Cost of transistors : increase or decrease ?

For next 9 months, do you think costs will

  • return to back ?

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • only increase ?

    Votes: 14 100.0%

  • Total voters
    14
  • Poll closed .
To be honest, I dont think these shortages are only semis.

From this side of the Pond

From my small exploits in sourcing components for repairs at work, I've been stunned that some, particularly US produced items are on very long lead times for small quantities.

Now I figure 1, their production was hampered by the pandemic, (expected) and 2, the US is stockpiling much of its electronic components for local use (is this allocation?)

It wouldn't be so bad, if it wasnt that the prices are already 5 times a substitute component in say, a different mount, size, or quality.

I have found electrolytics and semis, frustrating to source.

Conversely, I have sourced some hard to find FETs from the larger semi suppliers, which I cannot normally use...bit I had to use a 3rd party to do it.

I had to resort to using my own eBay to buy some BC183L, and take a chance they arent great. Thankfully I have some good experience with the seller.

In my particular employment it's annoying after nearly 3 years of stagnation, possible redundancy, now with renewed profit, opportunities, and money to invest - and I still struggle to get the parts!

And....

Is BC557 really EOL?
Why cant I find a cheap bog standard general purpose BJT in TH anymore?
I can find expensive end of life FETs, but seemingly basic cheap parts seem elusive.
So I think the issues run a lot deeper than it appears.
I actually think it spells the end, in some cases prematurely, of cheap, staple TH parts, 7400 logic ICs, capacitors, moving coil meters - as fab labs prioritise lucrative mass production allocated to industry, such as auto, repair and maintenance are left the scraps, while brokers clean up selling at 20 times the original cost.

I think the hobbyist will lose a great many staple discrete and ICs to early EOL status, just because production ceases for a while, and stock dries up.
 
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Motorola created the MC6802 8 bit CPU in the late 70's. It found its way under the hood of several late 70's and early to mid 80's cars. The order quantities from the car manufacturers changed drastically from month to month so somewhere in the early 80's Motorola licensed the design, and furnished masks and all materials necessary for General Motors to make their own MC6802's. They were Delco branded, house numbered parts intended for use in GM engine controllers only.

In polar opposition to that scenario, the entire ECU module in all of the Chrysler turbocharged 4 cylinder cars of the mid 80's was manufactured by Motorola.

Yes, Mote pretty much owned the EMU socket globally and quite a few others. They were still dominant in the late ‘90’s. A lot of folks tried to break into that and came unstuck ( incl. Philips). But Philips became NXP and NXP became huge in auto sucking up most of this stuff and some former competitors.

I don’t say everything was roses in automotive, and back in the earlier days inventory and program management were not always perfect. But the semi industry (and the auto manufacturers) invested heavily in SCM, and things improved dramatically after about 2000. The move to fabless and assembly subcon also helped IMV.

(Been to Kokomo many times BTW 🙂 )
 
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I guess my point really was this....

I typically use suppliers we have agreements with, and the big 2 or 3 are off limits.

When suppliers like RS and Farnell cease having stock of both PNP/NPN of a particular peanut bjt it's impossible for me to buy them...

I might have the exact recollection of part no. wrong, but I'm sure I found EDIT:
RS lists BC557 as discontinued. But I could switch for BC547.if I wanted NPN.
Farnell also list BC557C as discontinued. I'm fairly sure it's the same with many PNP I've tried to find. I have more BCY07 and BC107 than BC237/557


The larger point being that these smaller giants of electronics, are getting less "allocated" heheh and the effects filter down the chain.

Without going too far in what can be said here, I had assumed that the recent change to UK would have been a huge cause of delays, but I have experienced minimal issue, and of late, exemplary service and delivery times from the EU.
 
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TO-92 devices have almost all transitioned to SOT23. The only people doing volume in these now are subcontractor assembly houses - reason is there is no further capacity or development investment in these packages and once they equipment is gone, it’s gone. A lot of the bigger guys bailed on small signal THP packages 10 yrs ago - no margin in it. EOL on the 547/557 family will come in the next few yrs. probably a good time to move to SOT23
 
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...Now I figure ....., the US is stockpiling much of its electronic components for local use (is this allocation?)...

I don't think US suppliers are holding-back. (One mega distributor was hammered by Texas snow/electric troubles.) Also we are pretty bad at agreeing on anything. Vaccines, masks, taxes, football, Brexit.... If supplier X decided to expedite US orders, supplier Y would go out and over-charge buyers from England.
 
I build mass market products for a living, and things are not good at the moment. High demand, low supply, and a lot of challenges from end-to-end.

The biggest worry (for us...people on this forum) is big fish gobbling up production capacity and squeezing out some of the niche stuff we want to buy. Is a vendor working at 100% going to chase down orders for 5,000 chipsets for a quirky audio use...or 500,000 chipsets for a global company that will then want another 500,000 after that?

Will it get better? Yes. But it might take a long while.
 
Best advice I can give is to move to SMD for small signal. TO -92 days are numbered.

BC 547/557 from semi houses in China, Taiwan and Korea don't even fully spec the devices - I suspect these are some other chip and the thing is marked/branded as 547/557 - so be careful. I’d only trust ON with this stuff (Nexperia/NXP stepped out of this in 2008 - only SMD versions).
 
Anyone who has not already started (or completed) their lifetime buys for old school leaded components is probably late for the party already. I started 4 years ago, and am just now what I consider fully stocked. Anyone starting out in hobby audio now probably needs to buy high power microscopes, pick and place machine, and a vacuum reflow chamber before doing much of anything else. I guess you can always just let the assembly shop handle that these days too - just hand you completed boards. It’s only money, right?

I wonder how long it will be before through hole PCBs will no longer be offered at the board houses. Back to terminal lugs and tubes at that point.
 
I spend half my life searching for new components at best prices.
I design a pcb with an available part only to find suddenly its no longer available.
Its a pain having to go through transistor data sheets to find equivalent or better parts at a sensible price.
I use RS Components a lot and they keep putting items on special price then later push the price up.
 
If one holds out for “collapsed prices” to occur in a year or two, they run the risk of the part they are looking for being obsolete and out of production. An then have to go searching on E-bay.

I bought in a faulty 1980's Maplin 225WRMS disco amplifier.
The only place I could get the transistors was ebay.
I usually use ebay as a last resort after bad experiences with fake transistors.