And the “insurance” you get is garbage - the chickenshit policy through work tried to weasel its way out of the whole thing when I was hit by a car on my bike in February. Yeah, it may be the drivers fault but try collecting (they are still trying, unsuccessfully, good luck to them). Still left me with 4 grand in deductibles. My auto/home insurer has been after me to buy (relatively inexpensive) umbrella coverage which would pay for virtually *any* accident no questions asked regardless of who is at fault. I think it would do better than medical coverage since that is about the only real need. You’re either strong and healthy enough to just go without doctors or you’re not, for the most part.
Yes it is. Doesn't pay a penny until you've paid $15-20 grand out of pocket.
Since I quit working I haven't paid a dime out of pocket to go to the doctor, and I've been going as often as once a week lately.
What's the point of working? Uncle Sam forced me to retire early. The system is beyond absurd.
Global big picture or USA big picture. They are two very different things after all.
Back on topic, I expressed myself in another thread that the current semi shortage is here to stay, and suspecting that some monkey businesses are making a good coin by speculating the existing stocks and forecasts.
Nevertheless, I am much more concerned about perspectives of the, for example, Nvidia ARM acquisition (for $40B). This move may have a catastrophic impact on the electronics industry, if Nvidia touches the open-licensing<*> ARM model (which they probably try, I don't see any other business driver behind this acquisition). Can anyone imagine that about 160B (yes, billion) devices on this planet are currently running on an ARM core platform?
Now that US joined the group of European countries investigating into this deal, I hope the regulatory forces will somehow take care and minimize the impact, but IMO this trend of consolidations in the device/semi industry has to stop, since it cannot ultimately bring any benefits to the consumers, in the long term.
<*> Open licensing doesn't mean "free" in this context, but "non customer preferential". One OEM dare to touch the Nvidia market share by using some 3rd party innovative product, there goes the ARM license for the OEM offender, unless he returns to the Nvidia product.
Nevertheless, I am much more concerned about perspectives of the, for example, Nvidia ARM acquisition (for $40B). This move may have a catastrophic impact on the electronics industry, if Nvidia touches the open-licensing<*> ARM model (which they probably try, I don't see any other business driver behind this acquisition). Can anyone imagine that about 160B (yes, billion) devices on this planet are currently running on an ARM core platform?
Now that US joined the group of European countries investigating into this deal, I hope the regulatory forces will somehow take care and minimize the impact, but IMO this trend of consolidations in the device/semi industry has to stop, since it cannot ultimately bring any benefits to the consumers, in the long term.
<*> Open licensing doesn't mean "free" in this context, but "non customer preferential". One OEM dare to touch the Nvidia market share by using some 3rd party innovative product, there goes the ARM license for the OEM offender, unless he returns to the Nvidia product.
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That's USA big picture, but for better or for worse, USA big picture has a fairly significant impact on the global big picture.
The part of the shortage that really can't stay (at least if we don't want to have huge problems going forward) is the shortage of common-place parts. Things like STM32s and op-amps that get used in practically everything.
A shortage of automotive processor chips is one thing, a shortage of jellybean microcontrollers is another.
A shortage of automotive processor chips is one thing, a shortage of jellybean microcontrollers is another.
This sounds like 2000 all over again. Everyone went nuts and by April the following year the o/bks were gone. It took 2 years to climb out of that one and lots of folks carried excess capacity. Buyers screwed the prices down ('distressed asset pricing'
) and fabs took big depreciation charges on cap utilization that barely covered costs.Most of the guys that lived through that have retired. Lessons forgotten and have to be relearned
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It will be interesting to watch RISC-V developing. I know the chinese are investing heavily in it (unsuprising) and I read that it's starting to affect the ARM roadmap in small ways. I suspect a good 30% of the hype is companies making sure that they keep ARM behaving. But in 10 years time things might be different. Certainly ARM's market to lose.
Mind you always good having the fruity firm fully bought into you, at least until they arent' ...
Seems crazy that nVidia can be valued at $500 billion on $16 billion sales.
ARM has to stay independent because of its business model - I hope its blocked. I wonder what Apple would say if they were acquired - don't think Tim Cook or Samsung would be happy.
Some things are best left alone so that everyone can enjoy them
ARM has to stay independent because of its business model - I hope its blocked. I wonder what Apple would say if they were acquired - don't think Tim Cook or Samsung would be happy.
Some things are best left alone so that everyone can enjoy them
Here Panasonic paid 2.5 times annual sales to buy out Anchor, with a five year no compete clause.
It makes switches, fan regulators, lighting related stuff, electric meters, totally different from what Panasonic does.
The original owners are back as Great White, both are doing well.
But I feel Panasonic paid too much.
TI had a RISC line, as did Cyrix, and Intel, those did not progress so much, possibly because ARM devices run Linux better.
Anyway, ARM income was about $ 1.33 billion or so from royalties in 2017...paying $40 billion is silly in my opinion.
And their danger is their DARPA links, the USA will restrict use by say Chinese, and they are now at the design stage in electronics, well past the monkey stage (the Chinese and the Koreans).
Huawei made their own OS, for cell phones, so has Samsung.
Huawei did it because they were blocked from using Android by the US government. They thumbed their noses, so to speak, and built their own OS and suitable processors. For them ARM is irrelevant now. And they are not bound by licenses, and are free to compete.
Think what will happen if ST, TI and Samsung build their own chips with another architecture.... Bang goes more than 50% of their license revenue.
And once those people make their own devices, no need for ARM, most users do not program the devices, just change the settings.
And nobody likes it if a competitor controls your intellectual property, which is how Apple operates, most of the actual manufacturing is farmed out.
Let the elephants fight, stay out of the way.
Seems bean counter manipulation, Softbank bought it, and it is being sold, everybody makes a bonus, and a huge profit.
Never mind if the valuation is unreal.
It makes switches, fan regulators, lighting related stuff, electric meters, totally different from what Panasonic does.
The original owners are back as Great White, both are doing well.
But I feel Panasonic paid too much.
TI had a RISC line, as did Cyrix, and Intel, those did not progress so much, possibly because ARM devices run Linux better.
Anyway, ARM income was about $ 1.33 billion or so from royalties in 2017...paying $40 billion is silly in my opinion.
And their danger is their DARPA links, the USA will restrict use by say Chinese, and they are now at the design stage in electronics, well past the monkey stage (the Chinese and the Koreans).
Huawei made their own OS, for cell phones, so has Samsung.
Huawei did it because they were blocked from using Android by the US government. They thumbed their noses, so to speak, and built their own OS and suitable processors. For them ARM is irrelevant now. And they are not bound by licenses, and are free to compete.
Think what will happen if ST, TI and Samsung build their own chips with another architecture.... Bang goes more than 50% of their license revenue.
And once those people make their own devices, no need for ARM, most users do not program the devices, just change the settings.
And nobody likes it if a competitor controls your intellectual property, which is how Apple operates, most of the actual manufacturing is farmed out.
Let the elephants fight, stay out of the way.
Seems bean counter manipulation, Softbank bought it, and it is being sold, everybody makes a bonus, and a huge profit.
Never mind if the valuation is unreal.
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Bonnie,
2 years worth of inventory? I just bought one years worth for my anticipated needs. But I suspect you may be right and I need to double down. For my needs I am able to substitute some overstocked parts for non critical spots. But I still need some of the unobtanium stuff. Current quotes are around one year lead time.
I also see redesign around vanilla parts as a safety measure.
Also previously ordered parts are having the delivery date extended.
To make things interesting my slowest pay customer has parts not yet paid for destined for a project the news says will close by March.
Gets interesting.
2 years worth of inventory? I just bought one years worth for my anticipated needs. But I suspect you may be right and I need to double down. For my needs I am able to substitute some overstocked parts for non critical spots. But I still need some of the unobtanium stuff. Current quotes are around one year lead time.
I also see redesign around vanilla parts as a safety measure.
Also previously ordered parts are having the delivery date extended.
To make things interesting my slowest pay customer has parts not yet paid for destined for a project the news says will close by March.
Gets interesting.
Does anyone have any insight in the silicone carbide transistor side of the business? They're all the rage in solar but have become harder to source from the usual outlets.
I must say, this is one of the more intriguing threads, very interesting to hear from all you folks from inside the trade.
I must say, this is one of the more intriguing threads, very interesting to hear from all you folks from inside the trade.
Simon, yes. In retrospect (> 20 yrs later) where did the semi guys think all that product was going to go? At the end of the day, only so many cars TV's and mobiles can be built every week.
I went to see many customers (and in the 2010 crunch in Japan as well when there was another semi 'shortage') to explain to them they didn't need a years inventory - they only built x gadgets a week. So 7-10 days buffer and then regular drop shipments.
I once had a delivery problem to an auto Tier 1 customer in Germany and was summoned to explain. They locked me in a room and told me 'no lunch until you get a confirmed delivery date for our parts'. I pulled stuff from somewhere else for them and only after I got a email that it was on its way did they let me out. Semi allocation = Fun times and nice bonus I loved it.
I went to see many customers (and in the 2010 crunch in Japan as well when there was another semi 'shortage') to explain to them they didn't need a years inventory - they only built x gadgets a week. So 7-10 days buffer and then regular drop shipments.
I once had a delivery problem to an auto Tier 1 customer in Germany and was summoned to explain. They locked me in a room and told me 'no lunch until you get a confirmed delivery date for our parts'. I pulled stuff from somewhere else for them and only after I got a email that it was on its way did they let me out. Semi allocation = Fun times and nice bonus
I loved it.
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Simon: Maybe time to talk with Tony Soprano. Government is just well organized violence, and war is just the failure of diplomacy.
Before the invasion, the US could have purchased Iraq for 100 billion $US, three times GNP plus 10 billion $US to the dictator to go live in the south of France, somewhere nice. Would have been a bargain.
Will we be fighting near-future wars over some other near-future resource with some near-future US President in power? "Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."
Holidays, can't live with 'em, can't kill 'em,
Chris
Before the invasion, the US could have purchased Iraq for 100 billion $US, three times GNP plus 10 billion $US to the dictator to go live in the south of France, somewhere nice. Would have been a bargain.
Will we be fighting near-future wars over some other near-future resource with some near-future US President in power? "Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss."
Holidays, can't live with 'em, can't kill 'em,
Chris
Yes, and things are changing fast here.
The bean counters must be mighty desperate to allow manufacturing to be set up in the US again. This will affect the world market and it will affect geopolitics too. I hope it has a stabilizing effect on markets and a positive effect on foreign relations.