I'd like to hopefully restart a thread on COVID-19 / SARS-CoV-2 that was going quite well until it was hopelessly derailed by politics. I hope we can keep it civil and avoid discussion of politics, conspiracy theories, and religion as well to avoid burdening the moderators.
Please keep your Illuminati bioweapon or hoax opinion stuff out of here and stick to discussion and posts based in science. If you don't believe in the virus, go post somewhere else.
There are some good (if lengthy) podcasts with virologists and doctors in the US here:
This Week in Virology | A podcast about viruses - the kind that make you sick
Episode 595 and the discussions with Ian Lipkin and Mark Denison are very much worth listening to.
This is also a good video from UCSF, even if the data is 10+ days old now:
YouTube
Please keep your Illuminati bioweapon or hoax opinion stuff out of here and stick to discussion and posts based in science. If you don't believe in the virus, go post somewhere else.
There are some good (if lengthy) podcasts with virologists and doctors in the US here:
This Week in Virology | A podcast about viruses - the kind that make you sick
Episode 595 and the discussions with Ian Lipkin and Mark Denison are very much worth listening to.
This is also a good video from UCSF, even if the data is 10+ days old now:
YouTube
Something that occurred to me yesterday watching a cat in the garden, can pets carry it on their fur after being stroked?
Probably. I would guess fur is not that hospitable, similar to cotton clothing, but I see no reason it wouldn't be able to remain viable there for some amount of time.
There is one cat that appears to have been infected in Belgium:
Cat infected with COVID-19 from owner in Belgium | Live Science
The cat survived and I guess we don't have enough evidence to know if the virus caused disease in the cat.
A concise list of findings on what can be done to minimize the risk of becoming severe in case of contacting the infection would be useful.
Be under 20 years of age? 🙂
There’s nothing that stands out as much as age so far. Anecdotally, it seems that high BMI, hypertension, and diabetes are leading to worse outcomes, but it’s down to your individual immune response.
Antivirals could help, but we need to see data.
There aren’t too many studies I’m aware of in humans, but in animals the initial viral inoculum (volume) for several viruses has been shown to alter the course of disease. Might be worthwhile to use a mask in an effort to decrease your initial dose.
I’m not a virologist or MD so please fact check anything I post on this topic.
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I’ve stopped letting people pet our dogs when we’re walking them on the public path/park near the house......the regulars and the dogs both look at me sideways when I shorten the leash, oh well, better sideways looks than being on a ventilator!
Sod them! 😉 People are getting it a bit more here now I think. Me and my brother are caring for my elderly mother at the moment, she has many health issues now, but COPD means she wouldn't stand a chance if she got the virus. So we are taking isolation and hygiene very seriously indeed, we are getting used to it, we have to 🙂. Take care everyone.
Definitely if you cough on them or stroke them with a cough sprayed palm.
Like on any other object.
After strokes with clean hands, even if carrying the virus?
Healthy skin is supposed to be a barrier, so it should work both ways.
To clarify my post above, by "getting it" I meant, understanding better the importance of distancing
My thought was some cats are very gregarious and could have been out and about getting stroked all over the place, with all the talk about the virus I haven't heard it mentioned.
I asked the folks in my research center for some help on what's truly going on in the epidemiological side. A couple of them turned me on to these folks:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch
Both of whom are liberally linking to academic papers and models of both their research groups and collaborators, so are a good jump-off platform.
As far as cats and carrying disease -- I have not heard of either them nor dogs getting *infected*, but inasmuch as carrying SARS-COV-2 on their fur, best to treat it like other organic surfaces and assume the virus can remain viable on the surface for a couple days. So probably best to avoid getting licked in the face and be thorough in cleanup. Pets haven't been implicated as a major vector thus far, and I doubt they will given how easy human-human contact is to transmission (you can almost look at it like Ohms law with two parallel conductance pathways if it helps). It is generally rare to have viruses jump species, which is a major reason why (miraculous as it is) we have had so few pandemics in the past 100 years and also why we are so so hopelessly immune naive to SARS-COV-2 because we have not been infected by tons of its biological siblings with similar pathways.
Pretty much regardless the disease, the healthier you are going in, the better your outcomes are. Exercise/sleep/diet/mental well-being are all so so incredibly important and interlinked. Trying to tease these apart to say one is more important is a fools errand and misses the point entirely. I realize this is a really tough time to be making life changes, but the sooner one can get into a healthful routine, the better life will be across the board. (Personally beyond guilty on the sleep one)
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch
Both of whom are liberally linking to academic papers and models of both their research groups and collaborators, so are a good jump-off platform.
As far as cats and carrying disease -- I have not heard of either them nor dogs getting *infected*, but inasmuch as carrying SARS-COV-2 on their fur, best to treat it like other organic surfaces and assume the virus can remain viable on the surface for a couple days. So probably best to avoid getting licked in the face and be thorough in cleanup. Pets haven't been implicated as a major vector thus far, and I doubt they will given how easy human-human contact is to transmission (you can almost look at it like Ohms law with two parallel conductance pathways if it helps). It is generally rare to have viruses jump species, which is a major reason why (miraculous as it is) we have had so few pandemics in the past 100 years and also why we are so so hopelessly immune naive to SARS-COV-2 because we have not been infected by tons of its biological siblings with similar pathways.
Pretty much regardless the disease, the healthier you are going in, the better your outcomes are. Exercise/sleep/diet/mental well-being are all so so incredibly important and interlinked. Trying to tease these apart to say one is more important is a fools errand and misses the point entirely. I realize this is a really tough time to be making life changes, but the sooner one can get into a healthful routine, the better life will be across the board. (Personally beyond guilty on the sleep one)
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ONLY WAY TO STOP IT:
Says a Prof. in Italy is To TEST EVERYBODY as the theory was proven in VU, Italy with 3,500 people not having it since they did that.
They found 8 people were asymptomatic and they can shed it during this period. Korean's are doing this also.
How one Italian town managed to stop the coronavirus in its tracks | CBC Radio
Too keep from getting it:
If you have to go out in to buildings wear a mask as the particles from aerosols emitted by people talking, coughing, sneezing can remain in the air for hours. Korean Dr's think we are crazy in NA and the EU for not wearing masks! Of course washing hands and not touching your face applies. This story shows how easy it is to get it that way.
Choir practice turns fatal. Coronavirus is to blame - Los Angeles Times
Says a Prof. in Italy is To TEST EVERYBODY as the theory was proven in VU, Italy with 3,500 people not having it since they did that.
They found 8 people were asymptomatic and they can shed it during this period. Korean's are doing this also.
How one Italian town managed to stop the coronavirus in its tracks | CBC Radio
Too keep from getting it:
If you have to go out in to buildings wear a mask as the particles from aerosols emitted by people talking, coughing, sneezing can remain in the air for hours. Korean Dr's think we are crazy in NA and the EU for not wearing masks! Of course washing hands and not touching your face applies. This story shows how easy it is to get it that way.
Choir practice turns fatal. Coronavirus is to blame - Los Angeles Times
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@rmyauk, well, it's not quite that simple that "testing is the answer" and "masks are the answer". China pretty much dictated a play book to the WHO, which was about what procedures to implement as infection escalated, i.e. different response for different stages. But your point is well taken that leaving certain response options off the table is a mistake.
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While it's out there a good/proper mask, washing your hands, and not touching your face are the only proven ways to not get it so far if one has to go out/work. Otherwise stay at home and have groceries/goods delivered is the only other way to not get it as proven.
Testing everyone "Will Nip The Bug in the Bud"! Then no worries till the next pandemic!
It's still working in Vo, Italy! Sorry I miss spelled it above in #22 for anyone googling it!
Testing everyone "Will Nip The Bug in the Bud"! Then no worries till the next pandemic!
It's still working in Vo, Italy! Sorry I miss spelled it above in #22 for anyone googling it!
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OK, let us talk “conferred immunity” then, since this is an apolitical forum topic.
Just read a rather compelling (thought provoking, even if you don't agree with it) article at WattsUpWithThat … (Unintended Consequences? Polio and COVID 19 | Watts Up With That?).
In a nutshell, it openly asks roughly, “are we shooting ourselves in the foot, an unintended consequence of over-protecting the category of people who if they catch CV19, won't statistically be harmed much more than the ordinary flu or serious head-cold?”
It points out that Science, some 50+ years back, discovered that the rise of cleanliness and markedly increased standards of personal hygiene in the late 1800s led to the rise of polio amongst a far-more-vulnerable post-childhood population. Previously, kids early in life would catch the polio virus, would dutifully get sick, but only with rarity, die; upon recovering, their infections conferred lifelong immunity to the kid.
This, in turn, gave most of humanity herd (or community) immunity against pandemic outbreaks of poliomyelitus virus. When a sufficiently high number of once-kids, now-immune-adults are walking about, they sap the potential of the deadly-in-adults virus from having much of a fertile field into which to propagate.
The net redux of the article is, that perhaps the optimal path going forward would be to cease the all-people-must-protect-themselves-totally ideal, but keep that in place for the fraction of the population quite likely to be harmed by catching CV19.
In other words, let just about everyone under 50 go merrily about their ways, go to events, go to coffee houses; there'll be a rapid rise in the CV19 cases, but so long as they protect themselves around 50+ and weakened people, and vice versa, they will develop community immunity, and that alone will go on to protect the same vulnerable members of the community in the years ahead.
I think it is worth statistically and epidemiologically exploring.
We definitely must engineer the optimal-for-civilization response to this thing.
Not just knee-jêrk things like 'ban live markets in China', which is dopey to the core. Sure, they probably ought to be restricted, or even banned for a myriad of other ostensible reasons. But such policy demands aren't really worth fighting over today. Today… we have to engineer how we “pull out of the socioeconomic nose-dive” which we're presently, incontrovertibly in.
Ya know?
⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
Just read a rather compelling (thought provoking, even if you don't agree with it) article at WattsUpWithThat … (Unintended Consequences? Polio and COVID 19 | Watts Up With That?).
In a nutshell, it openly asks roughly, “are we shooting ourselves in the foot, an unintended consequence of over-protecting the category of people who if they catch CV19, won't statistically be harmed much more than the ordinary flu or serious head-cold?”
It points out that Science, some 50+ years back, discovered that the rise of cleanliness and markedly increased standards of personal hygiene in the late 1800s led to the rise of polio amongst a far-more-vulnerable post-childhood population. Previously, kids early in life would catch the polio virus, would dutifully get sick, but only with rarity, die; upon recovering, their infections conferred lifelong immunity to the kid.
This, in turn, gave most of humanity herd (or community) immunity against pandemic outbreaks of poliomyelitus virus. When a sufficiently high number of once-kids, now-immune-adults are walking about, they sap the potential of the deadly-in-adults virus from having much of a fertile field into which to propagate.
The net redux of the article is, that perhaps the optimal path going forward would be to cease the all-people-must-protect-themselves-totally ideal, but keep that in place for the fraction of the population quite likely to be harmed by catching CV19.
In other words, let just about everyone under 50 go merrily about their ways, go to events, go to coffee houses; there'll be a rapid rise in the CV19 cases, but so long as they protect themselves around 50+ and weakened people, and vice versa, they will develop community immunity, and that alone will go on to protect the same vulnerable members of the community in the years ahead.
I think it is worth statistically and epidemiologically exploring.
We definitely must engineer the optimal-for-civilization response to this thing.
Not just knee-jêrk things like 'ban live markets in China', which is dopey to the core. Sure, they probably ought to be restricted, or even banned for a myriad of other ostensible reasons. But such policy demands aren't really worth fighting over today. Today… we have to engineer how we “pull out of the socioeconomic nose-dive” which we're presently, incontrovertibly in.
Ya know?
⋅-⋅-⋅ Just saying, ⋅-⋅-⋅
⋅-=≡ GoatGuy ✓ ≡=-⋅
Re masks:
You can still get the non throw away industrial types as I did in half mask or full faced as I found. Protecting the eyes is important so googles or a ski mask would be better than nothing. If you google there are inventive types making positive pressure hoods with pumps/filters.
You can still get the non throw away industrial types as I did in half mask or full faced as I found. Protecting the eyes is important so googles or a ski mask would be better than nothing. If you google there are inventive types making positive pressure hoods with pumps/filters.
This looks like an interesting thread - the posts relating to Vitamin D deficiency are particularly informative.
I'm just a simple soul (retired Electrical Engineer and amateur Hi-Fi fiddler) but I find perusal of the WHO and GovUK statistics raise disconcerting observations (I did stats back in the dark ages, at college).
* Covid-19/SARS-CoV-2 may cause serious health problems, potentially leading to death for people with existing underlying health problems, particularly amongst the elderly (i.e. me and my missus).
* Seasonal influenza (many strains, both old and novel) may cause serious health problems, potentially leading to death for people with existing underlying health problems, particularly amongst the elderly (i.e. me and my missus).
* SARS-CoV-2 is novel and as such there is no vaccine for it yet. Influenza is as old as the hills and there are numerous vaccines for it, apart than for the novel influenza strains.
The symptoms of both illnesses, Covid-19 and Influenza are virtually identical, ranging from mild to severe.
* So me and my missus are now at risk from two totally different viruses, both of similar potency, either one of which may kill us in more or less the same way. Thankfully, whichever virus might get us, we can only die once (or twice if we both cop it together).
* According to WHO statistics, during a typical flu season up to 500,000 people worldwide will die from influenza. In fact, GovUK official statistics reveal that, just in England and Wales alone in the 2014/15 six month flu season, 28,330 people died of influenza.
* According to the latest WHO statistics for Covid-19, between October 2019, when it apparently started in China, and today 31 March 2020 (almost a typical northern hemisphere influenza period) 39,559 deaths worldwide have so far been recorded as a result of Covid-19.
In view of the worldwide panic that is currently taking place, my conclusions are obviously invalid and I would be really grateful if someone could point out the flaws in my logic.
I'm just a simple soul (retired Electrical Engineer and amateur Hi-Fi fiddler) but I find perusal of the WHO and GovUK statistics raise disconcerting observations (I did stats back in the dark ages, at college).
* Covid-19/SARS-CoV-2 may cause serious health problems, potentially leading to death for people with existing underlying health problems, particularly amongst the elderly (i.e. me and my missus).
* Seasonal influenza (many strains, both old and novel) may cause serious health problems, potentially leading to death for people with existing underlying health problems, particularly amongst the elderly (i.e. me and my missus).
* SARS-CoV-2 is novel and as such there is no vaccine for it yet. Influenza is as old as the hills and there are numerous vaccines for it, apart than for the novel influenza strains.
The symptoms of both illnesses, Covid-19 and Influenza are virtually identical, ranging from mild to severe.
* So me and my missus are now at risk from two totally different viruses, both of similar potency, either one of which may kill us in more or less the same way. Thankfully, whichever virus might get us, we can only die once (or twice if we both cop it together).
* According to WHO statistics, during a typical flu season up to 500,000 people worldwide will die from influenza. In fact, GovUK official statistics reveal that, just in England and Wales alone in the 2014/15 six month flu season, 28,330 people died of influenza.
* According to the latest WHO statistics for Covid-19, between October 2019, when it apparently started in China, and today 31 March 2020 (almost a typical northern hemisphere influenza period) 39,559 deaths worldwide have so far been recorded as a result of Covid-19.
In view of the worldwide panic that is currently taking place, my conclusions are obviously invalid and I would be really grateful if someone could point out the flaws in my logic.
BMI is not a very good metric. I have lost 60-70 pounds in the last 3 years, my physio told me i was getting too skinny, but my BMI suggests i am still fat.
dave
Dave -- BMI has little utility on the individual level due to high variability, but has a very strong correlation at the population level.
Rudolf -- we are only at the very very beginning of what COVID-19 will do, whereas we are at the very end of what was a pretty nasty flu season. Secondly, most annual flu strains, including this one, are not as deadly because we have partial immunity (if not total) to many of the strains. Yes both are respiratory diseases and have a lot of common symptoms, even though the the various flu strains and COVID-19 have very different pathologies.
GoatGuy -- The optimal level of isolation is a moving target. The larger community of epidemiologists suggest that it's too early to start rolling back these shelter-in-place restrictions. This is due to having *too* many infected cases right now and a need to minimize how badly overwhelmed the medical system is/will be soon. We have to ride that line. Isolating the most susceptible part of the population sounds nice on paper but is impossible to do in practice (see: herd immunity failings)
Rudolf -- we are only at the very very beginning of what COVID-19 will do, whereas we are at the very end of what was a pretty nasty flu season. Secondly, most annual flu strains, including this one, are not as deadly because we have partial immunity (if not total) to many of the strains. Yes both are respiratory diseases and have a lot of common symptoms, even though the the various flu strains and COVID-19 have very different pathologies.
GoatGuy -- The optimal level of isolation is a moving target. The larger community of epidemiologists suggest that it's too early to start rolling back these shelter-in-place restrictions. This is due to having *too* many infected cases right now and a need to minimize how badly overwhelmed the medical system is/will be soon. We have to ride that line. Isolating the most susceptible part of the population sounds nice on paper but is impossible to do in practice (see: herd immunity failings)
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