Department of Ooops

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I used to be a believer, but the Climategate emails have turned me into a sceptic (i.e. not quite an unbeliever, but close!).

I notice now that warm weather is (direct) evidence of global warming (according to journalists and politicians). Cold weather is (indirect) evidence of global warming as local variation is expected to increase. This is beginning to look like false religion rather than true science.

It is time the real climate scientists reined in their fans and gagged their spokesmen. I realise that at first you have to exaggerate a perceived danger in order to get the politicians' attention, but continued exaggeration eventually loses credibility.
weathe ris just hte net effect of energy and energy transfer. If the TOTAL system is gaining energy (by not losing it) it stands to reason that hots will be hotter, colds colder. Winds windier too.

The real science is complex and convoluted. The global weather system is such that it is beyond the ability of the masses (thats us) to fully comprehend - even the experts get tripped up by it from time to time. It is not a simple linear system.

The upshot is that the explanations given are often oversimplifications. Media then take it one step further to dumb down to the average consumer, who then hears only half and applies their own bias before bleating in a pub somewhere to there stupider mates.

Hence we have the extreme ends of the discussion going on noisily while the facts lie somewhere in the middle ground.

THe article SY linked and the immediate interpretations here are a salient example of exactly this - hence my quoting the paragraph I did.
Climate and particularly the long term trajectory of climate, is by far the most complex physical phenomenon humans have attempted to understand...chaos theory anyone? One only needs to consider that during the last millenium Earth experienced 300 balmy years (Medieval climate optimum 1000-1300AD), a prolonged cooling (Little Ice Age 1450-1890AD), and the current ongoing pronounced warming. Theories link the 1st period to increased solar output and/or heavy volcanism, but the cause is not solidly understood. While greenhouse gases absoultely raise ambient temperature (thankfully...without them we'd be over 30°C cooler) one could speculate looking back over the last million years that we might be getting ready to surf glaciers again in the Great Lakes without anthropogenic greenhouse contributions. If all goes well we may be able to claim to understand climate science by the end of this century...hopefully we'll learn that our actions in the meantime at least satisfied the Hippocratic maxim "First do no harm!":cool:
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