Jeez I have the same thing. No fever, just coughing, sniffling etc., for 2+ weeks now. 😡...Oh, did I mention I still have the stupid head cold after 14 days?
What are good DIY prophylactic measures? What are people wearing when you need to go out, say, for weekly groceries?
I went grocery shopping and wore a balaclava with the drawstrings pulled tight so only my eyes were exposed. Then an ordinary pair of safety glasses. All was to avoid accidentally touching my face. It was hot, steamy and difficult compared with no "protection".
Most others at the store had nothing, save a few I noticed with exam gloves and / or a mouth-mask. I knew I looked pretty weird - hopefully such becomes the new normal for a while. What's yours?
I went grocery shopping and wore a balaclava with the drawstrings pulled tight so only my eyes were exposed. Then an ordinary pair of safety glasses. All was to avoid accidentally touching my face. It was hot, steamy and difficult compared with no "protection".
Most others at the store had nothing, save a few I noticed with exam gloves and / or a mouth-mask. I knew I looked pretty weird - hopefully such becomes the new normal for a while. What's yours?
All this hype over that virus..... mass insanity, fed by the media.
It's almost funny.
I'm not letting it nut my brain, nor let those crazies around me.
It's almost funny.
I'm not letting it nut my brain, nor let those crazies around me.
Yeah because China crippled their economy for fun, and Italy is having to choose who lives and who dies because it's a media conspiracy.
Get a clue.
Just look at the numbers, it is not encouraging.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 182,723 Cases and 7,174 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
I will take no pleasure in being right on this matter. I wish it was a media hoax.
First, I never inferred that it was a media hoax.
But the media is creating havoc beyond what it should - including that toilet paper business.
Secondly, other virus mass infections have killed more than this current one.
Wasn't that 1914ish outbreak far more damaging?
But this current outbreak is being pushed to heights to make people crazy.
And that "get a clue"?
Really?
The governments of first world nations are taking unprecedented measures to try and blunt the effects of this novel virus. Locally, it's tended to kill the elderly in spot situations, and I'm 70 with diabetes and early heart disease. I'm not frail, but I may be vulnerable.
I decided last week to start taking this seriously, because we don't know how this is going to play out. Feels very 9/11 ish.
I decided last week to start taking this seriously, because we don't know how this is going to play out. Feels very 9/11 ish.
So, ummm, no one wants to DIY any protective measures beyond that which the CDC has issued?
I understand the idea behind facemask usage being more of a problem due to tendency to "fiddle" with it, bringing even more chance of hand contact than without -
Heck, I'd buy and wear a full face motorcycle helmet - if that's what it takes to prevent inadvertent eye, nose and mouth contact with contaminated hands. Who cares what you look like...when up against this virus.
I understand the idea behind facemask usage being more of a problem due to tendency to "fiddle" with it, bringing even more chance of hand contact than without -
Heck, I'd buy and wear a full face motorcycle helmet - if that's what it takes to prevent inadvertent eye, nose and mouth contact with contaminated hands. Who cares what you look like...when up against this virus.
Sure... just a bunch of crazy people...
A local theater recently canceled 3 weeks of Wicked. Canceling 3 weeks of a broadway show is not something you do unless you have no other choice.
That's not cheap.
I tend to listen when professors of medicine get really worried, because they certainly know a hell of a lot more about this kind of thing than I do.
I trust the math, I've done a few back-of-the-envelope calculations, and if there is anything we can do to stop the deaths of large numbers of people, I think that's a good thing.
Answer this when it is over, not now.
Do you really think that there is no reason why your president is trying to make the in-research medicine exclusive to your country first ? For gods sake there are people who care more about humanity than money.
It's best to be informed and make intelligent decisions and understand why the recommendations made are what they are rather than automatically taking a contrarian opinion. It doesn't serve you nor the people near you.
Spanish flu - Wikipedia
We just looked up the stats on the Spanish Flu (H1N1, very similar biology to 2009's breakout) -- estimates put it between 15-50 million deaths and ~500 million infected, which at the time was ~27% of the world population (just a bit over 2 billion).
Our complementary care is better now than it was in 1918-1920 (WWI), which would have alleviated a large number of deaths. So we have a lot more people on the planet with way more mobility than 1918-1920 (meaning far far more interconnections and routes to infection), and early data pointing to a nastier virus. I don't know about you, but I do NOT want to repeat that and any reference that alludes to "see how bad it was that time!" to minimize this threat shows an inordinate level of ignorance or inability to see past one's nose. We have ~ 4x as many people on the planet now, and the very thought of having 60-200 million people die in a year (above and beyond normal rates) augments an argument to react strongly and quickly. Fortuitously enough, much of the data pointing towards social distancing is the result of epidemiological studies of different communities responding differently to the Spanish Flu: social distancing worked and well.
If we take today's numbers on COVID-19, it's more infectious, but less deadly than the Spanish Flu. Don't lull yourself into thinking this is the common cold in severity. Numbers being thrown around talk about 50-70% of the global population being infected by end of year. Nominal death rate right now is sitting around 1% of known cases, and in places that have either less medical infrastructure OR have been overrun (Italy most poignantly, which is a higher rated medical infrastructure than ours in the US), the death rate is higher. The disease's course for severe cases necessitates hospital intervention for 2 weeks, more or less, so our medical infrastructure (GLOBALLY) is unprepared for much more than a trickle of patients needing 2 weeks of intensive care, much less an onrush. The faucet will/has filled the sink faster than the drain can empty it.
It's totally wrong to look at human tendencies to panic and go into some sort of herd mentality (he or she took a roll of TP so I need to as well snowballing into crazy hoarding) as a proxy for the seriousness of the disease. Whilst sentience of a virus is questionable at best, COVID-19's biology DOES NOT CARE ABOUT HUMAN BEHAVIOR. Human behavior, and that comes down to each individual can modulate COVID-19's ability to do what it's built to do.
Choice is yours -- how big of a liability do you really want to be to yourself and the people around you?
Nice post DPH. The UK was foolishly toying with ‘herd immunity’ up until yesterday. Our PM went on TV last night to announce measures similar to those being rolled out in the US and the rest of the EU - ie social distancing, avoid public places etc.
I get higher mortality rates than you quote - 157k infected globally, 77k falling ill, 6.5k deaths so about 8% of those falling ill die, or about 4% of those who get infected die.
I get higher mortality rates than you quote - 157k infected globally, 77k falling ill, 6.5k deaths so about 8% of those falling ill die, or about 4% of those who get infected die.
Dutch government decided on a mixed strategy. On the one hand, trying to blunt the peak so that the medical services aren't overwhelmed, but also give the virus time to spread through the population at a slower pace to build up herd immunity. Slowing it down by avoiding large gatherings of people, but not completely shutting society down.
With my limited understanding of the issues, it sounded like a good strategy. The other strategies, either letting it roam unchecked to quickly build up herd immunity at the expense of more deaths, or trying to clamp down in force to try to maximally suppress it, to me seem less promising. Especially the last one which is doubtful whether it will work.
Jan
With my limited understanding of the issues, it sounded like a good strategy. The other strategies, either letting it roam unchecked to quickly build up herd immunity at the expense of more deaths, or trying to clamp down in force to try to maximally suppress it, to me seem less promising. Especially the last one which is doubtful whether it will work.
Jan
It's relevant to determine who is likely to die as a result of contracting this virus. There are not a lot of statistics out there, but here in the Seattle area we've had a preponderance of the elderly and those with existing ilnesses apparently being very susceptible to fatal complications: pneumonia, especially. But that's all I know about the present subject.
To me, it looks like the 'Spanish' flu affected a broader range of victims. But given the remarkable measures first nation governments are going to, this novel virus apparently warrants serious concern to us all. Time will tell. I'm not greatly worried. Yet. Just taking some basic precautions as widely recommended.
To me, it looks like the 'Spanish' flu affected a broader range of victims. But given the remarkable measures first nation governments are going to, this novel virus apparently warrants serious concern to us all. Time will tell. I'm not greatly worried. Yet. Just taking some basic precautions as widely recommended.
Seems the Dutch approach was a bit more nuanced that the one here. Clearly you want the population to be immunized, but as someone explained, it’s usually done through vaccines - once you get past the 60% mark, you can keep overall infection rates down to manageable levels and the transmission between individuals is greatly reduced. The problem is no one has tried ‘self immunization’ with what is a serious pathogen. As I understand it, UCL and the Centre for Tropical Diseases in London told the government they were playing with fire with their approach - 260k deaths, 2 million hospitalizations in their models. This led to the dramatic (but some say not draconian enough) change in policy announced last night.
I think the French, Belgians etc have got it right. Whatever happens, the global economy will take a hit. Just roll with it folks!
I am from China, and I can tell you clearly that if you have this disease, you can only rely on God for life and death. Now only isolation is the most effective.
Seems very sensible to me, the lockdown option will no doubt have an even bigger impact on economy. Just had a look at my stocks, funds and savings... Not going to be easy. Better roll with the punches like you say.
For years I've been telling my wife we should get some chickens, then went over to rabbits when chickens was no-go. I brought up the issue yesterday again, making a case for the rabbits because I knew she'd oppose, and then suddenly she suggested getting chickens!
I won! yay! Only took me about 5 years...
My sympathies for those who lost their loved ones due to virus.
But since this started in January in china and till now (March end(Total approx 10/12 weeks)) the data available says 2/3% deaths in china out of total infected people. But Italy and Iran which I think had more recent outbreak (in Just 2/3 weeks) has confirmed approx. 7% death. What does this tells us? Were real figures not shared of earlier outbreak? I am not against any country or people but real data and procedure would have alerted and helped other countries in preparing and management of the spread. Sooner the better would have helped as this is the procedure that countries which are noticing the spread recently are following.
All the best to everyone.
Regards
But since this started in January in china and till now (March end(Total approx 10/12 weeks)) the data available says 2/3% deaths in china out of total infected people. But Italy and Iran which I think had more recent outbreak (in Just 2/3 weeks) has confirmed approx. 7% death. What does this tells us? Were real figures not shared of earlier outbreak? I am not against any country or people but real data and procedure would have alerted and helped other countries in preparing and management of the spread. Sooner the better would have helped as this is the procedure that countries which are noticing the spread recently are following.
All the best to everyone.
Regards
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There are two types of people here, those who understand "unchecked exponential growth rate" and those who don't. Math doesn't lie.....if you feed it the right numbers. The "right" numbers are not known yet, and vary widely depending on who you listen to. Even with the most conservative numbers, this could be ugly.
Growing up in South Florida taught me how one "unchecked idiot" on TV can create a store emptying event on a local South Florida scale. It happened every time there was a hurricane, even if it was 2000 miles away. This situation proved that it can be even worse when taken to a national scale.
I might be considered guilty of hoarding "rolls" in preparation for an extended self confinement period...….See picture.
I am in the high risk population being 67 years old with unknown cardiac issues.
Despite the "no cases in West Virginia" statements on TV, I could have been exposed by three trips to the dentist where people were digging around in my mouth in the last two weeks. You can see Ohio from the dentists office. It's less than a mile away. Two of my grandkids attend a Christian school in Ohio where the pastor has been confirmed positive.
The governor of Ohio has said publicly several times that he believes that there are about 100,000 undiscovered cases in his state, yet people here believe that it isn't here? What, the virus can't cross the river?
The truth lies somewhere between these two extremes. Hopefully it will be discovered before something ugly happens.
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Don’t eat animals. That’s part of the reason we have this. SARS, Covid-19 and remember BSE? Spanish flu almost certainly also came from animals.
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