WHO is now claiming a 3.4% death rate. (heard that on CBC radio tonight)
27 in Washington State (including 9 deaths)
9 is 3.4% of 265
3 weeks from initial infection to death and unchecked doubles every week
so with 265 3 weeks ago
2 weeks ago 530
1 week ago 1060
now 2120 Washington state.
Anything wrong with my math or reasoning? (Please tell me I'm wrong.)
27 in Washington State (including 9 deaths)
9 is 3.4% of 265
3 weeks from initial infection to death and unchecked doubles every week
so with 265 3 weeks ago
2 weeks ago 530
1 week ago 1060
now 2120 Washington state.
Anything wrong with my math or reasoning? (Please tell me I'm wrong.)
I'd also heard that the mortality rate was below 1% but the WHO is telling us something else now. Truthfully I'm not sure what to think. I'm watching to see what the outcome is for all those people on that cruise ship. We know exactly how many are infected there and we'll also know exacty how many die. I think that will give us the most accurate assesment of how leathal this virus is. The cruise ship, as of now, has a less than 1% fatality rate but there are still 100 active cases and 36 people seriously ill.
I follow with a quote from a WHO offical...
Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:
"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]
China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
Ok this is me again now. Are they telling us that health care in China is better than it is in the west? I think that's what this official is trying to say. This surprises me. I'm not sure that I believe that...
I follow with a quote from a WHO offical...
Bruce Aylward, World Health Organization Joint Mission to China:
"I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. [...]
People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. [...]
China got patients in treatment early and have highly sophisticated health care treatment procedures. They are really good at keeping people alive with this disease. They have a survival rate (with a mortality rate of just under 1% outside of Hubei province) for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying.
Ok this is me again now. Are they telling us that health care in China is better than it is in the west? I think that's what this official is trying to say. This surprises me. I'm not sure that I believe that...
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I've got some stuff called Hibiscrub (Chlorhexidine gluconate 4%), is that any good?
Coronavirus: Chinese scientists identify two types COVID-19
Two variants of the virus would account for varied mortality rates.
Two variants of the virus would account for varied mortality rates.
Isopropyl alcohol 70% is a very effective sanitizer:
Why Is 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) a Better Disinfectant than 99% Isopropanol, and What Is IPA Used For?
The presence of water is a crucial factor in destroying or inhibiting the growth of pathogenic microorganisms with isopropyl alcohol. Water acts as a catalyst and plays a key role in denaturing the proteins of vegetative cell membranes. 70% IPA solutions penetrate the cell wall more completely which permeates the entire cell, coagulates all proteins, and therefore the microorganism dies. Extra water content slows evaporation, therefore increasing surface contact time and enhancing effectiveness. Isopropyl alcohol concentrations over 91% coagulate proteins instantly. Consequently, a protective layer is created which protects other proteins from further coagulation.
Why Is 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) a Better Disinfectant than 99% Isopropanol, and What Is IPA Used For?
The presence of water is a crucial factor in destroying or inhibiting the growth of pathogenic microorganisms with isopropyl alcohol. Water acts as a catalyst and plays a key role in denaturing the proteins of vegetative cell membranes. 70% IPA solutions penetrate the cell wall more completely which permeates the entire cell, coagulates all proteins, and therefore the microorganism dies. Extra water content slows evaporation, therefore increasing surface contact time and enhancing effectiveness. Isopropyl alcohol concentrations over 91% coagulate proteins instantly. Consequently, a protective layer is created which protects other proteins from further coagulation.
Very correct; that is why we generally use 70% ethanol (same rules apply) in the lab for general decontamination. In fact, we go through more ethanol for decon than any other reagent. That's also why Purell is 70% ethanol as well. That said, the necessity of water for better membrane permeation is more of a consideration for molds, fungi, and bacteria. Viruses are so tiny and fragile in comparison that the added water usually isn't as necessary.
I agree. I have no idea how this fad ever got started. It's like a race to see how much hops can be crammed into beer. Many don't even taste like beer any more. Hops should be a subtle enhancement, not a punch in the face. It gives me serious stomach issues when the IBU is so frickin' high.
Reminds me of the over-the-top, jammy, way-over-oaked Australian Shiraz. Barely tastes like wine any more. Just woody-vanilla berry jam. Great way to ruin a meal.
Remember why IPA exists at all and you'll understand why some purists like it just the way it is. I like hoppy beers because my taste buds tire of all fizz, no flavour. But they also tire of the excess use of Cascade and Chinook hops which are so popular these days. Not looking for my breakfast grapefruit in my evening beer.
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Purists should realize that a traditional IPA shouldn't be anywhere close to 70-80 IBU, and should still essentially taste like beer.
There are plenty of full flavoured beers in which hops aren't the star of the show. Seems like a lot of the micro-breweries these days think they can take a lackluster recipe and just hop the crap out of it and sell it as a "craft IPA". Most of it is gut-rot.
Indeed. That grapefruit angle is what causes me so much stomach pain. So tired of it, I've started avoiding IPAs altogether because SO many of them are like that now. Often that only leaves me with 2 or 3 choices on the menu. I find myself consistently turning back to good 'ol Guinness.
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In general? Eh....
For this *specific industry-floundering illness*? Heck yeah. Another 3 months of shut-downs will put Chinese industry back a year. And their growth-based economic hopes can't handle that well.
So poor old man with bladder cancer? Give him some tea, it will resolve somehow.
Active person even suspected of having -19? PANIC! Get them tested! Get test processed! Yes? Isolate and anti-viral STAT. Wheezing? Ventilator if at all possible (and that's a central priority).
Here in Maine, the initial test didn't work, a work-around was slow, the Feds are fumbling worse than the state (fortunately Pence is figure-head not in-charge), and there may not be an idle ventilator in the county (we usually ship sick folks south). But with patience the old man with bladder cancer does get appropriate care. The woman with chest pain gets a very thorough work-up.
Charrington's IPA, Half Crown pub Benfleet, mid 70's, first pint tasted of dish water. It got better and better every following pint
Funny how different peoples tastes can be, I hate thick textured sweet mouth feel beers and love high acid 100 IBU IPA's and Belgians like Cantillon. I have never in my life eaten grapefruit any way but plain, same for yogurt. OTOH I can't stand Aussie Shiraz the way they make it today.
Economy destroying illness.
I'm supply teaching right now (once again I got into an argument with the foreman about UFO's, Giants and conspiracy theories...told him he looks better in a hard hat than in a tin foil hat...and so I got laid off once again.)
So today I told one of the full time teachers that schools were closed in Japan, S Korea, Italy and England was talking about closing schools for 3 months.
Oh yea, she said. I didn't think she was quite getting what I was trying to say. So I said, 3 months would be a long time to go without a paycheque. You could almost see the blood drain from her face.
Her - "We'd still get paid if the close schools here, right?"
Me - "I doubt that."
She became very quite after that...
Got to say that we can't stand some of the stuff they ship to the US either.
Having spent time in the Ausie tropics and desert regions however I now must have chilled reds. Failing that, at a restaurant for example, will ask for an ice bucket and ice to add to the glass - no accounting for taste as they say.
The entire area of genomics and resistance has fascinated me for two decades (it doesn't become easier when your wife is a molecular biologist and every snippet of an explanation is like a few hundred pages of "War and Peace") -- when I started donating platelets for newborn babies, cancer and HIV patients, I was found to be a highly desired donor for some kind of CMV reason. It seems that some small and specific groups of Europeans became highly plague resistant, not others. Perhaps their communities suffered catastrophic morbidity yet some survived.
Gonna turn on the telly and watch "The Seventh Seal" again and again.
Oh, we also have the alcohol dehydrogenase gene and pee vinegar .
Gonna turn on the telly and watch "The Seventh Seal" again and again.
Oh, we also have the alcohol dehydrogenase gene and pee vinegar
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