Are the Chinese going to take over ?

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I find it fascinating that China is able to marry a communist society to a capitalist economy. I don't think anybody thought that it was possible even a decade ago. But they seem to pull it off and doing quite well.

I am not. Capitalism is good for productivity, while communism is good for stealing, with government approval, products, designs, patents. And receiving all kind of subsidies to unfairly compete on the global markets.

Case in point, look at the courier shipping rates to/from China. 30lbs DHL shipping from China to Canada costs $60, same shipping from Canada to China costs over $500. 30lbs FedEx shipping from Texas/Dallas area to Canada costs $400.

25 years ago, I was looking to purchasing a large quantity of CDROM units. Money wise, the best offer I got was from a Chinese manufacturer, for $3 a pop. Somebody please explain how a CDROM (please note this is not just a few chips thrown in a plastic case, it has more or less precision mechanics, laser, motor, etc...) can be sold for this price. Hint, the units were clones of a US reputable model, so bad they were not even able to safely read the re-writable CDs of the time.
 
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China is just the replacement for Taiwan, which was the replacement for Japan. India tried and failed to be the cheap labor supplier.

We are running out of cheap labor. Eventually the Chinese economy will catch up with their ambition and there will be a more balanced cost of labor shifting manufacturing again.

Cheap foreign manufacturing has always been a dynamic system and will continue to be so.

Great Britain saw it's peak of world dominance in the early 1900s. The USA in the late 1900s.

Life goes on.
 
Case in point, look at the courier shipping rates to/from China. 30lbs DHL shipping from China to Canada costs $60, same shipping from Canada to China costs over $500. 30lbs FedEx shipping from Texas/Dallas area to Canada costs $400.

Perhaps China ships considerably more to Canada, than Canada does (or could ever do) to China, and thereby benefits from that.
 
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China is just the replacement for Taiwan, which was the replacement for Japan. India tried and failed to be the cheap labor supplier.

We are running out of cheap labor. Eventually the Chinese economy will catch up with their ambition and there will be a more balanced cost of labor shifting manufacturing again.

Cheap foreign manufacturing has always been a dynamic system and will continue to be so.

Great Britain saw it's peak of world dominance in the early 1900s. The USA in the late 1900s.

Life goes on.

Yep!

Jan
 
Isn't that a matter of volume discounts and speed of delivery? Or are you implying that the Chinese government subsidizes DHL for 80%??

Yes I do, but definitely not 80%. I am sure this is a combination of DHL rip off prices in NA ("because they can")*) and a very low profit margin for business in China, which was the price of entering the market. Otherwise, the Chinese govt is known for subsidizing merchandise transportation, which would otherwise eat up the low manufacturing prices.

You are of course aware you can't just start a profitable business in China, that business has to be approved by the govt. and one common requirement is to give up the intellectual properties embedded in your product. If you don't, they'll rip it off anyway (if the business is worth, having a large added value). To protect your interests, one alternative is to bribe the whole Chinese chain of command, and then you could get some temporary protection.

*) I was once quoted $900 for FedEx overnight shipping of a 120lbs (not even oversized) package from the LA area to Toronto. I'd rather buy a one way ticket from LA to Toronto and ask the package to be strapped in a chair in Economy Class, and save the balance for a fancy dinner for two.
 
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I read somewhere China falls under some kind of third world status so the shipping is cheap. Its some kind of int'l aggreement so third world countries can compete on the world market.
Another observation: at work there is a library with IEEE issues from way back. I find it interesting most articles up till a little past 2000 are dominated by american and a few european researchers. The newer ones, from at least 5-10years ago and to the latest, are dominated by chinese researchers. So while westerners are busy gaming and twirking, a lot of chinese youth are studying and getting smart. So unless other societies manage to get their new generations interested in science, the chinese are taking over and by a wide margin. Soon they will invent and others copy.
 
The flaw is in the concept of 'the chinese' and 'the west' - both are descriptions what will become outdated in the future. The nation state / empire will have had it's day too. We're all far too interconnected now and people are for the most part, not willing to run their businesses inside borders. The genie is out of the bottle.
 
I have ordered several items from China that was under $3 which included free shipping.
Sending a small padded envelope weighing 34 grams via Canada Post from Montreal to Texas costs over $8, tracking and insurance is extra.

That's because Canada Post is paying the difference under some old rules. That'll eventually change - the US is already talking about it.
 
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Many people don't know that up until ~1750 China and India were the two largest economies in the world, and accounted for over 50% of global GDP. India was actually the larger of the two economies for much of the previous 1500 years. There was a vibrant trade between the two countries on agricultural goods, manufactured products like pottery, metalwork, military equipment and so forth, with a lot of this trade taking place via sea from China's eastern ports to India.


After the West industrialized, India and China's share of global GDP quickly dropped off and they accounted for only a few % of global GDP. In 1970, the US accounted for 25% despite only having 6% of the world's population.


I first went to China on business in 2002 and then lived there for nearly a year in 2015. The changes in just 12 years or so were astounding - Shenzhen, Shanghai and a lot of other cities like Xiamen, Chengdu etc.


For many Chinese people, they don't see themselves as a 'newly arrived' global economic power, but just a return to how things were for nearly 2000 years before the Industrial Revolution - they were #1 or #2 and they will just be #1 or #2 again.


If you are interested in economics, and economic history, there is a fantastic book written by a bunch of Dutch academics (edited by Jan Luiten) that explains why the Industrial Revolution happened in north west Europe (specifically England and the Netherlands) and not anywhere else. The underlying reasons are quite complex, and go all the way back to 950 AD.

The Long Road to the Industrial Revolution: The European economy in a global perspective, 1000-1800 (Global Economic History Series, 1) | ZODML

Having lived and worked over there, I don't buy some of the comments I see here. The competition in China is the most intense you will find anywhere. They survive on margins that would bankrupt Western companies and the big focus with Chinese companies is SIZE before profit. Re the DHL thing, it depends upon the supplier. Some suppliers have tried to charge me outrageous shipping from China, and others are very reasonable.

Anyway, fantastic place for PCB's and contract manufacturing!
 
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I read somewhere China falls under some kind of third world status so the shipping is cheap. Its some kind of int'l aggreement so third world countries can compete on the world market.
Another observation: at work there is a library with IEEE issues from way back. I find it interesting most articles up till a little past 2000 are dominated by american and a few european researchers. The newer ones, from at least 5-10years ago and to the latest, are dominated by chinese researchers. So while westerners are busy gaming and twirking, a lot of chinese youth are studying and getting smart. So unless other societies manage to get their new generations interested in science, the chinese are taking over and by a wide margin. Soon they will invent and others copy.

Maybe those whom were publishing good information decided to keep it to themselves!
 
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