Life After the Oil Crash

roibm said:
An interesting link:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Introduction.html

Could it be the truth many are not willing to know about?


Scare people with any plausible scenario and they will buy your book in droves. We've had multiple collapse economy tales, ebola plagues, global warming, multiple Chernobyls, rise of the right, rise of the left, demise of the center, AIDS, you name it. Lots of books were sold on each topic and we're all still here.

speaker
 
Re: Re: Life After the Oil Crash

speaker said:
Scare people with any plausible scenario and they will buy your book in droves. We've had multiple collapse economy tales, ebola plagues, global warming, multiple Chernobyls, rise of the right, rise of the left, demise of the center, AIDS, you name it. Lots of books were sold on each topic and we're all still here.
Ahhh... I see. You are still here. Good!
For how long? Your children?
Typical example of thinking for today, not carring about the future and probably driving a 10mpg car along a class a amp that sucks 1kW @ idle.
Thank you.

PS: How much do you think the oil reserves will last? 100 years?

PS2: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html
read at least the titles. better the details as well.
 
SY said:
Julian Simon vs. Paul Ehrlich. Remember who won that bet.
For those who want some details on this:
http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=44

And for you SY:
Simon easily won because he knew that the supply for resources was not becoming more scarce but more abundant, since the economic history of predominantly free capitalist nations had demonstrated how the prices of most major commodities have declined over time.
I didn't know the oil was becoming more abundand. Contrary.
Or is this what you meant? :hot:
 
2. Gas prices would hit record highs by summer 2004. This would become a major issue in the 2004 Presidential election

Just read this today :
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/04/markets/oil.reut/index.htm

Guess the quote from life after the oil crash is spot on!! ;-)

Seriously though...What I like about it ...is that it does not seem to come from a fanatical person...that blames Jews or Wasps or whoever in particular....or at least I have not been able to detect it. And I find it hard to find the ulterior motive (apart from trying to make a quick buck)
 
SY, here is my offer for you:
We do the same thing that Julian Simon vs. Paul Ehrlich did. Officially in front of a notary with papers etc.
But you have to come here in Europe(if you are not already here).

We consider 1000EUR and we se how many liters oil we could buy with them today. In ten years we will consider how many liters we will be able to buy with this amount.
If in 10 years it will be possible to buy more liters, I will give you 500EUR, otherwise you will give me 500EUR.
(considering the current value of EUR)

Deal? :hot:
 
Re: Re: Re: Life After the Oil Crash

roibm said:

Ahhh... I see. You are still here. Good!
For how long? Your children?
Typical example of thinking for today, not carring about the future and probably driving a 10mpg car along a class a amp that sucks 1kW @ idle.
Thank you.


Don't forget, we drive with our air conditioners "ON"on and the windows open while running over the oppressed here in the USA.

speaker
 
I actually bothered to read the ExxonMobil report on one of these sites.
From that report it is clear that there is NOTHING..ZERO..ZILCH to worry about wrt to energy.

Thank God for that. Now I can go back worrying about REAL concerns that are actually already happening such as half the world not having enough to eat.

(Luckily you are helping there Sy.) Since you don't eat meat. If we all became vegetarians there would be enough food for the world...(Currently 80% of the worlds grain and maize is used for producing animal proteïns of which they use (the animals) 10% of the energy value...the rest they crap out) Talk about efficiency!!!
 
roibm: If you allow an inflation adjustment tied to a cost-of-living index for the US or Europe (your choice) and put the bet in US dollars, you've got a deal.

The Euro is a new currency that's been volatile, and there are lots of changes in the composition of the EU. The dollar has been around for a while and the US is not adding states. I'll bet on the dollar. I will not bet on the Euro.
 
roibm said:

We consider 1000EUR and we se how many liters oil we could buy with them today. In ten years we will consider how many liters we will be able to buy with this amount.

I'd use another means of comparison, at the rate you are taxed in the EU, that might buy you a few liters and no more in 10 years.

Refining a barrel of oil has the same production difficulty everywhere in the world. Yet, your price per gallon is ~€4.30. I paid €1.50 per gallon yesterday for 93 octane! On top of that, about 45% of that cost is tax! Actual distributor selling price before taxation on a gallon of gas would be ~€.83!

Let's round down because you most likely have higher labor & transportation cost for the refining. I would wager though that at least ~€3.00 per gallon goes to your government as tax.

I cannot believe that you stand for it in the EU.

speaker
 
Disabled Account
Joined 2002
We pay 1,299 euro per *liter* !! I saw a program about the american elections last week where politicians promised to keep prices low. This is predicted to be a spearhead in the upcoming elections because a raise in petrol price will not be accepted by the majority of the people ( that's what they illustrated with interviews ).

They did good research and calculated if the american population would drive european style cars ( 2 liter engines max. ) they would not need to import any oil at all.... So american produced oil would suffice, no Iraqi petrol station required !

Not wanting to judge another people or country but I 've come to think that american care for the environment/future is plain ridiculous or to put it more mildly : short term politics.
 
Disabled Account
Joined 2003
roibm said:
We consider 1000EUR and we se how many liters oil we could buy with them today. In ten years we will consider how many liters we will be able to buy with this amount.
If in 10 years it will be possible to buy more liters, I will give you 500EUR, otherwise you will give me 500EUR.
(considering the current value of EUR)

Deal? :hot:

you don't think the above "test" is foundamentally flawed and doesn't answer your question?

Let me know if you truly think so.
 
millwood said:
you don't think the above "test" is foundamentally flawed and doesn't answer your question?
Let me know if you truly think so.

Shock, horror...
Sorry
mill.jpg
wood, I didn't know your name is SY :bigeyes:
 
SY said:
roibm: If you allow an inflation adjustment tied to a cost-of-living index for the US or Europe (your choice) and put the bet in US dollars, you've got a deal.
Using USD as currency I would agree...
But adjustment on cost-of-living when almost everything depends on oil?
Give me some links so I can understand better wha is this cost-of-living index.
 
jean-paul said:
We pay 1,299 euro per *liter* !!

.....I 've come to think that american care for the environment/future is plain ridiculous or to put it more mildly : short term politics.

€1.299/L = €5.00/gallon = Gack! Why do you tolerate this robbery?

You should come visit here and speak with more people about our concern for the environment. I'm 43; recycling and enviromental responisibility were part of my education going back 35 years. Nearly every urban community in the US recycles today.

In addition, you 've got blue skies over Los Angeles when they used to be smog-choked 365 days a year. Songbirds not seen for 3 decades have returned in New England and you can swim in the Charles river in Boston. In the past, high levels of PCB's, toulene, and other manufacturing wastes were evident. The US is cleaner now than it has been for decades. Can you say the same about all EU member states?

speaker
 
recycling and enviromental responisibility were part of my education going back 35 years. Nearly every urban community in the US recycles today.

Penn and Teller just did a wonderful show on recycling.


Give me some links so I can understand better wha is this cost-of-living index.

There are quite a few ways of adjusting it. One way is tying the dollar value to another commodity, like gold. There are several other possible indexes. I'll dig up a list of a few, and let you choose one that sounds fairest to you.

EDIT: When I get home this evening, I'll look up the formula that Ehrlich and Simon agreed on for pegging the dollar. I'll say in advance of knowing what that is that it would be acceptable to me.