu once & awhile...myself@ 63 yrs old, The likes of flu & such bounce off me constantly, much to the disdain of the sick people around me...
----------------------------------------------------------------Rick.....
Large events, schools of all types, any large gatherings...all cancelled.
Now we haven't ventured downtown in three weeks to confirm the people have left the Petronell, a downtown series of former streets converted to pedestrians only...a sure-fire indicator of change.
This toilet-paper thing we're hearing about doesn't apply here, nor many other European countries...as the bedet is common.
The policy as such, is one of self imposed quarantine, stay at home as much and as long as possible, if you feel that you have this bug, a team will visit you for testing.
Even with nationalized healthcare, in due time this response time for testing will get longer & longer...& critical care will bump up its limitations.
On a personal note, of the three of us, our 22yr old son is almost constantly prone to seemingly all types of allergies...my 50 yo wife, gets the flu once & awhile...myself@ 63 yrs old, The likes of flu & such bounce off me constantly, much to the disdain of the sick people around me...
----------------------------------------------------------------Rick.....
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The "Spanish" flu pandemic was 1918.
The one place in the U.S. that escaped relatively unscathed was Gunnison, Colorado because they were proactive, not reactive in their response to the threat.
Irrelevant. This hasn't played out yet. Besides, do you want to wait until it's too late to prevent it from becoming deadlier than one of the deadliest episodes in our nation's history???
This statement implies intent. I reject the assertion that the actions of countries around the world are intended to over hype a real threat, in order to make people crazy. Their actions are being taken to protect people, not make them crazy.
""
The high infection rate in Italy, compared to other mostly west European countries, is also caused by the fact that comparatively many elderly people live with their children, so they are more vulnerable than elderly people living on their own. ""
Not exactly
we start before all othe rcountries to check the people.
Other countries ( in Europe) is possible that they get less or more same numbers.
Probably with the same measure we have adopted days ago ( around 10 days)can help others to use same restriction and save people
The high infection rate in Italy, compared to other mostly west European countries, is also caused by the fact that comparatively many elderly people live with their children, so they are more vulnerable than elderly people living on their own. ""
Not exactly
we start before all othe rcountries to check the people.
Other countries ( in Europe) is possible that they get less or more same numbers.
Probably with the same measure we have adopted days ago ( around 10 days)can help others to use same restriction and save people
To my diy friends around the globe, be safe, be healthy.
I feel for the losses some of you have incurred.
I feel for the losses some of you have incurred.
Meat on meat my friend - whichever way you look at it, it transferred from cows to humans.
I think the UK response has been pretty lackluster IMV.
As for this herd immunity thing, see yesterday’s Washington Post where it was ripped to shreds . . . By an immunologist. The UK government advisors have been taken to task by academics close to the science whose advice they are now following a week too late.
I think the EU are taking it seriously - and it looks like a Belgium is a bit ahead of the curve. What more do you want them to do? Spain in lockdown (other than a bunch of drunken louts claiming it’s just a cold and from you know where), ditto France where my French half of the family are affected, Italy same, Belgium etc etc. US also following suite - much brother lives in New England and the local authorities are on their case.
Here's a great article from Scientific American about the scientist who has been working for 16 years to discover corona virus hosts.
We are probably coming at it from different angles and models. Anything regarding Covid-19 right now needs up acknowledge sampling bias: outside of Taiwan and South Korea, only sick people are confirmed and estimates are made for the rest of the population.
In any case, I may be totally wrong or going off old data.
Found this and it makes sense and so don't want to possibly transmit to others, plus it ensures others (when only out to shop) that we (family) are acting responsibly as we can't easily transmit it!
Study finds COVID-19 spread in China fueled by “stealth transmission”
Should of course help in not picking it up if one also wears gloves and washes items and gloves carefully etc.
Ordered 3M 6800 masks!
Study finds COVID-19 spread in China fueled by “stealth transmission”
Should of course help in not picking it up if one also wears gloves and washes items and gloves carefully etc.
Ordered 3M 6800 masks!
Maybe not only lockdown of people and shutdown the economy but the main cause of spreading this thing back and forth the globe - air traffic....
Here, still no restrictions even from hotspots around the world like Iran.... except for "Passenger Locator Cards" on checkout.
makes sense if all the country don't lock down at the same time, halas ! Also many flyght inside country. China developped their country very fast, international airport everywhere, mostly used by chineese whom raise their life level and begun to travel into China for turism purpose. I just don't understand USA don't stopped flights from state to state at the same time they closed their borders ?
I think train and plane still travel in China, Europe, Everywhere but North Korea ???? How to manage the hot-spot if people continue to travel ?!
I don't know if it's utopic but from 2 weeks I think UNO should have rule the crisis and ask the countries to lock down at the same time and freeze the most possible their economy : close the markett-places and stock-exchange as it has no sense untill crisis is not over, freeze mortagage, stand up the vital economy : food, medical, justice, security ... Make it fast is make it short !
I' surely naive, it is very hard to do, but did all those guys with great incomes never worked on disaster recovry plans ?
I think train and plane still travel in China, Europe, Everywhere but North Korea ???? How to manage the hot-spot if people continue to travel ?!
I don't know if it's utopic but from 2 weeks I think UNO should have rule the crisis and ask the countries to lock down at the same time and freeze the most possible their economy : close the markett-places and stock-exchange as it has no sense untill crisis is not over, freeze mortagage, stand up the vital economy : food, medical, justice, security ... Make it fast is make it short !
I' surely naive, it is very hard to do, but did all those guys with great incomes never worked on disaster recovry plans ?
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