To look at it from their site - anyone who is in that business is now...out of business. Either they are done when sold out of on-hand inventory, or their suppliers are going to be in a similar spot and prices will go up for them. If someone actually made a living only reselling tubes...they are done. 🙁
https://www.gearnews.com/mike-matth...ix-says-no-more-russian-vacuum-tubes-in-2022/
Something else to consider, if this factory is truly owned by an American (vs. being held and controlled by a local entity, I don't know Russian business law) - I hate to say it but that puts it at high-risk for either being expropriated or them being forced to sell it (likely at a loss and likely in a manner which would be very damaging). No positive way to look at this.
Something else to consider, if this factory is truly owned by an American (vs. being held and controlled by a local entity, I don't know Russian business law) - I hate to say it but that puts it at high-risk for either being expropriated or them being forced to sell it (likely at a loss and likely in a manner which would be very damaging). No positive way to look at this.
JJ produces in Slovakia, PSVane, Shuguang, Golden Treasures, Linlai (not known here, but very popular in Japan & China.) and a few more are made in the Shengzen region of China. And you got some very expensive boutique builders like Elrog (Germany) or Sophia Electric (actually top level OEM tubes from Shuguan and PSVane build to specs set by Sophia Electric) in the US. There is more in the world than New Sensor brands or NOS tubes. I'm running full top level Shuguang tubes on my devices now and they are among the best new production arround, and better than a lot of NOS i had in my hands.
The question is what percent of global production Russia represents, and what happens to price, availability, and hopefully not, quality with this giant hole in the production. It sounds like before this, all of them were producing at near capacity and barely able to keep up. End result is tubes will go to the highest bidder, which will likely mean audio gear makers who can afford it, then hobbyists who can afford it. There will be tubes, they just might be much more expensive and harder to get. Maybe we are in the era of $100 base price KT88s going forward?
The other concern is if like vinyl, scaling up production isn't as easy as ordering a new set of tooling - meaning many can't or won't take the leap to expand.
The other concern is if like vinyl, scaling up production isn't as easy as ordering a new set of tooling - meaning many can't or won't take the leap to expand.
Audiophiles just aren't going to care if KT88’s cost $100, $300, or even $500. They will just pay it. The tube cost is often a drop in the bucket anyway, and many are used to paying too much for everything anyway.
If prices aren’t “reasonable” when it comes to re-tubing one of my DIY amps, I’ll just tear the thing down and rebuild it around whatever TV tubes I can get (or have on hand) at the time. I’d be ordering more of them now, except I’m in the middle of a “mad scramble” Mouser order to get things that are far more critical to the next 5 years work on THIS billing cycle, and before it all disappears. I don’t like paying $7 for a $2 hexfet any more than paying $100 for a $40 6550 - but those parts ARE more critical right now.
If prices aren’t “reasonable” when it comes to re-tubing one of my DIY amps, I’ll just tear the thing down and rebuild it around whatever TV tubes I can get (or have on hand) at the time. I’d be ordering more of them now, except I’m in the middle of a “mad scramble” Mouser order to get things that are far more critical to the next 5 years work on THIS billing cycle, and before it all disappears. I don’t like paying $7 for a $2 hexfet any more than paying $100 for a $40 6550 - but those parts ARE more critical right now.
Well, if Herr Putin banned tube export from Russia we dont have to fear our money will go there and support his war.
Instead of that, our money will probably go to war profiteers in the rest of the world for their inflated tube prices...
Instead of that, our money will probably go to war profiteers in the rest of the world for their inflated tube prices...
The scary thing is why were TUBES chosen? It could be as simple as something to 'inconvenience' the West, but might they want the factory for something?
Got to ramp up production of those 6C33’s for their radar systems? Can you say stone knives and bear skins?
If not 'traditional' tubes (in the sense we are talking about)...something else related (night vision or the like) the factory could produce? Or worse yet parts of the factory that were needed for something somewhere else? 🙁
My apologies if this has already been covered here (I haven't read every post in this thread), but I wonder if Shuguang can, or will, ramp up production. In a sense, they might now end up with a corner on the market. Wouldn't they try to capitalize on that apple falling in their lap? Their "economy" Sino line is probably fine for utilitarian guitar amps (my area of the hobby).
https://www.tubedepot.com/t/brands/sino-chinese
https://www.thetubestore.com/tube-brands/shuguang/standard-shuguang-tubes
https://www.tubedepot.com/t/brands/sino-chinese
https://www.thetubestore.com/tube-brands/shuguang/standard-shuguang-tubes
Oh, 100% agree JJ (Slovakia) and the Chinese brand(s) will try to fill the gap. My concern is if they have the ability to scale (you can't order tube production equipment from a catalog and have it delivered in a few months...probably a long, slow, expensive process to make new gear from scratch), if the quality suffers in the rush for volume, or other issues choke the ability to scale up.
The other thing they will ask themselves is what the end game is for New Sensor. If Slovakia and China scale up...then the situation improves and New Sensor is back online, that would backfire if there was a oversupply situation and prices dropped (good for us, not good for them, they need to take care of themselves first). This happens in a lot of specialty industries when there is a surge in demand. Do you take 1, 2 years to scale up...only to see demand drop? Often it is best to optimize what you have, move to multiple shifts, make your operation more efficient, but otherwise don't scale up tooling and the like.
As I said earlier, I imagine every audio and guitar amp brand is becoming best friends with JJ and the Chinese brands to secure a reliable supply of tubes for their products...and willing to pay dearly for it (meaning the end user will pay). A McIntosh MC275 currently retails for $6,500 and they could easily pop that up to $7,000, 7,500 to cover more expensive tubes. For fun I checked and if you order a replacement set (all 11 tubes) from McIntosh directly, it is about $900...that is before this situation unfolded.
If there is a silver lining, this might be the sort of opportunity someone, somewhere in the world was looking for to do something new. Or even JJ or a China brand taking the leap to invest in better production, QC.
The other thing they will ask themselves is what the end game is for New Sensor. If Slovakia and China scale up...then the situation improves and New Sensor is back online, that would backfire if there was a oversupply situation and prices dropped (good for us, not good for them, they need to take care of themselves first). This happens in a lot of specialty industries when there is a surge in demand. Do you take 1, 2 years to scale up...only to see demand drop? Often it is best to optimize what you have, move to multiple shifts, make your operation more efficient, but otherwise don't scale up tooling and the like.
As I said earlier, I imagine every audio and guitar amp brand is becoming best friends with JJ and the Chinese brands to secure a reliable supply of tubes for their products...and willing to pay dearly for it (meaning the end user will pay). A McIntosh MC275 currently retails for $6,500 and they could easily pop that up to $7,000, 7,500 to cover more expensive tubes. For fun I checked and if you order a replacement set (all 11 tubes) from McIntosh directly, it is about $900...that is before this situation unfolded.
If there is a silver lining, this might be the sort of opportunity someone, somewhere in the world was looking for to do something new. Or even JJ or a China brand taking the leap to invest in better production, QC.
I know Shuguang and other chinese suppliers have huge stocks of tubes, so a temporally higher demand is not an issue for them. A company like Shuguang makes huge ammount of tubes and then start measuring them and branding after that depending on the quality. But the production goes way faster than they can test and brand them. A guy i know who works for a big tube amp brand goes regulary to their stocks and started to measure himself to get the tubes he needs for that company, because chinese could not test fast enough. He says the warehouses are so loaded that if they stop production for 10 years they still not run out of stock. The chinese militairy (who owns Shuguang indirectly) still uses tubes and they are the ones that are still keeping the factories alive (and only take the ones that meet their specs) The surplus is sold to the audio market. PSvane is a spinoff of that huge Shuguang factory, but also works for the militairy also.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is clearly abhorrent and I applaud those who decide not to buy Russian parts any more. But what about China's disgusting human rights record? On another forum I said I was no longer buying my PCBs or components from China. The main response was that my few tens of dollars business will make no difference. Go figure.
Cheers
Ian
Cheers
Ian
Then we also should not buy American good anymore, because (violent) racism, colonialism and so is also still a big issue in the US. Just like the aggressive American politricks in many parts of the world. But now we are getting political which we shouldn't down here...
Lots of the world's leaders are douchebags, that doesn't mean the people in the country are all douchebags.
Because Putin invaded Ukraine means all Russians are garbage? Not to me.
Just saying. I tend to like everyone until they give me a reason not to.
Because Putin invaded Ukraine means all Russians are garbage? Not to me.
Just saying. I tend to like everyone until they give me a reason not to.
Other long term effects of a tube shortage include boutique output transformer winders going into early retirement. On the other hand, maybe Sowter will be forced to reverse their recent price hikes.
Boutique transformers tend to cost more than even stupidly priced KT88’s. Cost-effective transformer winders will be the ones who take the hit.
I read a story about when the Americans inspected the Russian nuclear sites and were shocked to see their guidance systems were tube based. We were worried about their advanced technology but they were still using tubes and most of what they had was antiquated.
I wonder if them using the 6C33 as the modulator for the MiG radar was urban legend or fact…
It just conjures up images of Spock and that row of what looked like 2A3’s catching on fire.
It just conjures up images of Spock and that row of what looked like 2A3’s catching on fire.