<---- and the funny looking guy wins! 
I can't help myself to notice a lot of the winners are long time members here so their extra weighting (higher # of tickets) does make a difference in the odds of winning.
What this means as Jason says, as these 'heavy hitters' are out, it increases the winning odds for those left in the the pool.
hrm.. Zen Mod & pico have a Plan B if they don't win?
I can't help myself to notice a lot of the winners are long time members here so their extra weighting (higher # of tickets) does make a difference in the odds of winning.
What this means as Jason says, as these 'heavy hitters' are out, it increases the winning odds for those left in the the pool.
hrm.. Zen Mod & pico have a Plan B if they don't win?
well, there is crucial moment, when every Empire starts crumbling down..... though US Immigration office wasn't aware of that
......
hrm.. Zen Mod & pico have a Plan B if they don't win?
ZM won them all, preliminary, you can call me Omnisoftie from now
there is more food for thought here than I can wrap my head around yet. A lot of passive members or just one time lookers seem to have gotten attracted to enter the lottery.
I doubt that many even understood the amp specs and have the right application in mind. But the thrill of getting something that others also want seems to have contributed to a great turn out.
We all here are for spreading the joy of this hobby, but really... there are sooo many great designs and info available here to get started in this hobby ANY TIME, not only when there is a blast email notification of some lottery draw.
I am interested to see how many will stick around for longer and show interest in any of the group buys or semi-kits prepared by different members.
Vfet is not be all and end all amp and with 10dB gain probably not even the best choice for an average user. So for those interested: stick around, ask more, understand what speaker calls for what kind of amp and take a few first steps on a long journey (Papa has led some here for 25 years easily with ever new amp flavors). luDEf, F7 etc all waiting for the Vfet spell to finish.
At those organizing the lottery: those who got their feet wet with say an ACA build could be promoted to more tickets. Just another idea..
I doubt that many even understood the amp specs and have the right application in mind. But the thrill of getting something that others also want seems to have contributed to a great turn out.
We all here are for spreading the joy of this hobby, but really... there are sooo many great designs and info available here to get started in this hobby ANY TIME, not only when there is a blast email notification of some lottery draw.
I am interested to see how many will stick around for longer and show interest in any of the group buys or semi-kits prepared by different members.
Vfet is not be all and end all amp and with 10dB gain probably not even the best choice for an average user. So for those interested: stick around, ask more, understand what speaker calls for what kind of amp and take a few first steps on a long journey (Papa has led some here for 25 years easily with ever new amp flavors). luDEf, F7 etc all waiting for the Vfet spell to finish.
At those organizing the lottery: those who got their feet wet with say an ACA build could be promoted to more tickets. Just another idea..
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That is a really harsh accusation to make, after everyone both winners and those on stand-by for the second batch have actually praised the organization.
Perhaps your best hint is on the summary provided by Jason in the winners announcement:
-----------------------
Count of members with N tickets (before the lottery / after the lottery):
400+: (2 / 0)
100 ~ 399: (20 / 4)
10 ~ 99: (193 / 141)
2 ~ 10: (382 / 369)
1: (831 / 826)
------------------------
So, how do you read this summary? There were 2 members that held more than 400 tickets each. That means they have hundreds of threads in the Pass Labs forum they have participated in. Also they can have donations or not. Since the forum is 20 years old, your maximum for-donation tickets was 20, so they have literally, hundreds of threads they participated in. Of those 2, both got an amp on the first lottery.
The second group are people with 100 to 399 tickets. There were 20 on that band. Of those 16 got amps, 4 didn't. If nothing changes in the picking system, they will most likely get one in the second batch, but nothing is assured, ever with odds.
Of the third band, people with 10 to 99 tickets, there were 193 users. Of those, 52 got the amp, 141 didn't.
Do you start to see the trend? On the fourth band, there were 382 members, of which only 13 got amps, the other 369 didn't. Finally, the vast majority were people with a single ticket. That means: they enter the lottery thread, not a single post in the Pass Labs forum before April 1st and not a single donation. From those 831 only 5 got amps.
This is not smoke and mirrors, it's plain and simple odds calculations. You can know to which band you belonged by searching your posts on the Pass Labs forum from 1 week and earlier. And you know your donations, if any.
With that data, you can know if you were one of the 4 of the second band, one of the 141 on the third band, one of the 369 on the fourth or one of the 826 of the last band.
If you are one of the 4 in the second band, your chances were high, you got a bit unlucky. If you are in any of the other bands, your chances were really slim.
Accusing this of being chosen requires to first undergo this analysis before you claim such a thing. I know it's a bit difficult coming from me, as I am one of the incredibly lucky, but I don't think you thought your comment thoroughly.
Best,
Rafa.
Pass DIY Addict
Joined 2000
Paid Member
I did some quick analysis after Jason posted the numbers.
Sure, it was clear from the beginning that the people that have posted in 300+ or 400+ threads stood a pretty good chance, so this is not a surprising outcome at all. For me, the real surprise comes from looking at the opposite end: those who have posted in only 2-10 threads - they each had a 1 in 30 chance (3.4% likelihood) of winning. These are really pretty good chances overall for such a special prize.
It seems that most of the 100+ thread posters are out of the running now, so the remaining odds for the second round are much more even.
Sure, it was clear from the beginning that the people that have posted in 300+ or 400+ threads stood a pretty good chance, so this is not a surprising outcome at all. For me, the real surprise comes from looking at the opposite end: those who have posted in only 2-10 threads - they each had a 1 in 30 chance (3.4% likelihood) of winning. These are really pretty good chances overall for such a special prize.
It seems that most of the 100+ thread posters are out of the running now, so the remaining odds for the second round are much more even.
Same part, different polarity. From what I’ve read, it shouldn’t make much difference with these parts and topology. At least subjectively.
While some people will complain about the end result of the lottery, there is good reason why those who participated more in the forum (who are most likely long term members) will have better odds at winning.
My concern is if a large % of the winners come from the category of "random lurkers", they may not genuinely continue in building this new VFet amp - but have different intentions. As you say there are many 'other' great designs but not many that come with the name, "Oh Mr Nelson Pass has this new amplifier coming out". The temptation that maybe there's a buck to be made out of it despite we're doing this for charitable causes.
I would not be surprised if there will be a fair # of these VFet kits ending up in places like eBay / AudioMart / & other online auctions or even sold at various retail outlets around the world. Though, there is 1 major thing going for it - the VFets are unobtanium... or will that just only increase the price of the amp just like in collectable art?
Vfet lottery discussion
In any game of chance winners concede luck
Those who “lose” claim impropriety. Yes this lottery had headstarts for certain parties. BUT Jason is a principled fair minded person who tried to equitably offer a limited resource to everyone in the way he felt was most fair. We can debate what decisions he made but NOT his character-he did his best. That’s all anyone can ask
In any game of chance winners concede luck
Those who “lose” claim impropriety. Yes this lottery had headstarts for certain parties. BUT Jason is a principled fair minded person who tried to equitably offer a limited resource to everyone in the way he felt was most fair. We can debate what decisions he made but NOT his character-he did his best. That’s all anyone can ask
Don’t worry be happy
This project is such a nice gesture by Nelson, Jason, Tim and others who have contributed their time and efforts into making it available. There’s still the N channel names to be drawn and then the empty kits. Let’s keep this positive, there’s nothing to be upset about. One can still purchase VFETs from Pras and Watanabe and join one of the various threads discussing alternate designs. lhquan sit-3x, zen mod defisit & sissy-sit
This project is such a nice gesture by Nelson, Jason, Tim and others who have contributed their time and efforts into making it available. There’s still the N channel names to be drawn and then the empty kits. Let’s keep this positive, there’s nothing to be upset about. One can still purchase VFETs from Pras and Watanabe and join one of the various threads discussing alternate designs. lhquan sit-3x, zen mod defisit & sissy-sit