Rereading the description of the launch I see that its split into two groups of 90 for a total of 180, and you're right about the second sign up window. We will have to wait and see what happens.
No, the biggest problem with that odds calculation is the second and third lines cited by Ben Mah: one additional ticket for EACH THREAD you have participated, and one for each year you have been a paying member.
So, I, for example, have 17 tickets total: 1 for my entry, and 16 due to threads. Others can have north of 100 tickets. So the amount of tickets for the lottery are nowhere near 1108, even before the second batch in a few hours.
It is also very true (and very intentional!) that not everyone has the same chance to win. Frequent contributors to different threads and paying members will have much, much better chances than sporadic contributors.
So, I, for example, have 17 tickets total: 1 for my entry, and 16 due to threads. Others can have north of 100 tickets. So the amount of tickets for the lottery are nowhere near 1108, even before the second batch in a few hours.
It is also very true (and very intentional!) that not everyone has the same chance to win. Frequent contributors to different threads and paying members will have much, much better chances than sporadic contributors.
Yeah, once again, I left NJ pay2play only to come here and find everything is totally rigged to favor the diyaudio establishment. 😀 😉
I think I have around 36 tickets and I'm a very moderate participant. I would guess they're many with well over 100 perhaps 100's of tickets.
first 3 names I recognized had approximately:
120 tickets
756 tickets
210 tickets
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I did make some naive assumptions and guesstimates in the final chosen methods of bonus ticket allocation without looking at any query results beforehand.
The original idea was to give somewhat similar weighting to donors and thread conversational participants. Everyone has their own way to contribute, some people are introverts but still made the effort to contribute to the site through their financial support. It was originally per-post based (scaling in a semi-complicated log fashion), but changed at the last minute to once-per-thread to reward those who have participated in a wide variety of things rather than one. Seemed logical. However now I have seen the results of some initial queries, it will certainly heavily favor PL forums' participants. Not a bad thing, especially if we want to see a lot of amps get made and the most passionate long term PL supporters get first crack at the whip.
We will see how the cards fall once the winners are chosen, and possibly review the method used when batch 2 winners are chosen in a few months. This is all an iterative learning process, and as time goes on we'll get better at everything 🙂
The original idea was to give somewhat similar weighting to donors and thread conversational participants. Everyone has their own way to contribute, some people are introverts but still made the effort to contribute to the site through their financial support. It was originally per-post based (scaling in a semi-complicated log fashion), but changed at the last minute to once-per-thread to reward those who have participated in a wide variety of things rather than one. Seemed logical. However now I have seen the results of some initial queries, it will certainly heavily favor PL forums' participants. Not a bad thing, especially if we want to see a lot of amps get made and the most passionate long term PL supporters get first crack at the whip.
We will see how the cards fall once the winners are chosen, and possibly review the method used when batch 2 winners are chosen in a few months. This is all an iterative learning process, and as time goes on we'll get better at everything 🙂
Jason- my above post was just fun and curiosity. This whole thing is super fun and anyway y'all decide to do it is fine.
We're all just lucky to have this place!
We're all just lucky to have this place!
I was envisioning numbers like 120 or even 200. But 756? Wow! That really is something!
...
»Sorry for the lack of completeness in the rules documentation, we'll get better at this with the next one.«
...
I quite like the second halve of this sentence 😀
Although my impression is that the team already has approached perfection.
»Sorry for the lack of completeness in the rules documentation, we'll get better at this with the next one.«
...
I quite like the second halve of this sentence 😀
Although my impression is that the team already has approached perfection.
I find that the lottery odds are an interesting topic.
As mentioned in the main thread, there are some users that will get almost 800 tickets. I myself found one with around 650, a lot have between 100 and 200. Probably most of us fall into the two digits category.
So, initial odds are very slim! But, once a big hitter like that gets his amp, it’s not one name that gets crossed... is all his 700 tickets, as he/she can’t win again! So, if a few of those get picked soon (which odds suggest there are strong chances of happening), then the field levels up. So, maybe not for the first run, but for the second there may be better odds for less frequent posters.
For this, the pool and the rules should be consistent between lotteries. If there is going to be a reset between lotteries, and new number of tickets gets calculated with a latter date, then we could face a rush of nonsense posts start showing everywhere due to people trying to up their chances, and that would be detrimental to the quality of posts in the PL forums.
I find this an interesting subject! Hope I’m not alone! 🙂
As mentioned in the main thread, there are some users that will get almost 800 tickets. I myself found one with around 650, a lot have between 100 and 200. Probably most of us fall into the two digits category.
So, initial odds are very slim! But, once a big hitter like that gets his amp, it’s not one name that gets crossed... is all his 700 tickets, as he/she can’t win again! So, if a few of those get picked soon (which odds suggest there are strong chances of happening), then the field levels up. So, maybe not for the first run, but for the second there may be better odds for less frequent posters.
For this, the pool and the rules should be consistent between lotteries. If there is going to be a reset between lotteries, and new number of tickets gets calculated with a latter date, then we could face a rush of nonsense posts start showing everywhere due to people trying to up their chances, and that would be detrimental to the quality of posts in the PL forums.
I find this an interesting subject! Hope I’m not alone! 🙂
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I do find it interesting and have no problem with the long odds. The people with the most post are also the people who have been teaching and helping us all these years.
!!!
Just out of curiosity, can I see my # of tickets? how/where? (Since it's not just the amount of contributions…)
you can get a guestimate; go to advanced search, search your user name by thread in the passlabs forum, + 1 for your lottery entry and the number of years you've been a paid member.
I came up with 33 threads I've posted in + the lottery entry + 2 years paid member = 36.
I just did that while sipping my coffee and putting music on, waiting to watch the 15 min "ozzy" rush just for fun... surprising result indeed!
Locking thread for the second window....
EDIT1: Please enter here: DIY Sony VFET lottery entry
EDIT2: And... open again.
EDIT1: Please enter here: DIY Sony VFET lottery entry
EDIT2: And... open again.
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