I'm sorry that only applies when the virus is "unchecked" eg. circulating undetected. When left to grow unchecked it is estimated that the number of infected individuals will double every 5 days. This combined with the fact that it takes about 3 weeks, on average, from initial infection to death gives you the 1000 fold factor.
But once containment measures are enacted, like in China and Italy, the number of infected individuals will no longer double every 5 days. So this rough rule of thumb no longer applies. This 1000 fold estimate can be used to determine the number of infected people in the Iran or Italy when it was circulating undetected and unchecked or any place where there are deaths but no containment measures.
So short answer because of the containment measures in place in China, S. Korea, Japan etc. the 1000 fold factor does not apply and the total infected is much lower than 3.5 million.
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I thought that was HIV.
I lost a lot of friends to HIV -- one before it was in the public domain.
I love watching the statistics roll out, but routinely get schooled by my wife who taught biostatistics. She knew I was on one or the other tail of the distribution.
btw, shingles vaccine is highly worth getting if you can find a pharmacy which has it.
A lot of doctor's offices offer it around here. I was surprised when my oncologist suggested I get a shingles shot despite already having had it, apparently it can happen again. So on my list..
I got a flu shot this season for the first time in 30 years and can report no side effects of any sort at all.
I got a flu shot this season for the first time in 30 years and can report no side effects of any sort at all.
Pneumonia vax is a two stage process.
My mom (age 96) in assisted living facility which has everyone vaccinated and up to date. She doesn't go on any outings because the "old people are too slow".
My mom (age 96) in assisted living facility which has everyone vaccinated and up to date. She doesn't go on any outings because the "old people are too slow".
I have a question.
If you have gloves or some other form of protection and you use them outside, say you go to the market...talk to many different venders and exchange cash with different people.
Now you're at home, you've taken off your gloves but you don't want to toss them because you've only got a few. You're worried there might be virions on the gloves. Can you toss them in the freezer overnight? Virus's are sensitive to temperature...would that be enough to inactivate them? Would the gloves be sterile?
Thanks,
Glenn
If you have gloves or some other form of protection and you use them outside, say you go to the market...talk to many different venders and exchange cash with different people.
Now you're at home, you've taken off your gloves but you don't want to toss them because you've only got a few. You're worried there might be virions on the gloves. Can you toss them in the freezer overnight? Virus's are sensitive to temperature...would that be enough to inactivate them? Would the gloves be sterile?
Thanks,
Glenn
The 'freezer' question came up on a TV Q&A's last night regarding food/containers etc and a comment was made by Chris Smith (as I recall),
Chris Smith | People | Naked Scientists
was that 'we actually store viruses in the freezer' to preserve them......
Chris Smith | People | Naked Scientists
was that 'we actually store viruses in the freezer' to preserve them......
For UK residents, you can get Shingles vaccine on the NHS - just talk to your local GP.
I can’t recall if I had Chickenpox as a kid (mumps and measles yes) so seeing as I am 63, might be a good idea. It’s not a nice disease from what I’ve heard and plenty of side and long term effects etc.
Re Corvid- 19, many supermarkets in the UK are out of toilet paper. I’m trying to understand why that’s on the list of things folk want to stockpile. Maybe another Facebook rumor. Problem is if a few people do it, everyone does it.
Might have to consider getting one of those butt washers fitted - take me back to my days in Japan- always squeaky clean 😀
I can’t recall if I had Chickenpox as a kid (mumps and measles yes) so seeing as I am 63, might be a good idea. It’s not a nice disease from what I’ve heard and plenty of side and long term effects etc.
Re Corvid- 19, many supermarkets in the UK are out of toilet paper. I’m trying to understand why that’s on the list of things folk want to stockpile. Maybe another Facebook rumor. Problem is if a few people do it, everyone does it.
Might have to consider getting one of those butt washers fitted - take me back to my days in Japan- always squeaky clean 😀
You could wash your hands with the gloves on, then take 'm off, no?
Would that be sufficient?
Jan
That's too sensible for me to thought of myself!
That's perfect, thankyou.
Freezing would have probably weaken the gloves, shortening their lifespan...
That's perfect, thankyou.
Freezing would have probably weaken the gloves, shortening their lifespan...
I think you want to do the reverse and heat them to above this virus' point of death. (maybe a bit > 60°C?) Or maybe just wash them thoroughly with soap and hot water before removing them?
Neck ties are a source of incredible bacteria since few people think of cleaning them like normal dry cleaning procedures of shirts etc.
I believe Europe awhile back mentioned doctors no longer wear them at work for this reason but unsure of when they imposed this or how rigidly enforced.
Regards
David
I believe Europe awhile back mentioned doctors no longer wear them at work for this reason but unsure of when they imposed this or how rigidly enforced.
Regards
David
I'm sure that would work but I'm not sure what I'd use to get above 60C but not enough to melt the gloves. I've got an oven, microwave and this heater blower thing that I use for SMD builds.
Soap and water would probably be the best bet.
Here's a different way of looking at infections.
I took the number of active cases (not total cases, so resolved cases are not included) and divided it by population then multiplied by a million. So the number represents the number of active cases per million people in the country.
S. Korea 139
Italy 106
Iran 50
China 14
Norway 32
Sweden 20
Hong Kong 7
Germany 12
USA 1
Canada 1
Of course some countries test much more than others and that would skew the results.
We don't vaccinate for chickenpox here because it's probably not worth doing?
Chickenpox
- NHS
My youngest daughter had a severe case of chickenpox aged about 3 years old (1995/6) and was prescribed Zovirax, it cleared up after a couple of days. It was dramatic how well the Zovirax worked so quickly. She went on to have shingles aged about 8.
Toilet paper shortage is a panic buy phenomenon. It happened here in Sydney last week, news of that probably caused panic in the UK. From what I understand, it started in HK and Japan, where people were speculating that toilet paper would run out because it was all made in china. stock piling ensued and it ran out.
A few days later the same thing happened in Sydney. The ironic thing is that most of the toilet paper sold in Australia is made in Australia 😉
We also had shortages of Rice, Flour and Pasta. Painkillers also apparently were snapped up. Apparently that is because some information on what you should buy to be prepared included Rice, Flour and Pasta.
The supermarkets have now introduced limits per transaction on certain goods.
Tony.
A few days later the same thing happened in Sydney. The ironic thing is that most of the toilet paper sold in Australia is made in Australia 😉
We also had shortages of Rice, Flour and Pasta. Painkillers also apparently were snapped up. Apparently that is because some information on what you should buy to be prepared included Rice, Flour and Pasta.
The supermarkets have now introduced limits per transaction on certain goods.
Tony.
There are runs on toilet paper and hand sanitizer here currently, but it depends on where you go, some places are out, others are not. (Our toilet paper is made here in the U.S. or Canada, and we usually order bamboo based TP in bulk.)
My wife informed me today that we always have 2 - 3 weeks of staples on hand so we are OK in the event of a quarantine order. She buys mostly based on price so stocks up when something is on sale at the right [lowest local] price - very efficient.
My wife informed me today that we always have 2 - 3 weeks of staples on hand so we are OK in the event of a quarantine order. She buys mostly based on price so stocks up when something is on sale at the right [lowest local] price - very efficient.
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