US Naval pilots "We see UFO everyday for at least a couple of years"

Jump to Latest
#423
Evenharmonics said:
Out of what?


I'll mention the word once again, speculate is another option missing from your reply, at least until that technology you mentioned is put into work.
Click to expand...

Academic papers and research are less speculative than fuzzy videos from night watchman or amateur video analyst.

Academia has the weight of evidence that says it’s highly improbable that we have visitations. If you want to call it speculation, I’m ok with that.

But what do you call it when believers pile improbability upon improbability to justify their alien visitation fixation? We’ve had FTL propulsion, fleets of starships, ‘they came to teach us’ crud, FTL communication, endless YouTube videos about scientists and the government hushing this stuff up, Area 51?
 
#425
So Bonny you admit to being an alien and try to convince others that UFOs are not by aliens! Highly suspicious! 😉

I did know a fellow who knew we were the only life in the universe, otherwise the Bible would have mentioned them.

I am of the school that with the universe being a bit on the large size, as rare as it is there could be life elsewhere.

Of course a better explanation for UFOs is they are time traveling human historians who don’t want to contaminate the time line!
 
#427
Bonsai said:
I already did that. And I even posted the intro to Sandberg’s paper, that in turn references many others. I asked if you had read it remember?
Click to expand...

Yes, I remember. Did I read and understand all of it, no. It is a peer reviewed type paper, not written for laypersons, in a scientific discipline (Astronomy/Geology) which is not mine. Did I attempt to skim through it, yes. Now, however, that you've referenced it twice, I will see if I can find some time to read and understand it's assumptions. Upon which, the analysis is undoubtedly based. I don't expect the science of the astronomy/geology fields are as mature as the science of, say, electro-dynamics. I can't readily think of any assumptions underpinning the science of electro-dynamics, for example. I will not deign to challenge the calculations of PhDs in an unfamiliar field. Their assumptions, however, are where I expect there are reasonable questions. And there certainly must be a some major assumptions in a paper purporting to accurately calculate that it's highly-likely that our planet is the ONLY one in this galaxy to have developed intelligent life. A galaxy with an recently estimated six billion Earth-like planets.
 
#430
#431
Bonsai said:
1. I am old enough to remember in 1969 they were talking about landing men on Mars within 10 yrs . . . or nuclear fusion, or a cure for cancer.
Click to expand...
Bonsai said:
Academic papers and research are less speculative than fuzzy videos from night watchman or amateur video analyst.

Academia has the weight of evidence that says it’s highly improbable that we have visitations. If you want to call it speculation, I’m ok with that.
Click to expand...
At some point in the future you will look back and also say, "They were talking about...", I suppose.

But what do you call it when believers pile improbability upon improbability to justify their alien visitation fixation? We’ve had FTL propulsion, fleets of starships, ‘they came to teach us’ crud, FTL communication, endless YouTube videos about scientists and the government hushing this stuff up, Area 51?
Click to expand...
How decisive you want to be is your prerogative. I responded your posts of mixed messages. It's speculative when words like if and probability are used. Then when "decidedly" comes up, that's a monkey wrench thrown in.

Bonsai said:
We will soon have the technology to be able to confidently determine the makeup of the atmospheres of small rocky planets orbiting distant stars in the habitable zone. If the Milky Way (and by implication the universe) is indeed full of aliens, we should quickly expect to pick up the telltale signature of oxygen on many of these exoplanets indicating the presence of large scale biological processes, as they would if they were observing us.

The paper asserts intelligent life is extremely rare through a very reasoned argument drawing on academic research over the past 40 yrs.

I’ve linked to research showing why advanced civilizations are probably not present around millions of stars in our Galaxy, perhaps you could show similar academic research that, with reasoned scientific argument, points in the exact opposite direction in support of your view?
Click to expand...
Bonsai said:
An academic paper positing that advanced civilizations are rare is hardly a definitive statement. It simply says this is the reasoning, the math, and here is the earth’s geological record and taken together they seem to indicate it’s rare. Now, if people think this is bunk, fair enough, but then it’s up to them to put an argument on the table in support of their contention. It’s how scientific debate works.


The reverse applies as well. But math does allow us to calculate the probability with reasonable odds.

To summarize, there are billions of planets potentially in the habitable zone of suitable stars, but the process of evolution from single cell organisms to advanced civilizations takes billions of years and a huge amount of chance luck reducing the emergence of such civilizations in all probability to 1 per galaxy. That is the current view of much of the astrobiology fraternity.
Click to expand...
Bonsai said:
No, I read papers by academics that consider this issue very, very carefully. I am not a scientist, but the argumentation they put forward is well considered and as I said before, its all very well saying there are billions of planets out there, but no one talks about the biological hurdles and once you factor that in, the balance in favour of a Milky Way (or any other galaxy) teeming with advanced civilizations looks decidedly unlikely.
Click to expand...
 
#432
arg_ said:
just put a zero in any of the Drake equation terms and magnitude of the others becomes irrelevant 🙁

I wouldn't want this to be the case though
Click to expand...

The Drake equation is shown in the attached image, and it's factors listed below for convienent reference.

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and

R∗ = the average rate of star formation in our galaxy
fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets
ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets
fl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some point
fi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)
fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space
L = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space

Yes, if any one factor in the equation were zero, then the equation itself is also equal to zero. But we know for certain that the equation is equal to, or greater than one. Current estimates allow for us to replace the first three or four factors with a single figure, six billion. Which is a recent upper estimate of how many Earth-like planets there are in the MilkyWay. The remaining three or four factors are, as best as I can gather, essentially, educated guesses. I'll refrain from calling them, arbitrary.

In addition, the Drake equation says nothing about how to factor whether more advanced civilizations wish to (think it prudent) be in immediate and open public contact with less advanced civilizations.
 

Attachments

  • image.jpeg
    image.jpeg
    49.2 KB · Views: 120
Last edited:
#434
afa said:
I wonder what sort of "walls" the Canadians and Mexicans have built. They seem to be working quite well at keeping the UFOs out (well, most of them)
Click to expand...
SIMPLE: they have not started and maintained a Cold War / arms race with Soviets - Chinese - Russians - N Koreans who are FULLY capable of nuking America (and UK) into an Ocean of molten glass, so they don´t NEED to believe in "Protecting Angels", the modern version being "Heaven creatures very worried about Humans using Nukes" 🙄


Notice that 80/90% of "explanations" about their presence end up boiling down to that.
The minuscule (by comparison) "sightings" anywhere else on Earth are just echoes.

Just-look-at-the-map-animation. 🙄

There´s tons all over the place, including many "respected UFO Experts", but as a free sample from serious sources:

Why Have There Been So Many UFO Sightings Near Nuclear Facilities? - HISTORY

UFOs and nukes. Extraordinary encounters at nuclear weapons s..|INIS
Abstract
[en] Everyone knows about the reported recovery of a crashed alien spaceship near Roswell, New Mexico in July 1947. However, most people are unaware that, at the time of the incident, Roswell Army Airfield was home to the world's only atomic bomber squadron, the 509th Bomb Group. Was this merely a coincidence? During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union built thousands of the far more destructive hydrogen bombs, some of them a thousand times as destructive as the first atomic bombs dropped on Japan. If the nuclear standoff between the superpowers had erupted into World War III, human civilization - and perhaps the very survival of our species - would have been at risk. Did this ominous state of affairs come to the attention of outside observers? Was there a connection between the atomic bomber squadron based at Roswell and the reported crash of a UFO nearby? Did those who pilot the UFOs monitor the superpowers' nuclear arms race during the dangerous Cold War era? Do they scrutinize American and Russian weapons sites even now? UFOs and Nukes provides the startling and sometimes shocking answers to these questions. Veteran researcher Robert Hastings has investigated nuclear weapons-related UFO incidents for more than three decades and has interviewed more than 120 ex-US Air Force personnel, from former Airmen to retired Colonels, who witnessed extraordinary UFO encounters at nuclear weapons sites.
Click to expand...

Apollo astronaut claims aliens prevented Cold War nuclear war
Edgar Mitchell, who was part of the Apollo 14 crew in 1971, said that we could thank aliens for preventing a nuclear war between America and Russia, the Daily Mirror reported.
Click to expand...

The Cold War and UFOs | The National Archives
The Cold War and UFOs
Click to expand...

Aliens and Cold War Paranoia Collide in '''Project Blue Book''' | Time
Aliens and Cold War Paranoia Collide in Project Blue Book
Click to expand...

https://www.8newsnow.com/news/i-team-new-film-claims-ufos-monitored-nuclear-weapons/
But what if these unknown aircraft showed an interest in our nuclear weapons?

A group of more than 150 military veterans, missile officers, and security personnel, including many who worked at the Nevada Test Site, say they’ve seen mystery intruders over nuclear facilities.

In the darkest days of the Cold War, atomic weapons were routinely exploded above ground at the Nevada Test Site, the most nuked placed on earth.

In 1955, 14 A-bombs were detonated as part of Operation Teapot, witnessed by thousands of military personnel in trenches, and by thousands of test site employees. But there were other observers as well.

“It was what we called flying saucers. They were pretty prevalent at the test site back then,” said a former test site photographer.

At least a dozen former test site employees have told similar stories about unknown aircraft showing up hours or days after an atomic blast.
Click to expand...

https://www.naa.gov.au/learn/learni...ns/ufo-sightings-weapons-testing-site-woomera
UFO sightings became common during the Cold War (1945–90) against a background of political and military tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States and its allies. The anxiety and paranoia generated by espionage, weapons and satellite tests found expression in Hollywood science fiction films depicting humanity under attack from hostile aliens determined to destroy the American way of life.
Click to expand...

https://www.amazon.com/UFOs-Nukes-Extraordinary-Encounters-Nuclear/dp/1544822197

https://www.wired.com/2010/09/tinfoil-tuesdays-ufos-neutered-nukes-air-force-officers-claim/
Seven elderly retired Air Force officers called a news conference at the National Press Club in Washington on Monday afternoon -- covered, improbably, by CNN -- to disclose that they witnessed the UFOs rendering U.S. nuclear missiles temporarily inoperable during the Cold War.

"Whoever are aboard these craft are sending a signal to both Washington and Moscow, among others, that we are playing with fire," announced longtime UFO researcher Robert Hastings, who convened the gathering. "The possession and threatened use of nuclear weapons potentially threatens the human race and the integrity of the planetary bargain."
Click to expand...

https://www.loc.gov/static/collecti...on-other-worlds/ufos-and-aliens-among-us.html
Carl Sagan says it all.

Among other things:
In the 1940s and 50s reports of "flying saucers" became an American cultural phenomena .... Fear of the possibilities for destruction in the Cold War-era proved fertile ground for terrestrial anxieties to manifest visions of flying saucers and visitors from other worlds .... Comic books and television illustrates how the possibility of extraterrestrial visitors reflected anxieties of that era. ..... UFOs are also part of American folk culture. Ideas of aliens and flying saucers are a part of the mythology of America. ..... Carl Sagan reviews the possibilities of alien visitors to Earth, and suggests that there is good reason to be skeptical of them ..... Alien visitors to earth provide a powerful means to express fear of others ..... In this hand written edit to a draft of his book Pale Blue Dot, Carl Sagan suggests that stories of alien abduction are primarily part of American culture. ..... Sagan offers a series of examples of how to explain away UFO sightings, noting some are psychological aberrations while others are hoaxes.
Click to expand...

and so on and on and on.
 
Last edited:
#436
arg_ said:
... I may be missing something but how do we know for certain that the equation is equal to or greater than one?
Click to expand...

Because, we count as one. :wave:

Something else just occurred to me. The Drake equation, with it's seven factors, including some that are necessarily presumptions, seems almost certain to either produce a result of zero, or some result more than one. The least likely product of all those factors would seem to be, one civilization. The odds of that result have to hugely lower than either zero, or some number more than one. There should either be NO civilizations in our galaxy, or MORE THAN ONE civilizations. For there to be only a single civilization just seems, by far, to be the least likely result of the equation, doesn't it?
 
Last edited:
#438
arg_ said:
well I have some doubts about fi (development of intelligent life). I may be missing something but how do we know for certain that the equation is equal to or greater than one?
Click to expand...

arg_ said:
ha ha, touché 🙂

but this doesn't preclude the possibility of uniqueness
Click to expand...

I agree, it does not preclude that. However, it does seem to argue for that probability to be very low. While also arguing that either our civilization simply should not exist, or there are more civilizations than just ours. Likely, many more, just from the implications of the seven factors of the equation.

The notion the the equation should just happen to equal one, seems the least likely result of all, in the extreme. Said another way, the fact that we are here argues that others should be here as well.
 
Last edited:
#439
Just because we exist, does not make the equation at least one. That's not what it says...

It does point out that, in all likelihood, it's vanishingly unlikely that we would meet any other intelligent life. Whatever "intelligence" means.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom