A Doom and Gloom thread.
My take as an industrial automation engineer is that (1) there is no menial job that can not ultimately be replaced by a robot, and (2) self driving vehicles will displace commercial drivers within the foreseeable future (say, 20 years).
The justification in many cases is "Safety" and "elimination of "menial work", with the added response that people can be retrained for other "support" jobs. However the number of displaced jobs is usually orders of magnitude greater than the new "support" jobs.
The net result of these and other automation changes will ultimately be a society in which most people will be unemployable.
We are creating a technological nightmare.
My take as an industrial automation engineer is that (1) there is no menial job that can not ultimately be replaced by a robot, and (2) self driving vehicles will displace commercial drivers within the foreseeable future (say, 20 years).
The justification in many cases is "Safety" and "elimination of "menial work", with the added response that people can be retrained for other "support" jobs. However the number of displaced jobs is usually orders of magnitude greater than the new "support" jobs.
The net result of these and other automation changes will ultimately be a society in which most people will be unemployable.
We are creating a technological nightmare.
They said that about the Jacquard loom and the luddites started smashing them. However we seem to have done OK. These disruptions happen and we work our way around them.
People thought the same when the industrial revolution struck and looks like the humanity dealt with it more or less successfully. People get used to everything and I think robots and self-driving vehicles will be very challenging but we will find a way. And if not then it's gonna be the end of the world as we know it (Kurt Vonnegut's scenario from The Sirens of Titan seems true to life)
The Jacquard loom effected a small segment of society and the related jobs.
I see automation as a widespread disruptive technology, potentially covering all aspects of manufacturing, farming, and all human endeavor.
I see automation as a widespread disruptive technology, potentially covering all aspects of manufacturing, farming, and all human endeavor.
Farming? You studied the history of farming in the last 50 years. There has been a huge disruption in that, with the number of people required to work the land dropping 1-2 orders of magnitude.
It's funny but sci-fi writers have been talking about the increased leisure generation for decades now, but we seem to be working as hard or harder than ever before. The paradigm changes with each disruption.
It's funny but sci-fi writers have been talking about the increased leisure generation for decades now, but we seem to be working as hard or harder than ever before. The paradigm changes with each disruption.
I wonder how close they are to making a driverless car which can read a handwritten warning or diversion sign, or react appropriately when someone at the side of the road waves furiously at it (perhaps to tell the absent driver of a hazard just around the next bend?).
We might worry, but that seems just a cultural abnormality, most chinese are robots already.
https://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=...a.html&usg=AFQjCNFWvh7itDc0eHSjfyBM5Epz3XrS9Q
https://www.google.nl/url?sa=t&rct=...a.html&usg=AFQjCNFWvh7itDc0eHSjfyBM5Epz3XrS9Q
billshurv, I understand the farming issues but see it continuing at an accelerated pace of automation.
Five years ago migrants used to move through this area in the late summer to pick tomatoes and peppers.
I've not seen them in numbers of the past in the last two years. Automated picking machines are displacing them.
Five years ago migrants used to move through this area in the late summer to pick tomatoes and peppers.
I've not seen them in numbers of the past in the last two years. Automated picking machines are displacing them.
Obviously fully automated driving is a few years off but it's in its infancy.
Yes, autonomous systems can detect people and can actually tell what the people are doing, waving at the car etc. There are prototype and development systems that can, pretty much, do city centre driving without a problem. It just isn't mainstream yet.
And to the diversion signs etc? Of course the vehicle will know/notice. Sat navs already know about these things ahead of time. So will the car. And even if not perfect, as of today, things will change by the time it's needed.
Yeah robots are going to replace humans in lots of menial jobs. I cannot see this as anything but a good thing.
The trouble with society these days is our greed and dependence on money/wealth as a driving force for making life go on. It's a massive hindrance.
We can't do this because there isn't enough money, we can't do that quickly enough because we're not being given enough funding by the government etc. Do we have the planetary resources though. Of course we do. So just make it happen.
Menial jobs should be handled by robots. Humans should do things that interest them and that could also be productive for society. That could just be cultivating peace of mind and overall happiness, or learning about what interests them.
People design/build and 'do' because it's interesting. Even if money wasn't a thing, we'd still have plenty of engineers, researchers, doctors etc, wanting to 'do' because they have no choice but to 'do'. It's part of who they are. Much like musicians writing music and artists painting pictures.
Lots of robots, more people painting pictures and less focus on money. Yes please. People living for living, rather than living for the grind.
Yes, autonomous systems can detect people and can actually tell what the people are doing, waving at the car etc. There are prototype and development systems that can, pretty much, do city centre driving without a problem. It just isn't mainstream yet.
And to the diversion signs etc? Of course the vehicle will know/notice. Sat navs already know about these things ahead of time. So will the car. And even if not perfect, as of today, things will change by the time it's needed.
Yeah robots are going to replace humans in lots of menial jobs. I cannot see this as anything but a good thing.
The trouble with society these days is our greed and dependence on money/wealth as a driving force for making life go on. It's a massive hindrance.
We can't do this because there isn't enough money, we can't do that quickly enough because we're not being given enough funding by the government etc. Do we have the planetary resources though. Of course we do. So just make it happen.
Menial jobs should be handled by robots. Humans should do things that interest them and that could also be productive for society. That could just be cultivating peace of mind and overall happiness, or learning about what interests them.
People design/build and 'do' because it's interesting. Even if money wasn't a thing, we'd still have plenty of engineers, researchers, doctors etc, wanting to 'do' because they have no choice but to 'do'. It's part of who they are. Much like musicians writing music and artists painting pictures.
Lots of robots, more people painting pictures and less focus on money. Yes please. People living for living, rather than living for the grind.
+1
Money is not a good measure of value. Something like respect is more useful. Corprations adding respect for the environment, respect of workers etc, instead of a dash for cash each quarter is a good direction.
dave
What a wonderful utopian picture you paint. Who do you propose is in charge of the distribution of the wealth generated by the robots, or do we not have money anymore? The robots just do stuff that needs to be done and everything is free?
I have been sharing the road with driverless cars now for 30 years. They started driving in a park near where I used to live. At one time the snow was so heavy I couldn't see the road, the robot did just fine.
They now go in much heavier traffic and are so common I forget about them until a visitor traveling with me gets excited.
Next step is the divide between the wealthy and the minimum income group. Expect at some point for governments to provide a minimum income, as the economics will make it cheaper than jailing all the impoverished unemployed.
They now go in much heavier traffic and are so common I forget about them until a visitor traveling with me gets excited.
Next step is the divide between the wealthy and the minimum income group. Expect at some point for governments to provide a minimum income, as the economics will make it cheaper than jailing all the impoverished unemployed.
I don't use satnav so I didn't know it had become so sophisticated. I can put a sign by the road and satnavs will already know ahead of time that I am about to do it? Very impressive!5th element said:
For some people the choice will be eating and watching daytime TV until they get heart failure or diabetes. Everyone else will then have to pay for their health care. In a world run by robots would it be necessary to insist that all humans have a healthy hobby and eat sensibly? 'Failure to eat greens' could be a criminal offence? Others, of course, will prefer to get their exercise by burgling houses etc.
Governments do not create wealth, they consume it. For the government to provide a minimum income, they have to tax some entity in order to redistribute the wealth.
If one taxes robots at a rate sufficient to redistribute the tax as a minimum sustainability income, there is no incentive for manufacturers to use the robots in the first place. And, there is no tax on robots in any country I am aware of to date. I just don't see this happening.
I do see Kiosks being rolled out in the USA where the minimum wage has been rolled up as a populous response in the last election (California and Colorado), with a net result of more people losing their minimum wage jobs.
I just don't see a Utopian world evolving from a Capitalist society. There are too many powerful companies buying off the government.
If one taxes robots at a rate sufficient to redistribute the tax as a minimum sustainability income, there is no incentive for manufacturers to use the robots in the first place. And, there is no tax on robots in any country I am aware of to date. I just don't see this happening.
I do see Kiosks being rolled out in the USA where the minimum wage has been rolled up as a populous response in the last election (California and Colorado), with a net result of more people losing their minimum wage jobs.
I just don't see a Utopian world evolving from a Capitalist society. There are too many powerful companies buying off the government.
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