The high death rate is partly false because only very ill people are now being tested for the virus and partly true because of the large number of elderly in Italy.
Here in Denmark there´s still some inconsistency 🙁 . As of yesterday 12 AM the borders are closed. On the news there was this elderly German couple really pissed of, because they weren´t able to drive across and go to some antique auction???
The government urges restaurants and bars to close, but it´s still volontary??? I went to pick up a subscription at the pharmacy for some hormon cream for my psoriasis (4 packs) but was told, there were restrictions, and I could only get one?? Which means I have to expose myself 4 times instead of one?? This I just doesn´t make sense, as I´m in the risk group, both age- and immune system wise.
If they had given you 4 packs, possibly other 3 persons would have gone to the pharmacy empty handed and exposed themselves for no reason. I think it makes perfectly sense.
"Monday, March 16 – Bizet’s Carmen
Conducted by Yannick Nézet-Séguin, starring Elīna Garanča and Roberto Alagna. Transmitted live on January 16, 2010.
Tuesday, March 17 – Puccini’s La Bohème
Conducted by Nicola Luisotti, starring Angela Gheorghiu and Ramón Vargas. Transmitted live on April 5, 2008.
Wednesday, March 18 – Verdi’s Il Trovatore
Conducted by Marco Armiliato, starring Anna Netrebko, Dolora Zajick, Yonghoon Lee, and Dmitri Hvorostovsky. Transmitted live on October 3, 2015.
Thursday, March 19 – Verdi’s La Traviata
Conducted by Yannick Nézet-Séguin, starring Diana Damrau, Juan Diego Flórez, and Quinn Kelsey. Transmitted live on December 15, 2018.
Friday, March 20 – Donizetti’s La Fille du Régiment
Conducted by Marco Armiliato, starring Natalie Dessay and Juan Diego Flórez. Transmitted live on April 26, 2008.
Saturday, March 21 – Donizetti’s Lucia di Lammermoor
Conducted by Marco Armiliato, starring Anna Netrebko, Piotr Beczała, and Mariusz Kwiecien. Transmitted live on February 7, 2009."
Then it is all worth it! I am staying in for a week!
Thanks George!
Still don't know why the death rate in Germany is so exceptionally low.
Median age in Germany is 47.1 and in Italy it is 45.5.
Median age in Germany is 47.1 and in Italy it is 45.5.
Average age of those dying in Italy is >80 years.
It is my theory that the virus has not yet reached the elderly in most other european countries that are a couple of weeks behind Italy in the course of the infection.
It is my theory that the virus has not yet reached the elderly in most other european countries that are a couple of weeks behind Italy in the course of the infection.
Not sure I entirely agree with you here. This is something, they´r wery well stocked on, and very few people use, but in a sense you´re right though. First sign on the door said: All out of face masks and hand desinfection liquids 🙂
Still confirmed cases in Germany 4585 Deaths 9 compared to France with 4481 confirmed cases and 91 deaths.
Personal hygiene probably played a big role -- they don't use handkerchiefs in a lot of the world, (or kleenex.) A lot of the world uses the "nose rocket" method of clearing their sinus passages, and spitting -- used to be a $100 fine on the NY Subways for spitting, now they allow mother-stabbers and father-rapers out without bail.
Photo from NYTimes article on the 1918 influenza pandemic:
Photo from NYTimes article on the 1918 influenza pandemic:
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Maybe the way-above the average intensive care bed number they manage?
The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe | SpringerLink
George
The variability of critical care bed numbers in Europe | SpringerLink
George
WQXR will occasionally re-play the Met broadcast of the 1970 performance of "Norma" with Richard Bonynge directing, Marilyn Horne and Joan Sutherland, Carlo Bergonzi and Cesare Siepe -- probably one of the operatic performances of the century.
They have not, as yet, cancelled the 50th Anniversary tour.
My friends in college had to report to the same draft board on Whitehall St in lower Manhattan!
Yes that's why areas where people are close are forbided, school, university : it's easier to catch in such situation then contaminate the family. It was modelised.
In the same order, I think you will see medicals not testing everyone cause it's already wordlwide phase 3 more or less (the time windows is moving only) so they will concentrate testing for medical staff every day to reduce propagation factor and people whom are ill or beded not presumed to be.
To deliver overwhelmed medical staffs, they just cleaned the school for their children only (and also to avoid at most the countamination bounce).
Reactions are very fast now all over the world
Sorry if I missed a previous post with this link, but it's worth repeating anyway, I think far more useful than johns hopkins
Coronavirus Update (Live): 163,502 Cases and 6,086 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Coronavirus Update (Live): 163,502 Cases and 6,086 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
When you look at this site and click on Cases you can see the number of cases outside China.
10 cases Jan. 10
100 cases Jan. 29
1,000 cases Feb. 18
10,000 cases March 2
100,000 cases March 17 (my estimate)
1,000,000 cases ?
between Jan 10 and Jan 29 is 7 days.
Jan 29 - Feb 18 is 20 days
Feb 18 - March 2 is 13 days
March 2 - March 17 is 15 days
I'm going to average only the last three intervals, 16 days.
That would make April 2nd 1,000,000 cases outside China if current trends continue. I'm thinking that steps being taken now will slow down the spread and we won't hit a million till much later, but if nothing is done this is where we might be heading...
These are "continuing cases" as of March 15- (The patient either got well or died.) Italy may be on a trend to exceed China. Can't read too much into the data at this juncture, and it being a Sunday you don't know how much is really contemporaneous.
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Imo, few chance Italy goes higher than China ! Your thought are based on numbers you can not check (Phase 3 : you don't check everyone anymore, but medical staff and inmates to chek the cure) ! Chineese numbers as CE are not accurate anymore (but for the dead).
China may minimise for some reasons, panic gestion, business, inside country management not the moment to check everyone but more to manage confinment and socia distancing.
China may minimise for some reasons, panic gestion, business, inside country management not the moment to check everyone but more to manage confinment and socia distancing.
I went out to dinner last night in Bristol, and the restaurant which is normally SRO was sparsely inhabited.
Went to a bar later and there were probably ten people in a bar with a capacity of 100.
The problem I see in the Americas is that we are pretty much "Tail end Charlie". We are the last Northern Hemisphere country to be infected (or at least detected infection) and will be the last in need of scarce resources. IT does not help that our CDC was late for the show to develop a test, and should have adopted the German test that was already developed and shown accurate.
Went to a bar later and there were probably ten people in a bar with a capacity of 100.
The problem I see in the Americas is that we are pretty much "Tail end Charlie". We are the last Northern Hemisphere country to be infected (or at least detected infection) and will be the last in need of scarce resources. IT does not help that our CDC was late for the show to develop a test, and should have adopted the German test that was already developed and shown accurate.
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