In my nick of the woods there's a lot of speculation on a Chinese move on Taiwan.
I don't want to discuss that as it's against the rules.
But if there is a real chance, should we stock up on chips?
If you had a war chest of $ 500, which chips would you stock up on?
Jan
I don't want to discuss that as it's against the rules.
But if there is a real chance, should we stock up on chips?
If you had a war chest of $ 500, which chips would you stock up on?
Jan
Anything that will resell big, but the question is what chips would resell if almost none are available?
Hard to answer that one.
The alternative is any chip that isn't stocked and you can make work in a product that is surrounded by chips that are in stock.
To each their own🙂
Hard to answer that one.
The alternative is any chip that isn't stocked and you can make work in a product that is surrounded by chips that are in stock.
To each their own🙂
TSMC is known for its deep submicron CMOS processes, so I guess computer chips, FPGAs, and all sorts of SoCs will be affected. Maybe that includes some sigma-delta audio DACs. Fortunately, TSMC also has factories outside Taiwan.
Absolutely. Yet this website gives the impression there's a lot of older lithography taking place, but better research than a quick search should be done.
https://www.taiwansemi.com/en
https://www.taiwansemi.com/en
Realistically, the right time to stock up was before all the price hikes IMO. If you can afford it now, why not, but it's going to cost you more than in normal times.
I've taken the route of cutting down on buying new parts myself but then again, to me it's merely a hobby. Patience until things go back to normal.
I've taken the route of cutting down on buying new parts myself but then again, to me it's merely a hobby. Patience until things go back to normal.
With a simple differential input stage a voltage regulator can be easily created using only four transistors with two used for the differential input and another two used in a Sziklai configuration. I used this simple setup, it simulates very well under LTSpice, and above all, works very well.
If I had a war chest of 500$ I would probably save it to buy food in the times that are coming. Audio is the least of our problems. The support to the Taiwanese is more important than selfishly thinking of luxury items. Sorry.
Then the World Championship football in Qatar at the expense of 6750 lives and people defending their choice to go as "I have the right to...". The world is changing.....
Then the World Championship football in Qatar at the expense of 6750 lives and people defending their choice to go as "I have the right to...". The world is changing.....
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Things are never going back to normal. Politicians announced this pretty early. It will only get worse.
China grabbing for Taiwan is just a matter of time.
Sure this will affect the semiconductor industry.
Currently the semiconductor shortage is coming to an end, yet everything including semiconductors is getting more and more expensive.
Despite it was clear that the semi shortage is temporary from the beginning on, governments supported chipmakers to build new fabs outside Taiwan, at „home“. Those fabs were meant to ease the shortage, but will not become productive prior the end of the foreseeable shortage. So I wonder why there was an initiative like this in the first place. The most probable answer is that many people see the CN TW conflict as inevitable and started to prepare early.
Stocking up for yo own projects is clever. Making money by becoming a broker is difficult and you would need to invest much more money and know the market trend and demand well.
500$ is not a lot to invest. Buy something useful that will help you survive.
China grabbing for Taiwan is just a matter of time.
Sure this will affect the semiconductor industry.
Currently the semiconductor shortage is coming to an end, yet everything including semiconductors is getting more and more expensive.
Despite it was clear that the semi shortage is temporary from the beginning on, governments supported chipmakers to build new fabs outside Taiwan, at „home“. Those fabs were meant to ease the shortage, but will not become productive prior the end of the foreseeable shortage. So I wonder why there was an initiative like this in the first place. The most probable answer is that many people see the CN TW conflict as inevitable and started to prepare early.
Stocking up for yo own projects is clever. Making money by becoming a broker is difficult and you would need to invest much more money and know the market trend and demand well.
500$ is not a lot to invest. Buy something useful that will help you survive.
I am not famiar with the chips industry, but I would think that if the sh*t hits the fan, any remaining capacity in our part of the world would immediately be recruted for the car industry. Is that a possibility?
Jan
Jan
Some clothing production and medicine production already came back to Germany I saw recently. The car industry likely will have taken precautions although they are not in their best days at the moment. If I would have to assume I would think a large part of the production capacity will go to producing military stuff (if things were not bad enough already). What I learned is that much of the stockpile of the worlds largest weapon exporter has gone to the war in Ukraine so countries that expect trouble will need to stock up. Mostly UAVs, guided rocket systems and air defense systems probably.
I think we all have learned what the danger to us is. A total monopoly on production of all the stuff we really need by one nation.
I think we all have learned what the danger to us is. A total monopoly on production of all the stuff we really need by one nation.
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That would be remenicient of the 1873 Arab oil embargo. A big difference is that the oil embargo was, inevitably, relatively short term. China’s taking of Taiwan, and control of it’s semiconductor industry, would be a fixed annexation for the foreseeable future.
Such as being in the vicinity of an EMP blast, then most semiconductor related becomes meaningless, better to stock up on whatever keeps a human alive.
edit: last week our local news media urged citizens to stock up on potassium iodide.
"Ministry of Social Affairs and Health updates guidelines on the use of iodine in case of a radiation hazard - 11.10.2022 10.31 press release"
https://stm.fi/-/sosiaali-ja-tervey...osta-sateilyvaaratilanteessa?languageId=en_US
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Most of the parts in the title come from the country that has announced their intention to invade, which would be embargoed if they follow through on their intention. No discretes & linear from TWSC.
There are other risks. I had a pretty good collection of through hole transistors, op amps, regulators, in anticipation of surface mount taking over the world. I had over half the EIA resistor values. Caught the closeout of ON semi PHI fab, firesale prices by newark. All that was carried off by the burglar in 2020, to the scrap yard. I imagine he was paid scrap steel prices for that stuff, they all had magnetic leads. "I was paid by Nicole to clean out the house since the old man died" was his story to the police sergeant. I'm not dead, but my linear building hobby may as well be. Took me a year to afford 2 DVM's to finish my shade driver engine project for a church, and right after I bought them the church fired my team for not finishing the organ in time. The pro organ builders might cost them $100000 but they will meet the deadline.
Other risks, rain comes in huge thousand year deluges instead of gentle seasonal rains, now. My city house last flooded in 1937, and a floodwall was built afterwards, but we know how that worked in New Orleans. East Ky was deluged 3 months ago. If I move the hobbies to the summer camp, the risk is it was missed by a F2 tornado by 2 miles in 2017. No high speed internet out there, no natural gas, no packaged nutricious food, all that is in town. It would cost $1000 a month to heat that drafty 1976 trailer. Pluses out there, saw a Kroger delivery van 1/2 mile from my camp this summer, and Musk's satellite internet service is costing the same per month as ATT charges now for my city house 200 yards from the end of fiber optic cable.
Those of you in popular coastal states, fires are 500% more prevalent out west due to drought. Florida and the east coast have to put up with storm surges from hurricanes much frequently than 10 years sgo.
Miss the old inventory. Had MJ15015 for $1.50 each, MJ21193/4 for $3,hundred MPS8099 for $.08, MPSA56 for $.21. All melted down by now into steel. Anything TO3 is now >$10. New Klein DVM's the probes are impossible to use on microelectronics due to the plastic shielded probes, and replacement banana plug probes pop out of the hole. Plus DVM Ohms tests at 0.2 volts which is useless for circuit tracing PCB's. Won't break the oxide unless scratched. Going to build a 3 v source ohmmeter with a USAF surplus 50 microamp meter with pointer. @#$(*&^%!
There are other risks. I had a pretty good collection of through hole transistors, op amps, regulators, in anticipation of surface mount taking over the world. I had over half the EIA resistor values. Caught the closeout of ON semi PHI fab, firesale prices by newark. All that was carried off by the burglar in 2020, to the scrap yard. I imagine he was paid scrap steel prices for that stuff, they all had magnetic leads. "I was paid by Nicole to clean out the house since the old man died" was his story to the police sergeant. I'm not dead, but my linear building hobby may as well be. Took me a year to afford 2 DVM's to finish my shade driver engine project for a church, and right after I bought them the church fired my team for not finishing the organ in time. The pro organ builders might cost them $100000 but they will meet the deadline.
Other risks, rain comes in huge thousand year deluges instead of gentle seasonal rains, now. My city house last flooded in 1937, and a floodwall was built afterwards, but we know how that worked in New Orleans. East Ky was deluged 3 months ago. If I move the hobbies to the summer camp, the risk is it was missed by a F2 tornado by 2 miles in 2017. No high speed internet out there, no natural gas, no packaged nutricious food, all that is in town. It would cost $1000 a month to heat that drafty 1976 trailer. Pluses out there, saw a Kroger delivery van 1/2 mile from my camp this summer, and Musk's satellite internet service is costing the same per month as ATT charges now for my city house 200 yards from the end of fiber optic cable.
Those of you in popular coastal states, fires are 500% more prevalent out west due to drought. Florida and the east coast have to put up with storm surges from hurricanes much frequently than 10 years sgo.
Miss the old inventory. Had MJ15015 for $1.50 each, MJ21193/4 for $3,hundred MPS8099 for $.08, MPSA56 for $.21. All melted down by now into steel. Anything TO3 is now >$10. New Klein DVM's the probes are impossible to use on microelectronics due to the plastic shielded probes, and replacement banana plug probes pop out of the hole. Plus DVM Ohms tests at 0.2 volts which is useless for circuit tracing PCB's. Won't break the oxide unless scratched. Going to build a 3 v source ohmmeter with a USAF surplus 50 microamp meter with pointer. @#$(*&^%!
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I think you shouldn't take stock up items for fear of not finding about it (unless you want to make a speculation), but only for a regular forecast of use compared to the past or if you have a new project in your mind.
People's behavior does matter and can change things, for the better or worse.
Just as a snake that bites its tail whatever you buy to stock up (if a full-scale) it will become less available and therefore its price will increase, and so on.
And since times and things change you may even never need what you bought...
People's behavior does matter and can change things, for the better or worse.
Just as a snake that bites its tail whatever you buy to stock up (if a full-scale) it will become less available and therefore its price will increase, and so on.
And since times and things change you may even never need what you bought...
I wouldn't stock up to make money.
But I think if things get hard, some way to loose yourself in a hobby for a few hours now and then might give some peace of mind.
I don't fear lack of food or water, there are enough ways to make it in a pinch for lots of people.
Although it may not reach all, but that's already the case now.
Jan
But I think if things get hard, some way to loose yourself in a hobby for a few hours now and then might give some peace of mind.
I don't fear lack of food or water, there are enough ways to make it in a pinch for lots of people.
Although it may not reach all, but that's already the case now.
Jan
In my case i'm stocking up on what i will build im the next year or two. If sh*t hits the fan, i know i'd rather have silver than chips 🙂
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