I read over here this side of the pond that Coronavirus is 200x as contagious as seasonal flue and 30x as deadly.
Those would be sensational numbers, Andrew.
We don't have the kind of data to make super-accurate estimations, but R0 (infection rate) is floating around the 1.8-2.3 range, depending on how you look at it and how effective physical distancing and contact tracing works out. Flu is in the range of 1.8 typically.
Death rate is completely speculative. Its definitely more dangerous than the flu. We simply lack the numbers to say what the true disease burden is. All the epidemiological models are careful to not make as simple/sloppy mistakes as looking at (total deaths)/ (total confirmed infected), which is how you get such numbers. The best and most concise response we have is that in normal years you don't have entire healthcare systems collapsing under the weight of the flu, whereas we have that now (said by one of the two epidemiologists I linked above) . What the exact number for deadly, no one really knows. It's bad*.
That said, the more and more widespread testing has become the more and more the infected rate looks exactly like the population curve. So there's a good likelihood that the true number of infected cases is WAY WAY WAY higher and largely asymptomatic. In this case, that is a very good thing. (Since it's water under the bridge in terms of how many have already become infected, we can only change the course of here into the future)
We don't have the kind of data to make super-accurate estimations, but R0 (infection rate) is floating around the 1.8-2.3 range, depending on how you look at it and how effective physical distancing and contact tracing works out. Flu is in the range of 1.8 typically.
Death rate is completely speculative. Its definitely more dangerous than the flu. We simply lack the numbers to say what the true disease burden is. All the epidemiological models are careful to not make as simple/sloppy mistakes as looking at (total deaths)/ (total confirmed infected), which is how you get such numbers. The best and most concise response we have is that in normal years you don't have entire healthcare systems collapsing under the weight of the flu, whereas we have that now (said by one of the two epidemiologists I linked above) . What the exact number for deadly, no one really knows. It's bad*.
That said, the more and more widespread testing has become the more and more the infected rate looks exactly like the population curve. So there's a good likelihood that the true number of infected cases is WAY WAY WAY higher and largely asymptomatic. In this case, that is a very good thing. (Since it's water under the bridge in terms of how many have already become infected, we can only change the course of here into the future)
Those are not facts. Some of them are, but you need to check your sources on the whole vaccine thing. Similarly, anti-bacterial handwashes don't make a lick of difference here with a virus versus normal soaps, where the detergents are generally quite effective (with good technique) at dislodging the virus particles from the skin and, to some degree, destroying key pathways of the virus (innoculation).
We engineers at the hospital I work at are talking about how we can effectively sterilize PPE to reduce the scarcity. Incineration has been the policy, but 1.) we have already relaxed standards in line with resources, 2.) it's not a fundamental limitation.
Testing everyone would be a nice goal, but the tests are scarce because this thing has come upon us quickly and very country is vying to get as many as they can.
New test will come.
Something i saw yesterday was quite eye opening.
S Korea got their 1st case Jan 20. The USA Jan 21.
Korea quickly went on to testing some 4% of the population, and now look to be recovering. Initial US testing was 5 per million.
Similarily w msks. In short supply an best saved for the professionals who really, really need them — and know how to use them.Much of the general population will not know how to remove the mask (the time at which infection is most likely to occur, causes one to youch their face more often, and are often not worn properly.
There may be some benefit to a mask, but it does not in any way remove the need to maintain the 2m bubble. If you want a mask, make one yourself, it does nit need to be an N95/100.These items are currently scarce, and likely will be until this is all over and we no longer need them. Like in any war (i consider this WW3 — humans against Gaia), strategic supplies need to be used strategically.
As painful as it is, economically and personally, the only move we have is to stay away from everyone else, excerise caution, wash your hands well & often,and clean, clean, clean.
dave
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I'm talking about the past years (20+) use of anti-bacterial soaps. Not now.
Same as the vaccines. Past years. The human race as a whole has gone too aseptic. We have become complacent and do not get exposed to normal levels of bacteria, viruses etc. Our immune systems need to be stimulated by natural contamination not lab grown chemicals.
There are a few ways that the masks can be sterilised - high intensity UV, high levels of ozone, autoclaves amongst a few. Gloves are virtually impossible to sterilise.
I myself am at risk, but that is due to a history of asthma. Being vigilant, but not overboard. In any case, can't stand the closeness of masks and gloves. I perspire very easily and become very uncomfortable very quickly.
P.S. Work at the University of Pretoria, and have had numerous discussions with doctors over the years at the academic hospital. That is where my comment re vaccines comes from. And this is a world renowned academic research facility. The biggest problem South Africa has is that almost 20% of the population is HIV positive and less than 50% of these are on ARVs. That's a helluva lot of people that are at risk.
Same as the vaccines. Past years. The human race as a whole has gone too aseptic. We have become complacent and do not get exposed to normal levels of bacteria, viruses etc. Our immune systems need to be stimulated by natural contamination not lab grown chemicals.
There are a few ways that the masks can be sterilised - high intensity UV, high levels of ozone, autoclaves amongst a few. Gloves are virtually impossible to sterilise.
I myself am at risk, but that is due to a history of asthma. Being vigilant, but not overboard. In any case, can't stand the closeness of masks and gloves. I perspire very easily and become very uncomfortable very quickly.
P.S. Work at the University of Pretoria, and have had numerous discussions with doctors over the years at the academic hospital. That is where my comment re vaccines comes from. And this is a world renowned academic research facility. The biggest problem South Africa has is that almost 20% of the population is HIV positive and less than 50% of these are on ARVs. That's a helluva lot of people that are at risk.
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This is coming on far too fast to try this tactic out. A poor study suggested this wa sthe way to go, and for 1, the UK at 1st thot that this would be the way to go. It took about a week before they realized the short-sighetness of herd immunity.
Given the number we have, the increas ein cases is something like 40% / day. If my math is right, that 7 day delay suggested 10x as many cases, it could well push the health car estsyemm over the edge, leading to many more deaths, many of them the critical doctors, nurses, and other healthcare workers, a population we can ill afford to use (not to mention a much larger number sent to the sidelines because they got ill).
Herd immunity will come, quite possibly due to a vaccine, but it needs time to develop and we do not have that. It is in even more precious than masks, tests, and vents.
dave
Due to shortages, clever people are figuring out how to sterilize them for reuse. Last nite i saw video of a company (in Vancouver) using their mattress steraliztion facility to see if they can sufficiently steralize masks. A combination of heat, UV, partial vaccum (and maybe more)/
I meant to ad dthat to my post as well. Thanx.
Gloves, in paces like grocery stores and such, are more for the clientel than for the person wearing the gloves. The virus survives on plastic gloves MUCH longer than your skin. Just wash your hands. Often.
dave
This is the best analysis of the existing data i have been able to find. Unfortunaelty charts are 3 weeks old.
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now - Tomas Pueyo - Medium
dave
People over her have resorted to using butcher bags at grocers et al. These are/were? available in bags of 200/500/1000 and are relatively cheap; and very disposable.
P.S. should have been "good bacteria" not "god"
P.S. should have been "good bacteria" not "god"
Sorry to hear about your at-risk nature. Agree with a lot of what you say (and proper glove technique is WAY better than "just washing hands", Dave), especially the part about the nonsense known as anti-bacterial soaps.
But the over-vaccination issue is far outside of mainstream medicine/science.
The point about (almost) everyone being too insular and not exposed to a large number of generally benign foreign substances is well founded. But that is above and beyond the vaccinations we substantially benefit from -- they are complementary.
In any case, that is tangential to COVID-19. We're immune naive here and only have hopes of a vaccine in the next 12 months.
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You have to read the prepubs going into academic journals to get the real deal; fortunately most of those articles are open access. That's a nice link, but certainly not comprehensive nor up to date.
Freddi -- that article has essentially nothing to do with anything relevant here.
Thanks DPH.
I personally have not had a flu vaccination in over fifteen years. Last had flu fifteen years ago - after I had the vaccination.
I had 5 cats (now 3 unfortunately) and my problem is I am allergic to them - I usually pickup sinus infections, which if not checked rapidly can devolve into tonsilitis (still have mine) and eventually bronchitis. Touch wood, not had since last year this time. I have kept the cats out of the living area (bedrooms and lounge) for seven years now, and that has been the best cure. I hate it (love them,) but best for my health. Anyhow, we (the Uni) are most working from home now, as SA is in a lock-down. Plus I was at home since 22 Jan recovering from a foot operation, and only had 2 weeks of work before told to work from home. Virtually in isolation as it is. Had minimum interaction with people in the 2 weeks at work. Still on crutches. Stocked up on vittles and ducked into my property.
I personally have not had a flu vaccination in over fifteen years. Last had flu fifteen years ago - after I had the vaccination.
I had 5 cats (now 3 unfortunately) and my problem is I am allergic to them - I usually pickup sinus infections, which if not checked rapidly can devolve into tonsilitis (still have mine) and eventually bronchitis. Touch wood, not had since last year this time. I have kept the cats out of the living area (bedrooms and lounge) for seven years now, and that has been the best cure. I hate it (love them,) but best for my health. Anyhow, we (the Uni) are most working from home now, as SA is in a lock-down. Plus I was at home since 22 Jan recovering from a foot operation, and only had 2 weeks of work before told to work from home. Virtually in isolation as it is. Had minimum interaction with people in the 2 weeks at work. Still on crutches. Stocked up on vittles and ducked into my property.
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planet₁₀;6142058 said:
Dave, it is precisely because of the speed of this disease spreading that developing, if not encouraging herd immunity is the only real solution, IF we are to live our lives going forward, assuming that a vaccine is either hard to mass produce (i.e. late), hard to determine if works (late), or has side effects that the public doesn't like.
Perhaps you need to read what I wrote a bit more carefully. There is no bunged up studies showing that community immunity does not work: universally, it does, if it comes in time, or is passively 'encouraged' in situ.
Try again, friend.
Letting the majority (healthy, young, uncompromised) of the public “catch it” while using much more aggressive anti-catch-and-anti-transmit barrier tech in the home, in public places, is the key.
Remember, China supposedly has topped out. How? Aggressive barrier requirements. Couple that idea with 'relaxed barrier' procedures for the young-and-statistically-not-markedly-harmed, and we gain community immunity. That alone has the RO drop from 2.5 (or whatever it nominally is) to under 0.5. Key, critical, unattainable in any other way until millions of doses of a high-functioning vaccine are available.
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
I saw a video of a doctor putting on a clear garbage bag, inflating it with helium/oxygen to put himself in s protective bubble. He then went in and removed a throat tube, getting a whack of infectious droplets all over the bag. Then one just had to carefully remove the bag.
dave
I have never had one. And no cold or flu for at least a decade.
I am officially in the vulnerable age group, i figure i would probably live thru it, but i saw a recovered 30-year old describing the pain, and that is not somethign i want to go thru.
dave
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