As if there was any doubt about price gouging and the ongoing speculations (rather than inventory crisis), here's an infuriating example:
Two months apart, Dec 2021 vs. Feb. 2022, while the semi "crisis" is ongoing. An about 228% price increase. This is from DigiKey and Mouser, not AliBaba or EBay.
Two months apart, Dec 2021 vs. Feb. 2022, while the semi "crisis" is ongoing. An about 228% price increase. This is from DigiKey and Mouser, not AliBaba or EBay.
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Offer/demand, simply good old capitalism 🙂 Problem being that is also goes for fuel, energy, houses and food.....
Add the daily returning climate crisis to that (OUR fault and of course our children fault so they must be taught at young age) and Covid... A recipe for happiness 😀
Add the daily returning climate crisis to that (OUR fault and of course our children fault so they must be taught at young age) and Covid... A recipe for happiness 😀
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Ino
But as Jean Paul mentions, it’s the offer and demand market mechanism.
However what I completely fail to understand is why all those chips that were readily available up to some recent point in time, now all of a sudden are scarce or have impossible lead times.
Where in the process did this hick-up originate:
is it a lack of personal to operate the machines, are the production machines no longer operational because of failing support, is it because the machines are used for other mass products like mobile phones chips and/or cars chips or whatever ??
And even more important, how long will it take to recover to decent supply times?
Hans
A factor 2.28 is 128% in price increase, true ?
But as Jean Paul mentions, it’s the offer and demand market mechanism.
However what I completely fail to understand is why all those chips that were readily available up to some recent point in time, now all of a sudden are scarce or have impossible lead times.
Where in the process did this hick-up originate:
is it a lack of personal to operate the machines, are the production machines no longer operational because of failing support, is it because the machines are used for other mass products like mobile phones chips and/or cars chips or whatever ??
And even more important, how long will it take to recover to decent supply times?
Hans
Very good questions. Look at Raspberry Pi devices. Not a single (new) one can be found which is rather unusual for mass production devices.
Simple standard and much used parts are all gone all of a sudden and old obsolete stuff from decades ago still can be found?!?! Fishy.
Simple standard and much used parts are all gone all of a sudden and old obsolete stuff from decades ago still can be found?!?! Fishy.
Biological warfare / Covid?
The machine operators have disappeared, some died, some stayed home and found new jobs.
Also you are dealing with the fact that much of the production is in China, and surrounding countries like Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia and so on.
The disruption caused by container shortages has also been unbelievable.
Read up on Long Beach / Los Angeles port situation, piles of containers. no crane operators.
Turn around times went from days to months.
And without empty containers, the new product cannot be sent.
The empty to be containers were stuck at the customers, and full of things, not enough people to empty them.
Then the third Covid wave came.
Grin and bear it, nothing you can do about it.
The fact is that most of us buy tiny quantities of obscure parts, pressure from large customers like cell phones and car is much than from us hobby people.
Their values are in billions, we might buy a few thousand worth. No competition.
The machine operators have disappeared, some died, some stayed home and found new jobs.
Also you are dealing with the fact that much of the production is in China, and surrounding countries like Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia and so on.
The disruption caused by container shortages has also been unbelievable.
Read up on Long Beach / Los Angeles port situation, piles of containers. no crane operators.
Turn around times went from days to months.
And without empty containers, the new product cannot be sent.
The empty to be containers were stuck at the customers, and full of things, not enough people to empty them.
Then the third Covid wave came.
Grin and bear it, nothing you can do about it.
The fact is that most of us buy tiny quantities of obscure parts, pressure from large customers like cell phones and car is much than from us hobby people.
Their values are in billions, we might buy a few thousand worth. No competition.
Arduino are available?
Try TSMC, they were making so many things on contract.
VIA may sell you micro PCs, as will Gigabyte.
Try TSMC, they were making so many things on contract.
VIA may sell you micro PCs, as will Gigabyte.
It's still the worst I've seen in many years - and it's been going on for a year now, with no sign of an end.
Meanwhile all the trade rags are full of growth numbers, and no mention of the crazy lead times for many parts. We use parts from broadcom, TI, qualcomm, microchip and many others. All with lead times on new orders of mid 2023 now. And existing orders are being de-commited all the time. I know of companies that have had to close shop because of this yet the industry has it's head in the sand. (which would be ok if they were turning that sand into silicon...).
It's not just semiconductors, some connectors are like hen's teeth, and steel prices have soared causing things like the small screws we use to triple in price, and have long lead times. It's crazy out there.
Meanwhile all the trade rags are full of growth numbers, and no mention of the crazy lead times for many parts. We use parts from broadcom, TI, qualcomm, microchip and many others. All with lead times on new orders of mid 2023 now. And existing orders are being de-commited all the time. I know of companies that have had to close shop because of this yet the industry has it's head in the sand. (which would be ok if they were turning that sand into silicon...).
It's not just semiconductors, some connectors are like hen's teeth, and steel prices have soared causing things like the small screws we use to triple in price, and have long lead times. It's crazy out there.
gpauk, what does this all do to the price of the products you are producing? I ask this because I see a tendency that people delay/postpone buying non essential stuff like consumer electronics. A higher price than before won't exactly help (I guess).
I suspect a lot of OEMs have gone from JIT to big stockpiles again. Back in the 90s if there was a sniff of a shortage people ordered 10x what they needed on the principle you got 10% of your allocation. It's better now but there will still be a bit of that.
It's impossible to explain all this without going into politics...and politics isn't allowed for everybody in this world...
It's the consequence of the just in time delivery system that many companies handle to reduce storage costs, a globalised economy and a few big crisises in the world (Covid, Ukrainia, ...) that disrupt the machine that supported that. The just in time delivery system does not take that in account, as there were nog big major crisises in the industrial world since 30 years anymore, and the actual generation of managers has no eperience with that kind of conditions and how to take precautions for it.
The price rises, but less than the cost increase, margins are down. Both us and our customers share the pain. These are commercial, not consumer products, fortunately.
Not necessarily. When I saw TDA2050 was dissappeai g, checked Mouser and they had still 1000 left.
Next day, they had 500.
I ordered 100 , and it bounced.
From normal to zero in less than 48 hours.
While I bet uA709 or even uA741 are still available.
2050 should be available from Taiwan and China.
Most of the production of older components is with secondary makers, as licensee or knock-off.
741 from ST should be available, at least in hobby quantities.
Prices?
If you ask, you can't afford it.
Material is ready, take it at today's price, of course regular customers get credit.
Tomorrow? New price, or no stock.
3/16" x 3/4" long hex head plated mild steel bolts up 50% in price from January to March.
Plastic materials, up nearly 100% in some cases in 6 months.
And of course your customer wants them at historical prices.
You must have the guts to tell the customer to look elsewhere, and the quote will be up 10% if he comes back after finding the situation. Or whatever based on the current prices.
And long term price commitments are of course impossible.
Today, your investment in stock counts, and the low inventory people are having to shut shop.
Of course, stocking too much may have issues if the part goes obsolete, or the design changes.
Most of the production of older components is with secondary makers, as licensee or knock-off.
741 from ST should be available, at least in hobby quantities.
Prices?
If you ask, you can't afford it.
Material is ready, take it at today's price, of course regular customers get credit.
Tomorrow? New price, or no stock.
3/16" x 3/4" long hex head plated mild steel bolts up 50% in price from January to March.
Plastic materials, up nearly 100% in some cases in 6 months.
And of course your customer wants them at historical prices.
You must have the guts to tell the customer to look elsewhere, and the quote will be up 10% if he comes back after finding the situation. Or whatever based on the current prices.
And long term price commitments are of course impossible.
Today, your investment in stock counts, and the low inventory people are having to shut shop.
Of course, stocking too much may have issues if the part goes obsolete, or the design changes.
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And have you seen what has happened in cars?
Here, some popular models are 10 months waiting, so the alternate slow selling models are being picked up, and used car prices are up.
The prices of some cars have gone up so fast that it seems you are in another dimension, turn around and Bang! Another price hike.
30% in some cases, and that without a model change, which is generally a time to increase prices.
Here, some popular models are 10 months waiting, so the alternate slow selling models are being picked up, and used car prices are up.
The prices of some cars have gone up so fast that it seems you are in another dimension, turn around and Bang! Another price hike.
30% in some cases, and that without a model change, which is generally a time to increase prices.
Lately, I buy directly from TI. Small quantities prices are sometimes half of any major distributor. Historically, they were about the same, or slightly higher.
I see that also with my company car, mine is now 3 years old and the lease expires after 4 years. And yesterday my boss contacted me to start choosing a new one because they need to order it at least 10 months in advance to have the delivery on time. Cars from the Volkswagen group (Porche, Audi, Volkswagen, Skoda and Seat) like we get in our company are very popular down here and the waiting row is long ...
I had 100 mosfets on backorder at Mouser (no commit date, and another product in the family was quoting a YEAR). When I saw stock on the $7-and-change Infineon version drop to less than 200 I grudgingly went ahead and ordered the 70 I needed the ‘flagship’ amp. The new board and chassis layout was already modified for SSR’s instead of the giant mechanical contactor types I originally planned. Each channel takes 8 of those FETs to replace a speaker relay the size of my fist which I just couldn’t get to FIT. And ordered two other less expensive types which were also dwindling in stock - and of course the most cost effective versions of those were gone already too. Waiting to buy parts that I had assumed would be available forever (that class of part anyway, part numbers seem to change every few months) turned out to be a $500 mistake. I could have ordered them at normal price two years ago, when I was doing my lifetime buys for parts that WERE going obsolete. And those parts didn’t go as fast when ON announced EOL as the mosfet supply did! My funding gets cut off entirely at the end of the year, and it’s doubtful that the original types are going to be available by then. And all the parts of any consequence MUST be on hand by then.
Those China TDA2050’s? Forget it. They put at 2030 copy in there. Run them at full power and POOF.
LM1875 too...
Probably same die from some, but UTC Taiwan is reputed, as are CRC.
I have seen at least 3 makes in 2030, and a fake ST marking.
Mosfets too are available, though the volumes you need will not interest them, I have seen consignments of 200 K pieces of 2030 imported into India.
Probably same die from some, but UTC Taiwan is reputed, as are CRC.
I have seen at least 3 makes in 2030, and a fake ST marking.
Mosfets too are available, though the volumes you need will not interest them, I have seen consignments of 200 K pieces of 2030 imported into India.