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Old Yesterday, 01:43 PM   #51
jackinnj is offline jackinnj  United States
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Supply chain broken?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flavious Maximus View Post

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease. Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
It does appear as you say, the mortality rate has increased. Mortality for Hubei province 3.8% -- In Iran it's approaching 20%, but with a small number of cases.

No new cases in US, Canada...Italy reports 48 new cases yesterday.
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Old Yesterday, 08:53 PM   #52
jfetter is offline jfetter  Costa Rica
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Supply chain broken?
Most tech workers are under 35 in China, retirement was at 55. (they laughed I was still working) They are low risk.
It definately is subsiding now, supply chain risk.
From daily reports.
Situation reports
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Old Yesterday, 09:11 PM   #53
1audio is offline 1audio  United States
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Supply chain broken?
My concern about under 35 and low risk is the Dr's under 40 who have died from it. They may be a special case but there still is not enough good info. Neither China nor the US are providing enough good info, neither have a high incentive politically to do so yet and some of the necessary resources to get good info are in short supply.

I did receive some more PCB's from JLBPCB but no gold. They are operating in a reduced capability mode for now.
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Old Yesterday, 10:40 PM   #54
jan.didden is offline jan.didden  Europe
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My NextPCB boards came in today. Only green. Indeed, reduced capacity still.

Jan
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Old Today, 12:05 AM   #55
Flavious Maximus is offline Flavious Maximus  Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jackinnj View Post
It does appear as you say, the mortality rate has increased. Mortality for Hubei province 3.8% -- In Iran it's approaching 20%, but with a small number of cases.

No new cases in US, Canada...Italy reports 48 new cases yesterday.
I think the mortality rate outside China is 1%. I get this from Prof. Neil Ferguson (Director, Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics.) I think the low rate is because the medical systems are just seeing the first cases and everyone is getting the best possible care. But once the cases start skyrocketing there won't be resources for everyone.
Mortality Rate
2.1% Nationwide China
4.9% Wuhan
3.1% Hubei
and 0.16% other provinces reported by the NHC of China.

I think what we're seeing here is how the medical system in the epicentre of the outbreak was overwhelmed by the number of patients and people died due to lack of treatment in an overburdened heath care system. I imagine the same thing will happen here once the epidemic progresses unless strict quarantines significantly retard the progress of the disease.

Here is a quote from the Atlantic magazine
Within the past two weeks, the CDC said it would start screening people in five U.S. cities, in an effort to give some idea of how many cases are actually out there. But tests are still not widely available. As of Friday, the Association of Public Health Laboratories said that only California, Nebraska, and Illinois had the capacity to test people for the virus.

It's assumed that there are people now in the USA with COVID-19 who are mildly ill or asymptomatic and undetected.

And here is a quote from the WHO link that you'd provided. I downloaded the "Disease commodity package - Novel Coronavirus (nCoV)"
Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) Immunoassay Culture
no commercial rRT-PCR kits yet available.

So there are no test kits available to determine who has the disease.

Here's what was recommended in the WHO package. It was almost all equipment to provide oxygen to patents and personal protective equipment for the medical workers...
Endotracheal tube
Lung ventilators
Portable ventilator
Oxygen concentrators
Oxygen prongs, nasal, nonsterile, single use
These are the types of things that we'll run out of and will be in short supply...this is what people will not be able to get and will drive the mortality rate from 1% outside China as it is now to 2% (at least that's what I believe will happen...)

Last edited by Flavious Maximus; Today at 12:11 AM.
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Old Today, 12:08 AM   #56
nigelwright7557 is offline nigelwright7557  United Kingdom
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From what I have seen the virus is mostly mild.
Those who are dying are mostly those with underlying health conditions.
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Old Today, 12:24 AM   #57
TheGimp is offline TheGimp  United States
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I think we will get a better feel for the behavior as cases are reported in Italy and other European countries with more open reporting.

The inconsistent reporting between the official numbers from the health ministry and those from the a parliament minister from Qom is reminiscent of the official reporting from China and what is shown on video from people who were later censured.

I don't trust numbers from closed societies.
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Old Today, 12:29 AM   #58
Flavious Maximus is offline Flavious Maximus  Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nigelwright7557 View Post
From what I have seen the virus is mostly mild.
Those who are dying are mostly those with underlying health conditions.
Here's a quote from National Health Commission (NHC) of China.

Front the analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor.

Here's an other quote
Deaths in Wuhan were 313, accounting for 74% of China's total.
Most of the cases were still mild cases, therefore there was no need to panic.
Asked why Wuhan was so much higher than the national level, the NHC official replied that it was for lack of resources, citing as an example that there were only 110 critical care beds in the three designated hospitals where most of the cases were sent. (that was early on of course...)

Last edited by Flavious Maximus; Today at 12:33 AM.
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