FYI
From a man who holds 4 Degrees from MIT
How to Fight Coronavirus (Without Causing a Global Depression)
Dut to the other threads, moderators please close this. No comments please.
From a man who holds 4 Degrees from MIT
How to Fight Coronavirus (Without Causing a Global Depression)
Dut to the other threads, moderators please close this. No comments please.
To be absolutely clear: this is exactly what we DON'T want to happen. We want push-back and well-founded criticism, especially in an opinion piece with wild extrapolation from very incomplete data. Doubly coming from an ostensible expert in a different field who is lacking local domain expertise (that's Dunning-Kruger for you).
I'm going to ignore the other arguments folks are making based on the publication source and the author's (heavy) ideological bent and look at this more at face value:
1.) It doesn't help that his explanation for COVID-19 flies directly in the face of scientific consensus.
2.) It doesn't help that there is no robust epidemiological study going on with careful bounding from historic figures (which themselves are noisy).
3.) This is all "gut" evaluations, with no data.
4.) The article pumps his qualifications rather than content. That's a gigantic red flag of logical fallacy.
I can go out and write a piece with all the letters behind my name and spin my background to sound like I should have a clue and have a similar weight of argument for whatever I choose to write about how we should handle the flying trapeze of economic mobility vs physical distancing/transmission reduction. My article would be crap, as is this one.
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I normally try to refrain from commenting on this stuff, but Covid-19 is too important and dangerous.
I completely agree with Daniel on this. There is so much stuff flying around on the 'net right now - everyone has suddenly become both a virologist AND an epidemiologist. Quite a conspiracy these people detected, unifying all these wildly diverse leaders worldwide, even infecting some of them for plausible deniability! Most of this stuff is morally repugnant when you think about it, as well as illogical - the intent seems to be mostly to spread FUD.
We know people already who have died of this who we will miss dearly. Keep safe everyone, resist the noise, stay home as much as possible.
I completely agree with Daniel on this. There is so much stuff flying around on the 'net right now - everyone has suddenly become both a virologist AND an epidemiologist. Quite a conspiracy these people detected, unifying all these wildly diverse leaders worldwide, even infecting some of them for plausible deniability! Most of this stuff is morally repugnant when you think about it, as well as illogical - the intent seems to be mostly to spread FUD.
We know people already who have died of this who we will miss dearly. Keep safe everyone, resist the noise, stay home as much as possible.
I tried very hard to stay away from the political end, and go off the abject lack of substance, regardless the ideology. Not sure if I succeeded. I hope that I'd be equally incisive with crap from a different mindset/world view.
@Bill -- didn't need a deep read, I could have pulled another dozen things I'm sure with a legitimate go of it. These were extremely low hanging fruit.
John Ioannidis was the head author of a great PLOSOne article about why most scientific studies are false. (Worth a read as it sharpens ones mind to what is likely dead wrong in general) He's written an editorial about our response to COVID-19, which highlights huge decisions being made bereft of data. I don't necessarily agree with his conclusions, but his point to the absence of data is poignant.
@geotone -- Thank you, that's my perspective as well. This stuff is too important and dangerous to run our mouth on without even an attempt at legitimacy or rigor.
It is concerning. Confession: I haven't looked at the UCL (I think?) analysis in specific and how its trends look different to other research groups. There's going to be a lot of dither in implementation, but R0, the infection rate, is perhaps the biggest driver I've found, and frankly what all these distancing efforts are attempting to modulate. (I'm a gross amateur here, let's be honest)
Different groups getting similar responses either means it's a local optimum or they're all caught by a similar trap/presumption. Let's hope it's the former.
Different groups getting similar responses either means it's a local optimum or they're all caught by a similar trap/presumption. Let's hope it's the former.
I could have posted this,
potatoe soup covid recovery - Google Search
But someone would have whined and cried about potatoes.
Everyone sit back and watch your walls change color.
I originally posted because of the Vitamin information.
MODERATORS, please close this thread.
potatoe soup covid recovery - Google Search
But someone would have whined and cried about potatoes.
Everyone sit back and watch your walls change color.
I originally posted because of the Vitamin information.
MODERATORS, please close this thread.
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Food thread is probably the best thread around, don't sully it. We're having chicken potato soup tonight and I'm quite well looking forward to it.
Your presented article is highly contentious (and that's me being kind), and serves as fine example of the present time where every unqualified and un-examined opinion pretends to have weight. The responses you got were not purely to be argumentative and contrarian. The idea/presumption that you could plop it down as a drive-by and not have any sort of response is what we shouldn't do. Not only does it set a wholly wrong precedent for how discourse should happen, but also puts the moderation in a position of giving your post tacit approval.
The more you desire this thread closed, the more important it remain open. Actually, I hope it gives you pause that you would make such a request as opposed to welcoming responses, being challenged, and learning from the process. Thoughtful and considered conflict is what we need.
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@DPH,
while it was already mentioned that the group admission is not that easy, without fast screening of the population (exception would be absolute quarantine for 2 or 3 weeks as guidance), I remember reports that overreaction of the immune system was often a severe factor in china/wuhan.
And of course, IMO the better ones own immune system works the better the chances to cope with viruses of this kind.
But as you've said, who could suggest at large scale such an attempt without having any scientific evidence.
Otoh boosting the immune system could be worth a test in a RCT as no other remedy is available.
while it was already mentioned that the group admission is not that easy, without fast screening of the population (exception would be absolute quarantine for 2 or 3 weeks as guidance), I remember reports that overreaction of the immune system was often a severe factor in china/wuhan.
And of course, IMO the better ones own immune system works the better the chances to cope with viruses of this kind.
But as you've said, who could suggest at large scale such an attempt without having any scientific evidence.
Otoh boosting the immune system could be worth a test in a RCT as no other remedy is available.
They (the FDA) have approved serum transfers from recovered COVID-19 patients to the sickest here in the US. Not sure the picture in Europe/world, but that's the closest thing we have, in the immediate moment, to an immune boost. It has precedence historically -- definitely not a RCT and definitely not a crossover trial, but everyone will certainly be looking at efficacy of the intervention.
We absolutely have to have a good antibody test, but any search for "COVID 19 antibody ROC positive predictive value AUC" has very few links and one redacted paper that didn't even really hit the antibody. So lots of antibody tests touted as ready in days in the media, none providing meat yet, which is not surprising because it's a hard problem.
All eyes are on China/Japan/South Korea/Taiwan/Singapore for what happens bounce-back wise when they start relaxing their physical distancing regimes. For us in Europe and North America, it's buckle down time and reap what we've sown until we have a better grasp on the disease.
We absolutely have to have a good antibody test, but any search for "COVID 19 antibody ROC positive predictive value AUC" has very few links and one redacted paper that didn't even really hit the antibody. So lots of antibody tests touted as ready in days in the media, none providing meat yet, which is not surprising because it's a hard problem.
All eyes are on China/Japan/South Korea/Taiwan/Singapore for what happens bounce-back wise when they start relaxing their physical distancing regimes. For us in Europe and North America, it's buckle down time and reap what we've sown until we have a better grasp on the disease.
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