All that is good except the figures are showing the CFR is actually lower in China than the rest of the world.
With due respect, I don´t see that graph shows *any* relation to smoking.
Those curves are basically parallel and would be statistically indistinguishable if superimposed.
Visible difference comes from their starting from a different original case count, a different base if you wish, and at different times.
And even so they can be matched as I say.
From a worrying point of view, it appears to show we are all the same for the virus, just free food, real estate and mating ground.
No difference because of Race, Climate, Continent or Religion, let alone Political system.
Note: I am not talking Religion or Politics, and in fact dissing they have any significant influence.
The d*mn bug couldn´t care less.
Note 2: in fact I do not think there is a thing such as "Race".
The visible external features which mean so much to many are less than insignificant (genetically).
A question. When the word soap is used, are we really referring to detergents? Are they equally effective?
Generally, yes, the active ingredient of a soap being a surfactant/detergent. In so many cases that sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS; also known as sodium laurel sulfate), but there are plenty of other compositions of (generally) amphoteric compounds (we use a bunch of them depending on our needs at work). Soaps tend to have wide band effects so they knock out a ton of different pathways simultaneously, doubly beneficial to efficacy and being difficult to evolved resistance to.
Ethanol hits other pathways, and bleach, well, bleach just rips through organics with impunity. So it's highly effective, but also good at destroying you in the process.
Ethanol hits other pathways, and bleach, well, bleach just rips through organics with impunity. So it's highly effective, but also good at destroying you in the process.
This is exactly correct; couldn't have put it better myself! In fact, I am cleaning my bench with SDS right now as it destroys proteins and I am isolating RNA (which some proteins called RNAses would destroy).
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.
PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE
Cardiovascular disease
10.5%
Diabetes
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
6.3%
Hypertension
6.0%
Cancer
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
You can think of smoking as a pre-existing condition. A type of chronic respiratory disease....
This is truly an important Biology takeaway. In terms of genetics, humans are exceedingly close to each other; far more than other mammalian species. Most likely this is due to a "bottleneck" event way far back in our history prior to our emigration around and from Africa.
Based on our knowledge of sequence drift and anthropological evidence, estimates suggest we were down to a few thousand members for quite some time. As such, the differences between people of different "races" are hilariously tiny. I remember a talk some time ago where the speaker (a big geneticist) mentioned that two mice, of the same species, gathered from the same field had 1000 times the genetic "space" between them than any two humans ever would.
I took an undergrad in genetic engineering and we were taught that there was esentially no real difference between the races and that infact there were really no "races."
But now I'm beginning to believe that race has something to do with who our ancestors mated with....
"There is evidence for interbreeding between archaic and modern humans during the Middle Paleolithic and early Upper Paleolithic. The interbreeding happened in several independent events that included Neanderthals and Denisovans, as well as several unidentified hominins."
Race is sorta like different coat colours on animals...not really significant but very interesting if you're interested in early hominids.
But now I'm beginning to believe that race has something to do with who our ancestors mated with....
"There is evidence for interbreeding between archaic and modern humans during the Middle Paleolithic and early Upper Paleolithic. The interbreeding happened in several independent events that included Neanderthals and Denisovans, as well as several unidentified hominins."
Race is sorta like different coat colours on animals...not really significant but very interesting if you're interested in early hominids.
Unfortunately, my answer sucks because you're all right. It depends on how one classifies a "strain". Is a single point mutation among 30,000 a different strain? I say no, but some disagree with me.
So far, there has been evidence of some genetic drift; but we don't yet have real functional evidence that any of these mutations incur a "fitness advantage". But that doesn't mean there isn't one!! In fact, I am on an Ebola paper where we found that a single point mutation spontaneously appeared in the 2013 epidemic that quickly became the dominant isolate. When we tested the infectivity of the different mutants, we found that the new point mutant had higher infectivity in humans. That means that the outbreak was significant enough to have the virus adapt towards humans as a primary host. I have no doubt that, when all is said and done and we have enough data to test, that we will find that the SARS-CoV-2 is adapting to us as well. We just don't know it yet.
If the video isn't region locked BBC Our Secret Universe The Hidden Life of the Cell - video dailymotion is an interesting 57 minutes of TV. Basically what happens when some new virus research comes along just as the BBC has some spare CGI budget. It's an animated infection of a cell. Some bits of it completely blew my mind. Like how the virus not only steals a ride on the cells internal transport network, but steals TWO rides so it can not only reverse, but also uses this to get torn apart to inject the genetic material where it needs to.
Mad for something that's not alive by normal definitions...
Mad for something that's not alive by normal definitions...
I just read that. Scary. But hopefully the right move.
I worry that the uk govt have stated their aim is just to delay the worst till the summer. But that may be the best they can do...
I worry that the uk govt have stated their aim is just to delay the worst till the summer. But that may be the best they can do...
With all due respect, I make my living with probability and statistics. As I mentioned previously, when I get off track my wife, who taught bio-statistics, will rein me in.
High incidence of smoking may make the virus more able to insituate itself in the lungs of smokers.
What we do know. SKorea is following the pattern of China and flat-lining.
WRT race, it is largely a sociological construct, agreed.
May, yes. There is not enough data at the moment. There is already some data published in Intensive Care Medicine that shows mortality, even among ICU admissions is strongly correlated to age. Other predictors of death include levels of cardiac troponin, myoglobin, CRP, and IL-6 in those patients.
No one is going to deny that smoking is bad for you and probably worsens your outcome with this disease. However, if smoking were a chief factor, then you would expect to see young smokers dying since there are large numbers of them in China. They aren't.
I understand you have a professional background in probability and statistics, so you should know that there is no data so far that supports your hypothesis.
I have no hypothesis and no conclusion, all I have is the casual relationship between smokers and incidence, and I picked it up from epidemiologists consulting JP Morgan in NY....NYU, Johns Hopkins etc.
You don't need a actuarial-level expertise to use stat to price options, or value probable outcomes in bankruptcy cases.
Unless that data supporting the causal relationship is private and you can't disclose it, then you're merely shooting from the hip based on what's currently published. Nothing wrong with that, but would be better without appeals to authority.
I will note that there is a preprint of a Chinese paper that theorizes ACE2 (receptor for the virus) expression is higher in former smokers and current smokers of Asian descent but not current Caucasian smokers.
Bulk and Single-Cell Transcriptomics Identify Tobacco-Use Disparity in Lung Gene Expression of ACE2, the Receptor of 2019-nCov[v3] | Preprints
We'll just have to wait and see, there is not enough good data at the moment.
I will note that there is a preprint of a Chinese paper that theorizes ACE2 (receptor for the virus) expression is higher in former smokers and current smokers of Asian descent but not current Caucasian smokers.
Bulk and Single-Cell Transcriptomics Identify Tobacco-Use Disparity in Lung Gene Expression of ACE2, the Receptor of 2019-nCov[v3] | Preprints
We'll just have to wait and see, there is not enough good data at the moment.
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Link coming in from a physician friend: Megathread: COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 - March 9th, 2020 : medicine
Won't get into the whole smoking thing too beyond it would not be too much of a stretch, given the respiratory distress involved. Those do take a while to accumulate, so yes, you'd see it in older individuals. Honestly the number of deaths for younger folk have been low enough that the effect may still be lost in the noise, whereas its showing to be an increased risk factor in the older population. Second, we're starting to see more and more younger folks run out of physiological reserve and present statistics may be quickly updated. We will see. So far younger folk and kids have been safer.
Won't get into the whole smoking thing too beyond it would not be too much of a stretch, given the respiratory distress involved. Those do take a while to accumulate, so yes, you'd see it in older individuals. Honestly the number of deaths for younger folk have been low enough that the effect may still be lost in the noise, whereas its showing to be an increased risk factor in the older population. Second, we're starting to see more and more younger folks run out of physiological reserve and present statistics may be quickly updated. We will see. So far younger folk and kids have been safer.
What I'd like to know is if it's effective to "health up" as much as possible, prior to taking on this viral infection.
I would think some cardio /respiratory capability might go some way to fending off this one, compared to "sedentary" with a "smoking" complication.
Personally, I've been trying to run. Jog, actually. 4 years ago I was running 7ks, but last year, after an RP operation, that fell to about a mile, as I did and do feel weakened after hospitalization.
Trying to get back to that level and taking liberty with a gentle progress, finding it comes back quickly. I'll build up endurance as best I can before it comes my way. Hopefully - at 63 - I'll survive it.
I would think some cardio /respiratory capability might go some way to fending off this one, compared to "sedentary" with a "smoking" complication.
Personally, I've been trying to run. Jog, actually. 4 years ago I was running 7ks, but last year, after an RP operation, that fell to about a mile, as I did and do feel weakened after hospitalization.
Trying to get back to that level and taking liberty with a gentle progress, finding it comes back quickly. I'll build up endurance as best I can before it comes my way. Hopefully - at 63 - I'll survive it.
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