You must be pretty old:
"In all things audio, the ear is the final arbiter."
Harry Olson
dave
When I was young we didn't have shoes, our feet were exposed to the air.
Now they have shoes called Air.
Yup, we've come a long way.
Now they have shoes called Air.
Yup, we've come a long way.
When I was young there were 3.5 billion persons in the world and we got our drinking water from a tap.
Now there are close to 7 billion persons and we get our drinking water from a bottle that takes 5 bottles of water and 1/3 of a bottle of crude oil to produce.
Yup, we've come a long way.
Now there are close to 7 billion persons and we get our drinking water from a bottle that takes 5 bottles of water and 1/3 of a bottle of crude oil to produce.
Yup, we've come a long way.
When I was young we got our light from something innocuous called an incandescent bulb. You could get burned or cut but the threat was relatively minor.
Now we get it from a CFL that contains mercury, a neurotoxin and one of the more harmful things on the planet, causing health conditions like autism, memory problems, infertility, depression, thyroid disorders, alzheimer's, adrenal disorders, anxiety, Parkinson’s and MS.
Yup, we've come a long way.
Now we get it from a CFL that contains mercury, a neurotoxin and one of the more harmful things on the planet, causing health conditions like autism, memory problems, infertility, depression, thyroid disorders, alzheimer's, adrenal disorders, anxiety, Parkinson’s and MS.
Yup, we've come a long way.
When I was kid you listened to music through a stereo. It had a power button, volume, bass, treble, balance and selector switches.
Now you have a home theatre receiver which requires a 15 year old kid to set it up for you and a degree in electronics to operate it.
Yup, we've come a long way.
Now you have a home theatre receiver which requires a 15 year old kid to set it up for you and a degree in electronics to operate it.
Yup, we've come a long way.
Well before my time they had underfloor heating. Nowadays in winter when I go into Starbucks I get blasted from air conditioned hot air from above. Guess we've gone backwards more than 2,000 years?
Hey - do you have ANY idea of how long it took to pound one of those things out!!!!
Here we are, I've read this book and several others by the author, it's quite interesting:
The Singularity Is Near - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The author Ray Kurzweil is the subject of a documentary released this year (available on Netflix and DVD) "Transcendent Man." I must admit I found it a little boring, probably because I already knew what to expect after seeing so many clips of him, including the 3-hour interview on BookTV (streamable online at the BookTV site) made shortly after the book "The Singularity Is Near" was published.
Anyway, I find these two statements are quite interesting, and certainly by Kurzweil's claims they are along the same exponential curve that brought us all the changes the OP listed. These are statements I recall Kurzweil saying in recent interviews, but they jibe pretty well with the Wikipedia article that sums up the book:
In 2025 $1000 will buy a computer that has the same power and intelligence as a human brain.
In 2045 $1000 will buy a computer that has the same power and intelligence as ALL human brains.
The Singularity Is Near - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The author Ray Kurzweil is the subject of a documentary released this year (available on Netflix and DVD) "Transcendent Man." I must admit I found it a little boring, probably because I already knew what to expect after seeing so many clips of him, including the 3-hour interview on BookTV (streamable online at the BookTV site) made shortly after the book "The Singularity Is Near" was published.
Anyway, I find these two statements are quite interesting, and certainly by Kurzweil's claims they are along the same exponential curve that brought us all the changes the OP listed. These are statements I recall Kurzweil saying in recent interviews, but they jibe pretty well with the Wikipedia article that sums up the book:
In 2025 $1000 will buy a computer that has the same power and intelligence as a human brain.
In 2045 $1000 will buy a computer that has the same power and intelligence as ALL human brains.
Fifty years ago you could buy a coffee percolator for under five dollars.
Now you can buy coffee in a styrofoam cup and paper insulating sleeve including cream, sugar and various frou-frou flavorings for under five dollars.
Now you can buy coffee in a styrofoam cup and paper insulating sleeve including cream, sugar and various frou-frou flavorings for under five dollars.
A 1968 Mustang GT list was $2368. A 2012 Mustang GT list is $33,600... The 2012 model may have a 3-5 times total mileage life expectancy, but list price is 14 times higher.
Most any high school graduate with a half year of auto shop could work on a 1968 Mustang. It's doubtful they could do much more than change the oil on a 2012 model.
A flying car is finally sort of a reality. FAA granted flight status to one folding wing model. Flying the kids to school still isn't really an option.
Doc
Most any high school graduate with a half year of auto shop could work on a 1968 Mustang. It's doubtful they could do much more than change the oil on a 2012 model.
A flying car is finally sort of a reality. FAA granted flight status to one folding wing model. Flying the kids to school still isn't really an option.
Doc
I'll fly with a bunch of little robot birds carrying me, just like the Twitter Fail Whale.
AeroVironment, Inc. (AV) : Nano Air Vehicle (NAV)
AeroVironment, Inc. (AV) : Nano Air Vehicle (NAV)
I recommend a steady drip feed of Dreyfus as antidote to the excessive hype of Kurzweil.
What Computers Can't Do - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
If you adjust for inflation, a 2012 Mustang costs about twice as much as a 1968 model.
Are the technological advances worth twice as much?
I recall reading that a long time ago, but don't recall much of the gist (or perhaps I never got it - my memory of that book is hazy). The article brings some things back, but I may well have to reread it.
I very well recall Weizenbaum's "Computer Power and Human Reason" which admittedly had an emotional/snetimental argument against strong AI. Interesting in the article that he was the only one who would have lunch with Dreyfus.
But the chess prediction was ONLY three decades early. I recall circa 1986 predicting a computer chess champ, before hearing of Kurzweil's predictions. The people on the BBS (I don't even recall which one other than it was local to Atlanta) thought I was full of it, but it was clear to me that computer chess ratings were going up roughly linearly, and beating many lesser players even though "we" don't know how any person plays chess.
Like so many engineering (or perhaps it's better called scientific, as it's attempting to do new things we don't yet know how to do) endeavors, AI has been taking substantially longer than predicted. The claim that computers will never beat a chess champion finally fell in the 1990's and likewise I suspect other claims of AI detractors are, um, in Jeopardy.
As a future technology that's nearly universally useful to humankind, I'd bet against commercial fusion power before I bet against strong AI. They have both certainly taken longer than predicted to fully bear fruit.
Here's one for your crystal ball gazing skills. In which decade will a computer actively decline interaction with a human?
Quite a difference between living in the past and simply acknowledging how we got here.
One of my favorite quotes is from Mark Twain; "When I was nineteen I thought my old man was the dumbest SOB on the planet. When I got to be twenty-one I was amazed at just how much that man had learned in only two years!"
Doc
- Status
- Not open for further replies.