Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now

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bwoslo
Hope you do well. seems a lot of people will get a (mild?) case of it and be ok after a few weeks. Good to self isolate since you don't know if you are passing something deadly to others.

FWIW, Canada is doing some testing(never enough..). Initially a couple of confirmed cases were from people returning China. Then a lot from Iran. Then Italy. Last couple of weeks mostly from people returning from USA. I think it is pretty widespread already.
 
Cannot be overemphasized.

This is serious. Everyone can do their bit to stop the spread. In places where early action was not taken, it will have a huge burden on the health care system, things will break, and people will/have died.

The whole worls economy is going to take a big hit.

DO your part. Stay away from other people. Avoid travel.

There is panic, but you have to keep your head.

dave

PS: i ahve not read many posts in this thread, but anyone who does not take it seriously is part of the problem.

+ 100
 
Everyone, stay safe, stay home. My sister-in-law lives in Milano, a very well off place with first rate health care. The situation is dire. Dozens of pages in the newspapers just for death notices. Funerals just with a priest and the funeral home staff. No good-byes. Increasingly young people affected, with fatal outcome or with permanently diminished lung capacity. It is the sheer numbers that turn this into desaster. Health care systems nowhere are ready for this.

This is not the flu. Stay safe, stay home, RADICALLY minimise any social interaction, any chance for transmission. Build nice things at home, start great new threads, Let‘s keep our spirits up.
 
Dutch government decided on a mixed strategy. On the one hand, trying to blunt the peak so that the medical services aren't overwhelmed, but also give the virus time to spread through the population at a slower pace to build up herd immunity. Slowing it down by avoiding large gatherings of people, but not completely shutting society down.

With my limited understanding of the issues, it sounded like a good strategy. The other strategies, either letting it roam unchecked to quickly build up herd immunity at the expense of more deaths, or trying to clamp down in force to try to maximally suppress it, to me seem less promising. Especially the last one which is doubtful whether it will work.

Jan

Precisely along these lines, the following UK epidemiological modelling and prediction paper is worth a read: http://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Note this sentence in the first paragraph: "Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks."

Derek
 
They conclude that supression would be more effective in limiting care surge demands and deaths, than migitation. But supression basically shuts down society, while migitation is less stringent.

At any rate, it is clear this will not be over in a few months. We'd be lucky if we get back to normal before end of the year.
Better to stock up on resistors and solder ;-)

Jan
 
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The thing that has suprised me most is how quickly China got this under control apart from the early silencing of the whistleblower. RIP. I'm absolutely gobsmacked by their response. And South Korea as well by the way...they are quickly sliding down the list of top countries with confirmed infections.
 

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Outsourcing production to far away contries to increase profits should stop once and for all times
This is sliding off topic. Until stopped I'll continue. Exporting production has exported wealth around the world generally speaking. Sure there are stories of exploitation. And I'm sure it has hurt sustainability. But the amount of people that have been lifted out of extreme poverty the past 40 years has been nothing short of miraculous. Something you won't hear on the news or from aid organizations.
Global Extreme Poverty - Our World in Data
 

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They are IQ 86 journalists ! So 85 IQ to learn to read, with the one point IQ left left the guy wrote this paper ! It's the summit of the foolness !
Leaving "weaponizing" and speculation aside, it is true that such a Lab exists, and it is true that World´s most respected Bat Virus researcher works there, and has been for a long time.
This Peer Reviewed paper was published in 2012!!!!!!
Just the *title* makes me reach gloves and masks!!!!

https://www.microbiologyresearch.org/content/journal/jgv/10.1099/vir.0.033589-0

Journal of General Virology Volume 93, Issue 2
Research Article Free
Bat severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronavirus ORF3b homologues display different interferon antagonist activities Free

Peng Zhou1, Hongxia Li1, Hanzhong Wang1, Lin-Fa Wang2, Zhengli Shi1
View Affiliations
First Published: 01 February 2012

Dr Peng Zhou has been studying nothing but, has researched (together with local Universities) Bats in Australia and Singapore, etc.

This is what Research Gate finds (It´s an index of published Scientific Papers):
Peng Zhou's research works | Wuhan Institute Of Virology, Wuhan and other places
Peng Zhou's research while affiliated with Wuhan Institute Of Virology and other places

Cut and paste a few Paper titles:

Publications (15)
* Genetic Evidence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-Cov) and Widespread Seroprevalence among Camels in Kenya

* Fatal swine acute diarrhoea syndrome caused by an HKU2-related coronavirus of bat origin

* Dampened STING-Dependent Interferon Activation in Bats

* Correction: IFNAR2-dependent gene expression profile induced by IFN-α in Pteropus alecto bat cells and impact of IFNAR2 knockout on virus infection

and so on and on and on.

My point? there IS a Wuhan Virology Lab, they DID (and probably still do) invest a lot of resources studying Bats, Coronavirus in general and similar dangerous stuff.
Not speculating anything beyond the established facts, future History will tell.
 
Yep, see a tv where young americans guys in Florida said at tv thety don't care and still drinking at festa..

Amazed that national guards all over usa are not in the streets yet for calming down the fools. In CE there are still stupid people not listening the orders about PHYSICAL distanciation...despite police charge them with a bill... in the very popular area where fatality is driving more than science and education in tje head of people, they are still grupped ad gravepines...

@jmf, i just wanted pointed out the goal of this paper which seemed conspiracy at a fast reading...

I would like to read more interesting papers, like "what are doing UNO with executives?"
 
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I brought up the idea of cultural differences in the other earlier thread, and got flamed for it.

BTW, some media reports suggest that subtle differences like these probably aren't the reason. Different countries have different demographics, and on TOP of that different national outbreaks have different demographic hot spots, which is certainly a more pronounced effect than how people culturally react.
 
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