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Old 23rd February 2020, 08:36 AM   #41
Charles Darwin is offline Charles Darwin  United Kingdom
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The worrying thing is that there are now many cases appearing which are not epidemiologically linked ie cases of people who get Covid 19 who have not been to China or had any contact with people who have been there and cases which progress rapidly ie go from barely showing symptoms to hospitalization in a matter of hours.

My guess right now is that it can not be stopped, merely that the spread might be slowed down a little bit. In South Korea the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled overnight and in China infection has not peaked yet.

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Old 23rd February 2020, 09:48 AM   #42
gazzagazza is offline gazzagazza  New Zealand
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Originally Posted by Charles Darwin View Post
The worrying thing is that there are now many cases appearing which are not epidemiologically linked ie cases of people who get Covid 19 who have not been to China or had any contact with people who have been there and cases which progress rapidly ie go from barely showing symptoms to hospitalization in a matter of hours.

My guess right now is that it can not be stopped, merely that the spread might be slowed down a little bit. In South Korea the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled overnight and in China infection has not peaked yet.

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China does look like it has peaked. Rational content found below...

Coronavirus Update (Live): 78,866 Cases and 2,464 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
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Old 23rd February 2020, 11:38 AM   #43
Charles Darwin is offline Charles Darwin  United Kingdom
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That does nothing to contradict my post above except that South Korea has added nearly another 200 cases overnight.
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Old 23rd February 2020, 03:59 PM   #44
kevinkr is offline kevinkr  United States
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Old 23rd February 2020, 04:18 PM   #45
jfetter is offline jfetter  Costa Rica
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Just saying to give a better view , I've dealt with the business side of PLA going back to 1980s, have observed:
#1 They honor all contracts to the letter irrespective of geopolitical conditions.
#2 They expect same in return.
#3 If you are a fool they will surely take advantage. Ie IP
#4 They severely punish anyone internally committing embezzlement or taking bribes. Fraud not so much because a fool is on the other end.
#5 They will favor you or your company if any successful prior business history.
#6 The PLA run everything in China.

So the PLA is ultimately publishing those reports and probably are accurate within the bounds of error.

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Old 23rd February 2020, 04:19 PM   #46
Flavious Maximus is offline Flavious Maximus  Canada
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Originally Posted by gazzagazza View Post
Some of the numbers out of China represent a saturation of their ability to test and process samples. Priority is given to people with travel history to Wuhan. It's just not possible to test all the people who would need to be tested in order to give us accurate results. But Wuhan has definitely peaked and China itself will peak a month or two after Wuhan.

Someone had wondered if we can trust the numbers from China. I don't think they can find and report all the cases in their country because some 80% of the people with the virus are only mildly ill or even asymptomatic. But the reproductive rate and morbidity numbers match those found outside China...

Unchecked the virus increases at about 10% per day or doubles every 7 days.

So when we see that Iran has 8 deaths we can assume at 2% morbidity rate would mean that there are about 400 infected with the virus in Iran. But it takes about 3 weeks for the disease to progress from infection to death. That would mean that there were 400 infected people 3 weeks ago. Doubling every 7 days would mean 1600 are infected now.

COVID-19 is thought to have a reproductive rate of 2.9 So for every 1 person infected they infect 2.9 others.
Common flu is 1.5
1918 flu 2-3
Measles 12-18
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Old Yesterday, 01:45 AM   #47
TheGimp is offline TheGimp  United States
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In other words with regards to data coming from China,

Data not valid.
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Old Yesterday, 11:47 AM   #48
Flavious Maximus is offline Flavious Maximus  Canada
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Here's an example (from the website gazzagazza has pointed out to us) why data from an outbread can not be trusted...

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak.

The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease. Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "na´ve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

Its not so much that data from China is not to be trusted it's data coming from an epidemic during an epidemic can not be trusted. We just don't have all the data...

Last edited by Flavious Maximus; Yesterday at 11:58 AM. Reason: grammar
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Old Yesterday, 01:39 PM   #49
jackinnj is offline jackinnj  United States
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WHO Daily Report:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=44ff8fd3_2
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Old Yesterday, 03:06 PM   #50
jan.didden is offline jan.didden  Europe
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Fig 3 nicely shows the phase shift between original C cases and international spread.

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