Real Estate Prices

There's so much stuff going on, with friends and my beloved cat dying in just the last couple of weeks. (I'm still coming to terms with my cat because she was my heart.) Among the flurry of deaths was my neighbor 2 doors down. Her husband stopped by today and told me (I feel so terrible I didn't know) and said he's selling the house because he can't afford it. It's not listed as for sale yet but it's valued at over $500K so I looked up my house and... it's gone up $27K in the last 30 days.

Interest rates are going up. Traditionally rising interest rates are directly reflected in the value of real estate. But now interest rates are (predictably) rising and real estate prices are rising faster.

Obvious inflationary signal but is this a long term trend? Prices have been going up for a while but this is crazy.
 
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Sorry to hear of your heavy losses - losing a pet leaves a huge and particularly-shaped hole in one's life of a very different form to losing a human, and only fellow pet-owners could ever understand how deeply it hurts. I hope you will be able to fill it when the time is right.

On the other side of the pond here in North Devon, we have seen an unexpected trend driven by COVID, namely people escaping the Home Counties and London to the area, driving up prices abnormally quickly in what was a very undeveloped backwater. Further, many previously rented properties are now turned over to Airbnb, starving the locals of housing. The gulf between the haves and have-nots is certainly widening very rapidly in this part of England.
 
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Been reading most people these days are just giving up on the idea of ever owning a home. Personally, I've owned 4 homes and no upward real estate trend has ever worked favorably for me, when I needed to sell. Take advantage, if you can; your neighbor is smart. Perhaps he means he cant afford to keep it...

Maybe all this craziness is connected with

S&P.jpg
 
Bubble coming...
Big one.
Here in India also, prices are inching up, outskirts are going double every 5-7 years...
Not so bad in smaller towns.
Big cities, it is silly money.

There was a company called Killer Jeans, they took a shop on lease at a monthly rental of 22.5 million Rupees, about 300,000 US Dollars, for 5,000 square feet in central Delhi.
They gave it back with proper legal formalities after 2 years into a 5 year lease, it was not viable.
The owner sued, and lost...nobody can afford such prices.
A pair of jeans was about 10 Dollars in 2012, they would have to sell a 1000 pairs daily just to pay rent, never mind the product cost.
Simply a prestige issue, I have a shop in Connaught Place!

Jewelry business too, speculative share prices do not reflect empty shops with no customers, and employees to pay.
The only people who gain are the bubble creators, one fund buys, then sells to another fund, the deal makers get a bonus.

Silly money, not earned by hard work money.

Keep a basic house, enough that you can afford, without a mortgage.
Put your money in gold, steel, energy...find a skeptical type of CPA or similar professional to advise you.
And ensure a steady income for regular expenses.
Personal and health insurance, of course.
 
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Hey, its great news for the investors who don't live in the houses they own. Apparently investors have ways to get loans with cheaper interest than mortgage and then can buy the important homes and then rent them to those who need em. Gotta love the system. Big asset managers like BlackRock sit in every company board from banks, to builders and media and I wouldn't be surprised that it is them who make all the money now and in future as their goal is to make profit for investors, not save the planet or economy.
 
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Sorry to hear of your heavy losses - losing a pet leaves a huge and particularly-shaped hole in one's life of a very different form to losing a human, and only fellow pet-owners could ever understand how deeply it hurts. I hope you will be able to fill it when the time is right.
Yes it is more heartbreaking to me than losing a person. It was pretty sudden too; I only had a couple days with her after she got sick. We were together for 14 years, which doesn't seem very long in retrospect.

I will get another cat after a little while. My neighbor's dogs are helping me. I live on the corner so I know all the dogs. My heart belongs to a little Corgi named Mocha. And one of me neighbors recently got a Presa Canario that I was afraid of (I'm not usually afraid of dogs) but she is so sweet and she loves to visit me.
 
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On the other side of the pond here in North Devon, we have seen an unexpected trend driven by COVID, namely people escaping the Home Counties and London to the area, driving up prices abnormally quickly in what was a very undeveloped backwater. Further, many previously rented properties are now turned over to Airbnb, starving the locals of housing. The gulf between the haves and have-nots is certainly widening very rapidly in this part of England.

Yes, Covid rearranged the real estate market here. Single family homes and townhomes with a yard went through the roof. Expensive downtown high rise condos tanked. I can't believe what they're building right here. Developers are tearing down whole blocks of single family homes and building very dense upscale townhouses, and also enormous single family homes that cover 95% of the lot. People are moving in as fast as the paint dries.
 
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rdf

Member
2004-06-21 8:04 am
big smoke
you have houses going for asking price, sometimes a premium
A 1940s one-and-a-half story house around the corner that listed at $950K went for $1.4M. Another house in Windsor a couple doors from friends listed at $399K and went for over $700K. My understanding is this is pretty typical. It's also been accelerating for more than a decade and has little to do with housing stock. The Teranet HPI below for a few secondary Canadian markets. Those increases are over and above inflation and upgrades.
 

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It's about location. If you're willing to live a couple hours west of here (halfway to Iowa) then you can get a whole lot of house for $200K. In my community, $200K will get you into a small, old, 1 bedroom condo. Even 2 bedroom condos are over $200K. And houses, well... they're going up in value fast. There's huge demand right now.

I already know the next block to be torn down. The developer is buying the block out one house at a time and quietly boarding them up. They're some of the oldest houses remaining in Skokie, but they've been kept in excellent shape. They're literally in the shadow of midrise luxury condo buildings.
 

cracked case

Member
2020-07-03 11:44 am
With lots of people buying houses as an investment ( and not living in them ), apparently common in some parts of London, plus the airbnb crowd, I can only think that if house prices began to fall, this could cause a panic that would send prices down very fast as there would be no permanent residents to relocate. With lots of people in the UK on interest only mortgages, a rise in interest rates could leave a lot with negative equity, as they haven't paid of a penny. But then to complicate matters, you've got societal issues such as birth rates below replacement levels just about everywhere apart from Africa, but also declining marriage rates, so two people need two houses. I'm a working class Brit, left school at 15, worked full time ever since, but as quick as I've saved house prices have continually creeped out of reach. Possibly a good thing, as if I'd had a house I'd probably lost it by marriage/ divorce .
 
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There's some rental houses in my neighborhood but only a couple. A lot of the apartments have been converted to condos, and they are not cheap. Occupancy is virtually 100%.

Americans learned their lesson with interest only loans in 2008. There were a lot of empty houses after that fiasco. Interest only loans are not for the family home. They're for speculation properties only.
 
Yes it is more heartbreaking to me than losing a person. It was pretty sudden too; I only had a couple days with her after she got sick. We were together for 14 years, which doesn't seem very long in retrospect.

I will get another cat after a little while. My neighbor's dogs are helping me. I live on the corner so I know all the dogs. My heart belongs to a little Corgi named Mocha. And one of me neighbors recently got a Presa Canario that I was afraid of (I'm not usually afraid of dogs) but she is so sweet and she loves to visit me.
Good to hear you've been 'adopted' by some furry friends - it helps. My oldest dog managed 14 years, and was the only part of one particularly difficult phase of my life which did not change, through losing a baby, divorce, and losing my house. He was literally my reason to remain alive - without him to care for, and his companionship, I doubt I would still be here...
 
House prices world wide are what they are because %rates went to zero after 2009 bailing out the uber rich. If that prat Brown had let the banks go bust ordinary folk would have been covered by the BoE. Pension funds would have recovered quite quickly - his reason for bailing out the banks.

In 2001 we sold a ground floor two bedroomed apartment in BN3 in Hove, Sussex in a conservation area. My now wife bought it in 86 for £34K, it was crap and I converted it from one to two bedroomed and it sold for £179K.This is now the most desirable post code outside central London. If it was on the market today it would sell for £750K - absolutely insane.

A lot of shrewd Americans in the NE saw what was coming in 2008, sold their homes at the top of the market and bought huge bus sized RVs. When the market crashed, bought back their homes at 1/4 the price. Worldwide there is going to be an almighty crash as the % rates go back to normal. Small plots of land anywhere decent in the South of England go for £500,000.

The reset is coming and that's without Hitler Mk2 in the Ukraine - interesting times indeed.

Last year I lost my friend of nearly 15 years, he had lived well over 3 years longer than normal for a dog his size - the Golden Boy, the adventures we had in the Badlands in Andaluz. I couldn't let a stranger vet put him down that would have been an act of cowardice and betrayal, he was my friend it was my duty, my responsibility I couldn't let him suffer so it was me that gave him the lethal injection - one of the hardest things I've ever had to do. The dignity with which he met his end and knew what I was going to do, I shall never forget - you can trust a dog but humans, be careful, be very careful.
 
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Been reading most people these days are just giving up on the idea of ever owning a home. Personally, I've owned 4 homes and no upward real estate trend has ever worked favorably for me, when I needed to sell. Take advantage, if you can; your neighbor is smart. Perhaps he means he cant afford to keep it...

Maybe all this craziness is connected with

View attachment 1050340
That chart would be more honest if the vertical scale was logarithmic.
And in constant dollars. Wouldn't look nearly as impressive that way.
A Dollar ain't a Dollar anymore, not matter whose country its in.
 
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