The worrying thing is that there are now many cases appearing which are not epidemiologically linked ie cases of people who get Covid 19 who have not been to China or had any contact with people who have been there and cases which progress rapidly ie go from barely showing symptoms to hospitalization in a matter of hours.
My guess right now is that it can not be stopped, merely that the spread might be slowed down a little bit. In South Korea the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled overnight and in China infection has not peaked yet.
YouTube
My guess right now is that it can not be stopped, merely that the spread might be slowed down a little bit. In South Korea the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled overnight and in China infection has not peaked yet.
YouTube
China does look like it has peaked. Rational content found below...
Coronavirus Update (Live): 78,866 Cases and 2,464 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Political comment removed. Please read the rules.Just saying to give a better view , I've dealt with the business side of PLA going back to 1980s, have observed:
#1 They honor all contracts to the letter irrespective of geopolitical conditions.
#2 They expect same in return.
#3 If you are a fool they will surely take advantage. Ie IP
#4 They severely punish anyone internally committing embezzlement or taking bribes. Fraud not so much because a fool is on the other end.
#5 They will favor you or your company if any successful prior business history.
#6 The PLA run everything in China.
So the PLA is ultimately publishing those reports and probably are accurate within the bounds of error.
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#1 They honor all contracts to the letter irrespective of geopolitical conditions.
#2 They expect same in return.
#3 If you are a fool they will surely take advantage. Ie IP
#4 They severely punish anyone internally committing embezzlement or taking bribes. Fraud not so much because a fool is on the other end.
#5 They will favor you or your company if any successful prior business history.
#6 The PLA run everything in China.
So the PLA is ultimately publishing those reports and probably are accurate within the bounds of error.
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Some of the numbers out of China represent a saturation of their ability to test and process samples. Priority is given to people with travel history to Wuhan. It's just not possible to test all the people who would need to be tested in order to give us accurate results. But Wuhan has definitely peaked and China itself will peak a month or two after Wuhan.
Someone had wondered if we can trust the numbers from China. I don't think they can find and report all the cases in their country because some 80% of the people with the virus are only mildly ill or even asymptomatic. But the reproductive rate and morbidity numbers match those found outside China...
Unchecked the virus increases at about 10% per day or doubles every 7 days.
So when we see that Iran has 8 deaths we can assume at 2% morbidity rate would mean that there are about 400 infected with the virus in Iran. But it takes about 3 weeks for the disease to progress from infection to death. That would mean that there were 400 infected people 3 weeks ago. Doubling every 7 days would mean 1600 are infected now.
COVID-19 is thought to have a reproductive rate of 2.9 So for every 1 person infected they infect 2.9 others.
Common flu is 1.5
1918 flu 2-3
Measles 12-18
Here's an example (from the website gazzagazza has pointed out to us) why data from an outbread can not be trusted...
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak.
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease. Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).
Its not so much that data from China is not to be trusted it's data coming from an epidemic during an epidemic can not be trusted. We just don't have all the data...
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak.
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease. Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).
Its not so much that data from China is not to be trusted it's data coming from an epidemic during an epidemic can not be trusted. We just don't have all the data...
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It does appear as you say, the mortality rate has increased. Mortality for Hubei province 3.8% -- In Iran it's approaching 20%, but with a small number of cases.
No new cases in US, Canada...Italy reports 48 new cases yesterday.
Most tech workers are under 35 in China, retirement was at 55. (they laughed I was still working) They are low risk.
It definately is subsiding now, supply chain risk.
From daily reports.
Situation reports
It definately is subsiding now, supply chain risk.
From daily reports.
Situation reports
Attachments
My concern about under 35 and low risk is the Dr's under 40 who have died from it. They may be a special case but there still is not enough good info. Neither China nor the US are providing enough good info, neither have a high incentive politically to do so yet and some of the necessary resources to get good info are in short supply.
I did receive some more PCB's from JLBPCB but no gold. They are operating in a reduced capability mode for now.
I did receive some more PCB's from JLBPCB but no gold. They are operating in a reduced capability mode for now.
I think the mortality rate outside China is 1%. I get this from Prof. Neil Ferguson (Director, Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics.) I think the low rate is because the medical systems are just seeing the first cases and everyone is getting the best possible care. But once the cases start skyrocketing there won't be resources for everyone.
Mortality Rate
2.1% Nationwide China
4.9% Wuhan
3.1% Hubei
and 0.16% other provinces reported by the NHC of China.
I think what we're seeing here is how the medical system in the epicentre of the outbreak was overwhelmed by the number of patients and people died due to lack of treatment in an overburdened heath care system. I imagine the same thing will happen here once the epidemic progresses unless strict quarantines significantly retard the progress of the disease.
Here is a quote from the Atlantic magazine
Within the past two weeks, the CDC said it would start screening people in five U.S. cities, in an effort to give some idea of how many cases are actually out there. But tests are still not widely available. As of Friday, the Association of Public Health Laboratories said that only California, Nebraska, and Illinois had the capacity to test people for the virus.
It's assumed that there are people now in the USA with COVID-19 who are mildly ill or asymptomatic and undetected.
And here is a quote from the WHO link that you'd provided. I downloaded the "Disease commodity package - Novel Coronavirus (nCoV)"
Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) Immunoassay Culture
no commercial rRT-PCR kits yet available.
So there are no test kits available to determine who has the disease.
Here's what was recommended in the WHO package. It was almost all equipment to provide oxygen to patents and personal protective equipment for the medical workers...
Endotracheal tube
Lung ventilators
Portable ventilator
Oxygen concentrators
Oxygen prongs, nasal, nonsterile, single use
These are the types of things that we'll run out of and will be in short supply...this is what people will not be able to get and will drive the mortality rate from 1% outside China as it is now to 2% (at least that's what I believe will happen...)
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I think we will get a better feel for the behavior as cases are reported in Italy and other European countries with more open reporting.
The inconsistent reporting between the official numbers from the health ministry and those from the a parliament minister from Qom is reminiscent of the official reporting from China and what is shown on video from people who were later censured.
I don't trust numbers from closed societies.
The inconsistent reporting between the official numbers from the health ministry and those from the a parliament minister from Qom is reminiscent of the official reporting from China and what is shown on video from people who were later censured.
I don't trust numbers from closed societies.
Here's a quote from National Health Commission (NHC) of China.
Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.
Here's an other quote
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent. (that was early on of course...)
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I just got a 90 minute lecture on PCR from the wife -- she's a famous molecular biologist. If she starts telling you a story, you'd better have a chair.
The lowest level of incidence in China is in Xizang -- where the ethnic Uighur group live.
Ex Italy and Israel, no new cases in European region. Italy is very troubling, however.
The lowest level of incidence in China is in Xizang -- where the ethnic Uighur group live.
Ex Italy and Israel, no new cases in European region. Italy is very troubling, however.
@Jackinnj - I'd love to talk to your wife some! My wife and I are molecular virologists in Mass. It's awfully rare that my lives in biology and audio intersect.
I have to say, I am so proud of the scientific community working on this virus. Granted, it's a FAILURE in terms of containment, but we have the local Wuhan government to blame for that. And once an airborne pathogen gets out of it's primary zoonosis, you're not going to stop it.
But the scientific response to the outbreak: viral identification, isolation, sequencing, and distribution of molecular data have been exemplary and timely. Within a couple weeks of local emergence, we had case reports, empirical observations, viral characterization, and sequencing data distributed worldwide. With that, researchers everywhere can work to combat the virus. I'm literally looking at hundreds of viral sequences right now. On the side, my company is working on a therapeutic that we are testing. I hear that my old PhD lab is working on something else that can help. Moderna (run by my good friend Dr. Moore) already has a vaccine trial in pre-testing!
It's nice to have good news when the majority is bad.
I have to say, I am so proud of the scientific community working on this virus. Granted, it's a FAILURE in terms of containment, but we have the local Wuhan government to blame for that. And once an airborne pathogen gets out of it's primary zoonosis, you're not going to stop it.
But the scientific response to the outbreak: viral identification, isolation, sequencing, and distribution of molecular data have been exemplary and timely. Within a couple weeks of local emergence, we had case reports, empirical observations, viral characterization, and sequencing data distributed worldwide. With that, researchers everywhere can work to combat the virus. I'm literally looking at hundreds of viral sequences right now. On the side, my company is working on a therapeutic that we are testing. I hear that my old PhD lab is working on something else that can help. Moderna (run by my good friend Dr. Moore) already has a vaccine trial in pre-testing!
It's nice to have good news when the majority is bad.
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