Driver prices have already been increasing, especially those with Neo. Ever since China effectively got a monopoly on Neo, price increases were in the cards.
But all commodities are increasing... some just not as fast as neo.
Rising prices should drive an increase in diy... the increase we as diyers see in drivers will be multiplied by 5 x or more in commercail speakers.
dave
But all commodities are increasing... some just not as fast as neo.
Rising prices should drive an increase in diy... the increase we as diyers see in drivers will be multiplied by 5 x or more in commercail speakers.
dave
No. Not the end of DIY. Rare earths are not rare, they're only thinly distributed over most of the earth.
Rising prices means there will be deposits exploited elsewhere than China. The Chinese are making an error in trying to control the market.
Also, there will be materials to replace neodymium if the price remains high
Rising prices means there will be deposits exploited elsewhere than China. The Chinese are making an error in trying to control the market.
Also, there will be materials to replace neodymium if the price remains high
Takes a fair bit of time to develop deposits. Ten years is the figure I've seen. So in the short to medium term prices will rise.
The price of plain 'ol metal has also been going up, so I don't see much of anything holding steady or getting cheaper. Natural disasters, which seem to be on the rise, cause an increase in the price of building materials- wood, mdf and everything else you can think of. DIY audio will continue but all hobbies will become more of a luxury if the economy worsens.
Fully half of the increases in REM's can be laid at the feet of Mr. Bernanke's QE2 disaster. The price of various rare earth metals is determined by futures contracts, which are volatile and highly manipulated. The increases of the past 9 months come from hedge fund and Wall St. bank manipulation (read JP Morgan, Goldman Sucks, etc) If the stock market continues to correct (which it should), look for margin calls to come into play and REM's to drop 15% at a bare minimum.
Ironically rather the opposite - all other activities barring hobbies will be the new luxury. Be prepared for lots more hobby time guys as 'real' jobs ain't a comin' back.
Ironically rather the opposite - all other activities barring hobbies will be the new luxury. Be prepared for lots more hobby time guys as 'real' jobs ain't a comin' back.
There might be something to this, I see some parallels in my career in recent years..
The Mountain Pass mine in California was shut down but is reopening and Molycorp figures they'll be producing by 2012.
They're being optimistic, I expect, but it certainly won't take ten years. Other companies are looking at exploiting some enormous tailings left from mining and refining operations of more common minerals.
My guess, based on past history, is that if materials become too costly, replacements are found. This seems very likely in the case of materials used in every day things like cars and computers.
Mountain Pass rare earth mine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I got sidetracked. My point is that if you have commodity like neodymium which is used in a lot of consumer and industrial gear and the price starts to really get stratospheric, folk will try and get it off the moon, and they will find substitutes. And they will find ways to use less of it.
I think Ab was right. There might be a short to medium term increase in price of speakers.
There's a rule of life: you can't maintain a corner on a commodity. Either someone finds an alternate supply, or a substitute, or the economy makes a sudden turn and the hoarded good's value crashes.
I think Ab was right. There might be a short to medium term increase in price of speakers.
There's a rule of life: you can't maintain a corner on a commodity. Either someone finds an alternate supply, or a substitute, or the economy makes a sudden turn and the hoarded good's value crashes.
The cost of neodymium in the cost of a drive unit? I think its largely irrelevant - people can always revert back to ferrite with a modest downgrade in performance.
There's a flaw in that argument - it presupposes its a commodity. But if someone's got a corner on it, then it ain't a commodity. Think Dolby Digital just as one example.
Dolby digital ain't a commodity. It's a licensed technology. It's got an identity.
Chinese Neo is exactly the same as US Neo. Neo is anonymous, just like gold, silver, oil.
Metals are commodities. They are traded on commodities exchanges or by metals dealers that specialize.
China doesn't have a corner. It's trying to establish one and it's going to fail because the California mine is reopening.
I think it has to do with chasing bubbles
Tech stock bubble went to housing bubble and now commodities bubble. Billions of dollars moving in seconds tend to cause bubbles so Neo is not immune. China knows this as they do pay attention and have announced their plans.
The good side of things is it does wake people up, best to have multiple supplies to keep prices stable. At least alternatives are making waves where Neo is needed most (electric motors) so long term Neo will come down. Look how alternative energy has really jumped globally with the chronic high cost of oil? "Green tech" means money green...that is what is pushing it.
Will speaker manufactures still use Neo a year from now? I figure it will be used with large PA speakers to cut weight, maybe some ultra high-end stuff but will go the way of Alnico.
Now that most manufactured things are disposable, they are not engineered to be repaired--commodity prices will respond just for the demand to replace junk with more junk. Hopefully there will be a resurgence of devices that have spare parts available. The Apple iPad2 is the ultimate in disposable, held together with double-sided tape, can't replace the battery and no protection for the battery or screen. Maybe the continued march of material costs will get rid of the disposable junk and quality can then enter into the equation once more.
All I know is if you pay a HUGE premium for a PA driver running Neo magnets--it better be able to be re-coned!
Tech stock bubble went to housing bubble and now commodities bubble. Billions of dollars moving in seconds tend to cause bubbles so Neo is not immune. China knows this as they do pay attention and have announced their plans.
The good side of things is it does wake people up, best to have multiple supplies to keep prices stable. At least alternatives are making waves where Neo is needed most (electric motors) so long term Neo will come down. Look how alternative energy has really jumped globally with the chronic high cost of oil? "Green tech" means money green...that is what is pushing it.
Will speaker manufactures still use Neo a year from now? I figure it will be used with large PA speakers to cut weight, maybe some ultra high-end stuff but will go the way of Alnico.
Now that most manufactured things are disposable, they are not engineered to be repaired--commodity prices will respond just for the demand to replace junk with more junk. Hopefully there will be a resurgence of devices that have spare parts available. The Apple iPad2 is the ultimate in disposable, held together with double-sided tape, can't replace the battery and no protection for the battery or screen. Maybe the continued march of material costs will get rid of the disposable junk and quality can then enter into the equation once more.
All I know is if you pay a HUGE premium for a PA driver running Neo magnets--it better be able to be re-coned!
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