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It's not about incomes, I think it's more about leaders trying to cover their own R-sez, if they under-react they lose, if they over-react they lose.
It is important to keep in mind that culture has a huge effect on the success of lockdowns, social distancing and hygiene protocols. In countries with more "collective" cultures (and I do not mean in the fiscal sense, but in the inter-personal sense) there is an inherent sense of personal responsibility and duty to conform to the protocols defined by authority. In these cultures, prescribed control measures can be very successful - as we have seen in Singapore (and to a slightly lesser extent in Hong Kong and Taiwan).
We all witnessed this cultural phenomenon during the aftermath of the tsunami in Japan, for example. Everyone dutifully obeying protocols and helping each other - and happy to do so. It appears Japan is doing a fine job once again dealing with a potential disaster. This mode of being stands in stark contrast to the aftermath of natural disasters in other parts of the world. I don't need to point fingers, do I?
So, while scientists and governments may be looking at the relative success of these mitigation protocols in Singapore (et. al.) - are they accounting for the fact that fundamental cultural differences are what really matters in these scenarios? I hope so.
We all witnessed this cultural phenomenon during the aftermath of the tsunami in Japan, for example. Everyone dutifully obeying protocols and helping each other - and happy to do so. It appears Japan is doing a fine job once again dealing with a potential disaster. This mode of being stands in stark contrast to the aftermath of natural disasters in other parts of the world. I don't need to point fingers, do I?
So, while scientists and governments may be looking at the relative success of these mitigation protocols in Singapore (et. al.) - are they accounting for the fact that fundamental cultural differences are what really matters in these scenarios? I hope so.
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Maybe not only lockdown of people and shutdown the economy but the main cause of spreading this thing back and forth the globe - air traffic....
Here, still no restrictions even from hotspots around the world like Iran.... except for "Passenger Locator Cards" on checkout.
Same in UK - nuts. But of course they are trying to balance the global ec ob9my going into free fall with possibly mass infections and health systems that cannot cope.
Between the devil and the deep blue sea!
Get official text message from Gouvernement on the phone.
We stay at home for 15 days at first step,
Walk on the streets is permited only for food and medical shopping.
All citizens need write on the paper declaration with day date and destination for single mouvement.
100 000 police forces do veryfication controls.
Folks who do not respect must pay ~ 35 € today and few days after be ~ 138 €
We stay at home for 15 days at first step,
Walk on the streets is permited only for food and medical shopping.
All citizens need write on the paper declaration with day date and destination for single mouvement.
100 000 police forces do veryfication controls.
Folks who do not respect must pay ~ 35 € today and few days after be ~ 138 €
It seems that the French authorities are wise enough to know that their citizens require the threat of penalties in order for them to conform.
My wife just got word that her place of employment (local Hudson's Bay store) will be shut down for 2 weeks, and she will be paid. "Who knows" what will happen after that.
I have already told my family that we might as well start getting used to a different way of life. No unnecessary purchases. We will not be booking any travel this summer. Just spend time together at home (or in the wild) and live a simple life. Maybe start some new hobbies that we can do together at home. Sitting around watching Netflix is going to get old very quickly. Hunting, foraging, gardening will start back up in a few weeks. Maybe I will finally get around to teaching them how to play cribbage.
We all need to make the most of this, IMO. Perhaps there is some good that can come out of it, not the least of which could be better/stronger relationships with our loved ones.
I have already told my family that we might as well start getting used to a different way of life. No unnecessary purchases. We will not be booking any travel this summer. Just spend time together at home (or in the wild) and live a simple life. Maybe start some new hobbies that we can do together at home. Sitting around watching Netflix is going to get old very quickly. Hunting, foraging, gardening will start back up in a few weeks. Maybe I will finally get around to teaching them how to play cribbage.
We all need to make the most of this, IMO. Perhaps there is some good that can come out of it, not the least of which could be better/stronger relationships with our loved ones.
I have been a wildlife consultant and bat specialist for 29 years, but am not trained in epidemiology or public health. As a result, I rely on best available research to form my conclusions, which I am always willing and ready to adapt or change with new confirmed data. I am very experienced and knowledgeable in my field, but am completely aware that there are others vastly more knowledgeable in theirs, and do not understand the antagonism so many people have with those who are educated in their field. People who actually know a lot about a topic are worth listening to, which is why I rely on real health care professionals, rather than dismiss this pandemic as simply hysteria of the masses, or the sole fault of the press.
It is simplistic (and irresponsible in my view) to trot out the comment that Spanish flu was deadlier. I've heard this from several people I've recently spoken to (or Hong Kong flu, or...). Many here have pointed out the folly in such a statement. We lack definitive data at this time for the rate of transmission of this disease (it appears the mode is better understood than initially), and actual mortality rates, because we are still early in this pandemic. In my understanding, "deadliness" of a disease is the result of mode of transmission, rate of transmission, rate of infection, severity of infection, and mortality rate. Other factors are present, such as age differentials to these other factors.
Given what people around the world are going through now, many of us won't be focused on the originating source, but it is notable to me in my own work that as the human population has increased and has moved deeper into wildlife habitats previously unoccupied, those new interactions do result in new disease exposures and other impacts negative to both humans and wildlife. We need to better understand these impacts and interactions to better prevent human endemic and pandemic infections, but I truly hope we do not simply destroy bats or other wildlife species in fear.
The originating taxa for COVID-19 is actually not conclusively understood. Genetic studies of bat pathogens suggest no direct transmission from bats to humans, but possibly bats to other wildlife, possibly pangolins which are consumed by many in the region, and/or domesticated food animals (e.g. somewhat similar SARS occurred in swine). There are two current references below to add to the Scientific American link provided by WBS.
We citizens of the world are all in for tough times ahead, and we do not yet have enough data to make rash, insensitive and uninformed statements that this new, evolving pandemic is somehow less deadly than a flu pandemic 100 years ago, or that the current fear and responses are simply the result of the media. It's important not to conflate human response to a real event and the event itself. The event occurs, with or without the response, although the human response can ameliorate or exacerbate the impacts of the event. Also, even if this kills 1/2 the people compared to Spanish flu, that's still tens of millions.
DPH stated earlier that a virus doesn't care about human behavior, which is true in an anthropomorphic sense, but to apply evolutionary biology terms to this thought; a virus is simply an organism that is programmed to survive and thrive. The actions we take and the decisions we make, as individuals, communities, and nations, will have the greatest impact on whether the virus thrives because the host refuses to take the problem seriously, or is suppressed or eliminated.
My sincerest best regards to you all.
Where did the new coronavirus come from? Past outbreaks provide hints
Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus
It is simplistic (and irresponsible in my view) to trot out the comment that Spanish flu was deadlier. I've heard this from several people I've recently spoken to (or Hong Kong flu, or...). Many here have pointed out the folly in such a statement. We lack definitive data at this time for the rate of transmission of this disease (it appears the mode is better understood than initially), and actual mortality rates, because we are still early in this pandemic. In my understanding, "deadliness" of a disease is the result of mode of transmission, rate of transmission, rate of infection, severity of infection, and mortality rate. Other factors are present, such as age differentials to these other factors.
Given what people around the world are going through now, many of us won't be focused on the originating source, but it is notable to me in my own work that as the human population has increased and has moved deeper into wildlife habitats previously unoccupied, those new interactions do result in new disease exposures and other impacts negative to both humans and wildlife. We need to better understand these impacts and interactions to better prevent human endemic and pandemic infections, but I truly hope we do not simply destroy bats or other wildlife species in fear.
The originating taxa for COVID-19 is actually not conclusively understood. Genetic studies of bat pathogens suggest no direct transmission from bats to humans, but possibly bats to other wildlife, possibly pangolins which are consumed by many in the region, and/or domesticated food animals (e.g. somewhat similar SARS occurred in swine). There are two current references below to add to the Scientific American link provided by WBS.
We citizens of the world are all in for tough times ahead, and we do not yet have enough data to make rash, insensitive and uninformed statements that this new, evolving pandemic is somehow less deadly than a flu pandemic 100 years ago, or that the current fear and responses are simply the result of the media. It's important not to conflate human response to a real event and the event itself. The event occurs, with or without the response, although the human response can ameliorate or exacerbate the impacts of the event. Also, even if this kills 1/2 the people compared to Spanish flu, that's still tens of millions.
DPH stated earlier that a virus doesn't care about human behavior, which is true in an anthropomorphic sense, but to apply evolutionary biology terms to this thought; a virus is simply an organism that is programmed to survive and thrive. The actions we take and the decisions we make, as individuals, communities, and nations, will have the greatest impact on whether the virus thrives because the host refuses to take the problem seriously, or is suppressed or eliminated.
My sincerest best regards to you all.
Where did the new coronavirus come from? Past outbreaks provide hints
Mystery deepens over animal source of coronavirus
Bad news from France, Soundhappy. I'm sorry.
But it seems to me that Europeans are starting to train us well.
Excuse me for my posts, please.
We survived a stupid war in my country and this virus seems like a big joke to us.
But it seems to me that Europeans are starting to train us well.
Excuse me for my posts, please.
We survived a stupid war in my country and this virus seems like a big joke to us.
You do a better job of making my point than I do, thanks for that. 🙂
I meant that, in a mechanistic sense, the virus interacts with a human being in a certain manner, and it's up to us to decide, as best we can, how much we give it opportunities to find new hosts/evolve/etc. Which you describe with more clarity than I did!
Richard Ellis says :
Just to keep you informed, here in Argentina, sixty-five confirmed, as we now know, the current one is several times the "official" one.
Solo para mantenerlos informados, aquí en Argentina, sesenta y cinco confirmados, como ahora sabemos, el actual es varias veces el "oficial".
I do not share that information is being hidden here.
And I give an example to support my belief.
There was an episode that shows us Argentines as we are, (it is not an exclusivity either
local, only that our laziness as a people is selfish and stupid, - a product of "save whoever can" - on the other hand that of "evolved" countries is the product of many years of enjoying high "standart" of life, but lacks end, - as we see in so many evasive and childish comments here).
But in something we are equal to the rest of the world, because a great majority of human beings have lost several decades ago the most sublime feelings that all people should have:
Compassion and solidarity with others.
The Argentine government announced today that all long-distance travel, whether land or air, is suspended, except in specific cases of necessity and urgency (and yes, as the Decrees of Necessity and Urgency, the DNU, can be used to benefit social castes temporarily. in power or for the benefit of the majority)
The reason ?
Last weekend, thousands of families from Bahía Blanca went out with their cars to Monte Hermoso to enjoy its beautiful coasts. (And incidentally, it is the only place in the world where you can see the sun over the ocean twice on the same day, at sunrise on the East, and at sunset on the West, I could personally confirm it)
And the president's reaction was (as I had already been warning, but, the letter with blood enters, right?) Totally appropriate in my opinion.
No comparto que se esté ocultando información aquí.
Y doy un ejemplo para apoyar mi creencia.
Hubo un episodio que nos muestra a los argentinos tal como somos, ( tampoco es una exclusividad
local, sólo que nuestra desidia como pueblo es egoista y estúpida, - producto del " salvese quien pueda " - en cambio la de los países " evolucionados" es el producto de muchos años de disfrutar de altos "standart" de vida, pero desidia al fin, - como vemos en tantos comentarios evasivos e infantiles aquí ).
Pero en algo estamos igualados al resto del mundo, porque una gran mayoría de los seres humanos hemos perdido hace ya varias décadas los sentimientos más sublimes que deberían tener todas las personas:
La compasión y la solidaridad con el prójimo.
El gobierno argentino anunció hoy que se suspenden todos los viajes de larga distancia, sean terrestres o aéreos , salvo caso específicos de necesidad y urgencia ( y sí, como los Decretos de Necesidad y Urgencia, los DNU , pueden usarse en beneficio de castas sociales temporariamente en el poder o en beneficio de las mayorías )
El motivo ?
El fin de semana pasada miles de familias de Bahía Blanca salieron con sus autos rumbo a Monte Hermoso a disfrutar de sus hermosas costas. ( Y dicho sea de paso, es el único lugar en el mundo donde se puede ver el sol sobre el oceáno en dos oportunidades en el mismo día, al amanecer sobre el Este, y al atardecer sobre el Oeste , yo lo pude confirmar personalmente)
Y la reacción del presidente fué (como ya lo venía advirtiendo, pero, la letra con sangre entra , no ? ) totalmente apropiada a mi entender.
Coronavirus en Argentina: dos kilometros de cola para ingresar a Monte Hermoso en plan turistico - LA NACION
Suspenden viajes en micros, trenes y aviones desde el viernes hasta el miercoles 25 | Filo News
Just to keep you informed, here in Argentina, sixty-five confirmed, as we now know, the current one is several times the "official" one.
Solo para mantenerlos informados, aquí en Argentina, sesenta y cinco confirmados, como ahora sabemos, el actual es varias veces el "oficial".
I do not share that information is being hidden here.
And I give an example to support my belief.
There was an episode that shows us Argentines as we are, (it is not an exclusivity either
local, only that our laziness as a people is selfish and stupid, - a product of "save whoever can" - on the other hand that of "evolved" countries is the product of many years of enjoying high "standart" of life, but lacks end, - as we see in so many evasive and childish comments here).
But in something we are equal to the rest of the world, because a great majority of human beings have lost several decades ago the most sublime feelings that all people should have:
Compassion and solidarity with others.
The Argentine government announced today that all long-distance travel, whether land or air, is suspended, except in specific cases of necessity and urgency (and yes, as the Decrees of Necessity and Urgency, the DNU, can be used to benefit social castes temporarily. in power or for the benefit of the majority)
The reason ?
Last weekend, thousands of families from Bahía Blanca went out with their cars to Monte Hermoso to enjoy its beautiful coasts. (And incidentally, it is the only place in the world where you can see the sun over the ocean twice on the same day, at sunrise on the East, and at sunset on the West, I could personally confirm it)
And the president's reaction was (as I had already been warning, but, the letter with blood enters, right?) Totally appropriate in my opinion.
No comparto que se esté ocultando información aquí.
Y doy un ejemplo para apoyar mi creencia.
Hubo un episodio que nos muestra a los argentinos tal como somos, ( tampoco es una exclusividad
local, sólo que nuestra desidia como pueblo es egoista y estúpida, - producto del " salvese quien pueda " - en cambio la de los países " evolucionados" es el producto de muchos años de disfrutar de altos "standart" de vida, pero desidia al fin, - como vemos en tantos comentarios evasivos e infantiles aquí ).
Pero en algo estamos igualados al resto del mundo, porque una gran mayoría de los seres humanos hemos perdido hace ya varias décadas los sentimientos más sublimes que deberían tener todas las personas:
La compasión y la solidaridad con el prójimo.
El gobierno argentino anunció hoy que se suspenden todos los viajes de larga distancia, sean terrestres o aéreos , salvo caso específicos de necesidad y urgencia ( y sí, como los Decretos de Necesidad y Urgencia, los DNU , pueden usarse en beneficio de castas sociales temporariamente en el poder o en beneficio de las mayorías )
El motivo ?
El fin de semana pasada miles de familias de Bahía Blanca salieron con sus autos rumbo a Monte Hermoso a disfrutar de sus hermosas costas. ( Y dicho sea de paso, es el único lugar en el mundo donde se puede ver el sol sobre el oceáno en dos oportunidades en el mismo día, al amanecer sobre el Este, y al atardecer sobre el Oeste , yo lo pude confirmar personalmente)
Y la reacción del presidente fué (como ya lo venía advirtiendo, pero, la letra con sangre entra , no ? ) totalmente apropiada a mi entender.
Coronavirus en Argentina: dos kilometros de cola para ingresar a Monte Hermoso en plan turistico - LA NACION
Suspenden viajes en micros, trenes y aviones desde el viernes hasta el miercoles 25 | Filo News
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When I was a kid we played in the back garden in the dirt.
This exposed us to all sorts of bacteria and viruses.
However, this helped build up a good immune system.
Today a lot of kids are brought up in almost sterile environments and a lot end up with all sorts of allergies.
A couple of hundred years ago people just had to weather plagues etc and the strong survived while the weak died.
I have felt ill for a week or so now with sore throat, a bit chesty, a fever and generally feeling not well. Hopefully, when its all over it will be another bug I am immune to.
Avoiding a virus just means next time it comes back you will get it badly.
^ There are wide-range reasons we do not want to follow that idea for COVID-19 or other extremely dangerous disease, Nigel. A robust and diverse immune system is a great thing and we should do more to keep kids playing in the world. On the other hand we do not expose folks to smallpox/ebola for really good reasons.
Your last statement is not true at all. It can be a one time knockout punch. Game over.
Your last statement is not true at all. It can be a one time knockout punch. Game over.
Cannot be overemphasized.
This is serious. Everyone can do their bit to stop the spread. In places where early action was not taken, it will have a huge burden on the health care system, things will break, and people will/have died.
The whole worls economy is going to take a big hit.
DO your part. Stay away from other people. Avoid travel.
There is panic, but you have to keep your head.
dave
PS: i ahve not read many posts in this thread, but anyone who does not take it seriously is part of the problem.
In 2020 French society have complicated life , even without virus 😉 Best regards
Not the same "game" and is just a beginning 🙂 Take care
This is serious
I am encouraged to see a large number of smart people on this thread taking this situation seriously. Good for all of us.
Living in Toronto,Canada we are now just starting the rapid growth in cases.
I became concerned 6 weeks ago forewarned by the outbreak across Asia. My retired daily routine included an early trip to the gym and a mid day trip to the markets for fresh food to cook. I figured I'd one day look back and conclude I got the virus from touching barbells and the treadmill. So I washed my hands. Then I started listening to all the people chanting the right wing news spin that it was just a common cold, a hoax, or a conspiracy theory about US democrats trying to take down Trump. It was clear these people would be dangerous until it was too late. I added wearing gloves and stocked up on basic essentials (food, drugs, latex gloves, masks, disinfectant etc). Then about a month ago I bought some equipment and moved my workout to the house. Also started wearing latex gloves to the market and washing well as soon as I got home. So far so good.
So, FWIW here is what I am doing to avoid bringing it home where my wife is immune compromised. I assume that everything outside the house including my car is infected. I wear latex gloves anytime I go out in public. Only go to the market when I need to. I shop at the 24 hour store and go at 5.30 or 6am when no one is around.
Coming home I first ditch the gloves before I even open the door. Carry in the groceries. Wash well. I wear one set of cloths for outside and a different set for inside. There is a bathroom just inside the garage, so its easy. Dump the gloves, wash, change the sweat suit. Whole thing takes a couple of minutes. I now assume that the packages that were on the shelf are infected so I actually place them aside for a few days to let the virus die. I keep a rotating supply so I can take that extra step. I frequently disinfect all the surfaces in that entry area of my house (door knob, light switch, bathroom sink and counter) with a little bleach in water. Takes a couple of minutes.
My wife and I cancelled any non urgent visits to dentist, doctor, hospital etc.
All entertainment is in the home. We are cooking great food and enjoying online entertainment. Did I mention I keep a well stocked wine cellar?
I keep in touch with my neighbors and we are all a support group who can help out if someone needs something. Guy across the street is a noteworthy head of medical research. He is now working from home whenever possible.
All of this I do from an abundance of caution. I know it sounds a bit extreme.
I hope sharing this gives just one idea to someone who will stay safe.
BTW I got an email from my gym today saying they have shut down until further notice and my membership is frozen until this thing passes.🙂
I am encouraged to see a large number of smart people on this thread taking this situation seriously. Good for all of us.
Living in Toronto,Canada we are now just starting the rapid growth in cases.
I became concerned 6 weeks ago forewarned by the outbreak across Asia. My retired daily routine included an early trip to the gym and a mid day trip to the markets for fresh food to cook. I figured I'd one day look back and conclude I got the virus from touching barbells and the treadmill. So I washed my hands. Then I started listening to all the people chanting the right wing news spin that it was just a common cold, a hoax, or a conspiracy theory about US democrats trying to take down Trump. It was clear these people would be dangerous until it was too late. I added wearing gloves and stocked up on basic essentials (food, drugs, latex gloves, masks, disinfectant etc). Then about a month ago I bought some equipment and moved my workout to the house. Also started wearing latex gloves to the market and washing well as soon as I got home. So far so good.
So, FWIW here is what I am doing to avoid bringing it home where my wife is immune compromised. I assume that everything outside the house including my car is infected. I wear latex gloves anytime I go out in public. Only go to the market when I need to. I shop at the 24 hour store and go at 5.30 or 6am when no one is around.
Coming home I first ditch the gloves before I even open the door. Carry in the groceries. Wash well. I wear one set of cloths for outside and a different set for inside. There is a bathroom just inside the garage, so its easy. Dump the gloves, wash, change the sweat suit. Whole thing takes a couple of minutes. I now assume that the packages that were on the shelf are infected so I actually place them aside for a few days to let the virus die. I keep a rotating supply so I can take that extra step. I frequently disinfect all the surfaces in that entry area of my house (door knob, light switch, bathroom sink and counter) with a little bleach in water. Takes a couple of minutes.
My wife and I cancelled any non urgent visits to dentist, doctor, hospital etc.
All entertainment is in the home. We are cooking great food and enjoying online entertainment. Did I mention I keep a well stocked wine cellar?
I keep in touch with my neighbors and we are all a support group who can help out if someone needs something. Guy across the street is a noteworthy head of medical research. He is now working from home whenever possible.
All of this I do from an abundance of caution. I know it sounds a bit extreme.
I hope sharing this gives just one idea to someone who will stay safe.
BTW I got an email from my gym today saying they have shut down until further notice and my membership is frozen until this thing passes.🙂
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This seems to make sense, until you introduce more virulent organisms not normally associated with a human population to which no immunity has built up. Over time, it may increase community or population resistance, but the cost of life is high until/unless that occurs.
I played in the dirt, mud, dust, trees, with insects, worms, animals and all sorts of goo, from childhood to today. But I still had allergies as a kid, even today. Those exposures do not always confer immunity, despite the apparent "common sense" logic we often want to apply to understand complex systems.
Play in the dirt and contract histoplasmosis, not a rare fungus at all in some areas, and the rate of contraction is 3.4 per 100,000 people by age 65 or more, but the mortality rate is 8% for adults, 5% for children. (Histoplasmosis Statistics | Types of Diseases | Histoplasmosis | Fungal Disease | CDC). Low contraction rate, high mortality rate. COVID-19 has a high contraction rate, and mortality rate is not yet known.
Introduce new diseases to which we have no individual or population immunity, and which have high infectivity and mortality, and that's just not the same as those organisms that our bodies have managed to fight off. DPH gave a great example of Ebola. Do you think you stand a good chance of fighting that off and becoming immune?
Past experiences do not define or constrain future events. This is called a novel coronavirus for a reason - it's new, and unknown.
I think it might be worth noting that the (2?) people in this thread from China have both said something to the effect of "Brace yourselves". This is in line with what pretty much everyone else I know from China has said, which is that this is every bit as bad as the media is making it out to be.
What we're feeling now in Europe and North America is just the very tip of the iceberg.
What we're feeling now in Europe and North America is just the very tip of the iceberg.
@wlowes -
Your plan sounds good to me! I have a similar routine for mail and packages that are delivered, and when I absolutely must go to the store. 🙂
I hope you and your wife stay healthy!
Your plan sounds good to me! I have a similar routine for mail and packages that are delivered, and when I absolutely must go to the store. 🙂
I hope you and your wife stay healthy!
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