Just as a point of reference, 18,000 to 46,000 deaths related to the common influenza anticipated for the US between Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020:
2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC
2019-2020 U.S. Flu Season: Preliminary Burden Estimates | CDC
While not contagious in the regular sense, the global statistics for deaths from malaria make even those numbers pale by comparison.
This could easily turn into a contest of “best” Google search results, but for all those folks setting their hair on fire over CoVid19 there are probably a dozen more deadly diseases - many of which are life-style related- to which industrialized nations have become inured.
If this particular virus didn’t outbreak in a major foci in the globalized manufacturing and supply chain network that has evolved in the last few decades, how much media attention would it receive.
Gotta be an ulcer making time for stock market day traders.
This could easily turn into a contest of “best” Google search results, but for all those folks setting their hair on fire over CoVid19 there are probably a dozen more deadly diseases - many of which are life-style related- to which industrialized nations have become inured.
If this particular virus didn’t outbreak in a major foci in the globalized manufacturing and supply chain network that has evolved in the last few decades, how much media attention would it receive.
Gotta be an ulcer making time for stock market day traders.
Just now there are about1700 official cov-19 infections in Italy. About 140 of them are seriously ill and have to stay in hospital.About 85 of those get artifical respiration.
There may be a lack of respiratory devices, sooner or later, if the infection rate grows fast.
There is no need to panic, its not Ebola but it seems a bit more harmful than a simple flu.
There may be a lack of respiratory devices, sooner or later, if the infection rate grows fast.
There is no need to panic, its not Ebola but it seems a bit more harmful than a simple flu.
Currently it appears that about 1/3 of any population will get infected and of those about 12.5% will need intensive care.
For the US that would mean 100 million get infected and 12.5 million would need intensive care.
If the US has 12.5 million intensive care beds they will have nothing to worry about and the death rate will remain at <3%. If they don't the local death rate can be potentially much higher ie somewhere between 3 and 12% or in numbers that would be 3 to 12 million deaths. Makes the flu reference look laughably harmless...
For the US that would mean 100 million get infected and 12.5 million would need intensive care.
If the US has 12.5 million intensive care beds they will have nothing to worry about and the death rate will remain at <3%. If they don't the local death rate can be potentially much higher ie somewhere between 3 and 12% or in numbers that would be 3 to 12 million deaths. Makes the flu reference look laughably harmless...
in any given year 7-9% of US population is infected with influenza -- most often no extraordinary steps are taken to halt its spread. Hand sanitizer is sold out (isopropyl alchohol is a good substitute!)
A month ago we (our tiny US specialty chem biz) cancelled a trip to HK, JP and SK. This morning news comes our way that travel to Europe is being curtailed by many large US businesses.
Factors which influence infection transmission include population density, humidity and mutations in the virus/RNA/DNA. Interesting though, population density and severity are inversely related.
Honestly, I truly couldn't say. Yeah, I know that sounds wishy-washy, but I won't lie to you guys. If I was forced to place a bet though, I would say that they are likely to be effective. The reason is the class of virus.
Coronaviruses survive by infecting as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, and then hiding in a small percentage of carriers during the "off season". This is similar to measles, influenzas, and poxes; but is in contrast to other viruses like HIV, Herpes, and Hepatitis which survive better by infecting much smaller numbers of people but persisting by hiding from the immune system. That is one of the main reasons we don't have good vaccines against those viruses. A vaccine works by inducing a strong immune response, which is moot if the virus successfully "hides" from the immune system. Which is one of several reasons why there is a large, circular divot in a desk in my old PhD lab in the shape of my forehead.
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Also, someone asked if UV lights are effective, but I can't find it. Yes, UV light is effective at sterilization of many microbes and viruses. In fact, most bio labs have UV lights in our "tissue culture" hoods that we turn on after every session. That said, most UV lights that you might buy normally either aren't the right kind (wrong wavelength of light - ie. black lights) or aren't powerful enough.
It works differently from the oxidizers like bleach and O3, or from soaps and alcohols that destroy lipid membranes and proteins. UV light transfers too much energy to the nucleic acids of cells and viruses; RNA in the case of the coronavirus. This causes the RNA chain (or DNA) to break in many places making it unusable to the organism. That's also why we get sunburns (and cancer), DNA damage to the skin cells.
It works differently from the oxidizers like bleach and O3, or from soaps and alcohols that destroy lipid membranes and proteins. UV light transfers too much energy to the nucleic acids of cells and viruses; RNA in the case of the coronavirus. This causes the RNA chain (or DNA) to break in many places making it unusable to the organism. That's also why we get sunburns (and cancer), DNA damage to the skin cells.
What! More people not dying prematurely?? Where are we going to keep all those induhviduhals??
BTW Each year about 2000 induhviduhals die in the US from a severe cold/flu. Nobody seems to want to quarantine anyone with a cough. So far.
I bet that when they would have called the Corona virus something like 'another flu virus comes around .. yawn ..' nobody would have cared one bit, and business would have been as usual.
A Dutch philosopher once said: 'Man suffers most from the suffering he fears'.
Jan
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This seems to be the best writeup I have seen on how to protect yourself (and a population) from an epidemic. The Wuhan Virus: How to Stay Safe The author is a speciaslist reporter who goes to epidemic centers to observe what is happening. She seems to have survived through some pretty scary visits so these suggestions seem to work well.
The flu virus mutates readily and quite frequently you have ones that re-occur so if you had a specific flu 20 years ago you may not get the next one because the virus mutates back and forth at specific points most likely to mutate.
With this one being new it means that everybody's immune system is naïve to it so the infection rate is likely to be the same 30% everywhere.
Which makes Covid 19 substantially more dangerous than the flu.
Also each flu carrier statistically infects about 1.7 other people but with Covid 19 it is about 2.6 plus the fact that it is most infectuous before an individual displays any symptoms (unlike the previous SARS outbreak or the flu) and the virus remains alive and dangerous on surfaces for hours.
China successfully brought down the rate of transmission by being able to quickly trace and quarantine the points of contact of each infected person. In the US it's probably going to be like herding cats!
The epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins, York University and NYU believe that mortality is a function of impaired lung capacity (and age).
For some reason, the "virions" travel shorter distances in the warmer weather with droplets falling to the ground more quickly. As the sun is in the sky longer in the spring (here for those in the Northern Hemisphere) higher levels of UV kill it off. (How do you kill a protein?)
The epidemiologists at Johns Hopkins, York University and NYU believe that mortality is a function of impaired lung capacity (and age).
For some reason, the "virions" travel shorter distances in the warmer weather with droplets falling to the ground more quickly. As the sun is in the sky longer in the spring (here for those in the Northern Hemisphere) higher levels of UV kill it off. (How do you kill a protein?)
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This is the difference that most often gets lost in translation. It is the "naivete" of the immune system to this kind of coronavirus that is the most dangerous aspect of this outbreak. It is different enough from all the other coronaviruses we all have gotten (common colds) that all the work our immune systems have done over the years does not help. It has to start from scratch, so to speak.
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I hear you, and understand why that might be thought. You are 100% correct that many people are going to die from the flu this season (although this season is actually not the "regular" flu). But to use that as a comparison to detract from focusing on the coronavirus is a really really bad idea. It's apples and oranges.
That is exactly what was done in 1918 by many western countries trying to prevent fear and focus on the war effort. Long story short, 50 million people died in an era before cars, airplanes, overnight shipping, or a population nearing 8 billion.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2020/02/29/1918-flu-coronavirus-trump/
Please ignore the political sentiment the article attempts to highlight and focus on the history as that is all correct.
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Approximately 1/3 of Americans who were recently polled said they definitely wouldn't be buying Corona beer until the issue is resolved.
Maybe that puts into perspective why the fear-mongering works so well. A huge chunk of humanity technically qualify as morons.
My friend recently told his 19-ish year old daughter (who lives away from home in the big city) that she should make sure to wash her hands thoroughly after being in public, on public transit, etc. Her reply was "but I'm not Chinese".
The stupidity works on both sides of this issue.
Regarding supply chain issues - it always takes forever to get stuff from China to my house. In fact, going back about a year ago it could take 2-3 months to get stuff. The fact that I received some OPTs from China recently and it only took 1 month was quite amazing to me. Point is, my expectations are already so low that this virus has no effect whatsoever.
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Heller, "Catch 22" -- "just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they're not after you."
I told my sisters that the best thing we can do with my 95 year old mom in assisted living is to refrain from visiting for the next several weeks. (She's in excellent health, has a thimble-full of Jameson's each night before retiring!)
The outbreak is wreaking havoc with the ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft.
LA imports expected to be down 25% in Feb.
Port of Los Angeles Sees Coronavirus Impact Sharply Reducing Imports - WSJ
Port of Los Angeles Sees Coronavirus Impact Sharply Reducing Imports - WSJ
I distinctly remember , some 25/30 years ago when HIV was news , commenting to friends "now you´ll *have* to use condoms in all relations" and them answering "but I´m not Gay".
Way back then it was called "the Pink Pest" or something similar.
Oh well.
China also locked down every major city for 2 to 3 weeks with nobody allowed out on the streets willy nilly.
Probably not gonna happen in the US.
Mortality is also a function of the care received. 12% will need to be on oxygen and in more or less intensive care. That's why the Chinese built huge hospitals in double quick time.
You can't kill a protein, that's why Mad Cow Disease was such a problem.
Disinfecting or boiling did not render the protein responsible inactive.
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