I think the biggest change is going to be from the cheapness/ubiquity of computation and the digitization of audio. Suddenly, room/speaker correction, digital crossovers and power dacs make sense. At some point, it will be cheaper to perform all of these steps in silicion than it is to buy the equivalent analog componentry. For example, the efficiency of power-DAC amplification makes the entire amplifier cheaper because you no longer need to buy/ship big heatsinks. In fact, they'll be cheap and compact enought to be incorporated directly in speakers more frequently.
Scientists will have a better psychoacoustic map. Sound processing will, for once, improve the sound rather than mask shortcomings. Data compression will be less noticable. Sound engineers will be more well versed in the art of the multichannel mix. Popular recordings will still be clipped/compressed (in the dynamic range sense).
I think that stereo will still be the dominant music format. In home theater, people will continue to use some kind of matrixed 5.1 format so the real format will be at lesat 7.1 channel. Shouldn't be too different. Don't know about bit formats, but compressed audio will become even more popular and may even become the dominant sales medium through online sales.
However, people will be freer in their choice of speaker configuration. They'll be able to place many compact, self-powered, speakers (with wireless digital interconnect) around however they want. There will still be "optimal placements," but real consumers will care less about that than decor (possibly via SAF, but with this whole metrosexual thing...). These installations will probably frequently resemble sub/sat systems (hopefully with a lower crossover, say around 100Hz) but will have much better integration compared to current sub/sats because each component can be tuned separately. People will start having a separate height, rear, side, and front surrounds.
Bose will still be around and probably among be first (but not the best) to do alot of these things. Come to think of it, they have. They'll still be overpriced, and the "one true" audiophile community will still hate them.
Vintage analog/tube/stereo gear will retain a healthy following. Such nostalgia will cause some resistance against these trends, even if these newer systems are better.
Basically, I'm not predicting anything particularly revolutionary, just the gradual trickle-down and refinement of current digital technology. The usual pattern of "progress."
-Won
Scientists will have a better psychoacoustic map. Sound processing will, for once, improve the sound rather than mask shortcomings. Data compression will be less noticable. Sound engineers will be more well versed in the art of the multichannel mix. Popular recordings will still be clipped/compressed (in the dynamic range sense).
I think that stereo will still be the dominant music format. In home theater, people will continue to use some kind of matrixed 5.1 format so the real format will be at lesat 7.1 channel. Shouldn't be too different. Don't know about bit formats, but compressed audio will become even more popular and may even become the dominant sales medium through online sales.
However, people will be freer in their choice of speaker configuration. They'll be able to place many compact, self-powered, speakers (with wireless digital interconnect) around however they want. There will still be "optimal placements," but real consumers will care less about that than decor (possibly via SAF, but with this whole metrosexual thing...). These installations will probably frequently resemble sub/sat systems (hopefully with a lower crossover, say around 100Hz) but will have much better integration compared to current sub/sats because each component can be tuned separately. People will start having a separate height, rear, side, and front surrounds.
Bose will still be around and probably among be first (but not the best) to do alot of these things. Come to think of it, they have. They'll still be overpriced, and the "one true" audiophile community will still hate them.
Vintage analog/tube/stereo gear will retain a healthy following. Such nostalgia will cause some resistance against these trends, even if these newer systems are better.
Basically, I'm not predicting anything particularly revolutionary, just the gradual trickle-down and refinement of current digital technology. The usual pattern of "progress."
-Won
After the oil runs out and the subsequent apocalypse, we will all be forced to make our own music with instruments cobbled together from the rubble...
At least this will put an end to the "they are here" versus "you are there" arguments. Or perhaps not...
John
P.S. Just kidding (At least I hope so, because I don't know how to play any instruments
.
At least this will put an end to the "they are here" versus "you are there" arguments. Or perhaps not...
John
P.S. Just kidding (At least I hope so, because I don't know how to play any instruments
.
Funny, the OP's prediction of cheap neodymium has already come and gone since then.
Xmax and power handling has increased incrementally through the years, as well as cheap, efficient power amplification.
One now can easily afford enough power to burn up more expensive drivers.
DSP has trickled down to the point where active processing is used in lots of consumer grade receivers, and for PA use speakers with built in amps and processing are nearly as common as passive external amp set ups.
The potential to make a speaker system sound excellent or truly wretched has never been available to so many.
But it has been over a half century of waiting, and I still don't have a flying car...
Art
Yesterday I went into a vintage clothes shop, very small, and after some 5 minutes I was asking the owner where the sound was coming from, pointing at two panels hanging from the ceiling.
Then I suddendly remembered
the existence of those 'tactile trasducers'...indeed there it was !
Complemented with a subwoofer, the sound was present everywhere.
Not my kind of sound, but...eventually me and the owner ended talking about
the possibility of opening a vintage audio shop !
Then I suddendly rememberedthe existence of those 'tactile trasducers'...indeed there it was !
Complemented with a subwoofer, the sound was present everywhere.
Not my kind of sound, but...eventually me and the owner ended talking about
the possibility of opening a vintage audio shop !
I will add a couple of predictions to the thread. Though they are hardly 'news'.
1.) A vast majority of media will be non-tangible/non-physical Hi-Res/HD files. Streaming will dominate home listening.
2.) The only physical media that has any hope is BluRay Audio. Huge storage capacity, BluRay players in 10 years will be in virtually every home. High Resolution playback capability. BluRay players already have Streaming, network, and Internet connections built in.
Though don't get me started on BluRay. BluRay would currently be the default standard, and DVD would have faded to obscurity, except BluRay still wants to position itself as a premium product. If a BluRay is $5 more than a DVD, and there isn't some specific advantage to the particular movie I'm considering, DVD wins, even with that narrow price gap.
However, I guarantee that if both the BluRay and the DVD are $20, no one is going to choose DVD. But BluRay will never be the universal default standard until it starts seeing itself that way. Once it drops the idea that it is somehow a premium product, it will become the standard, and DVD will fade to obscurity.
CD replaced vinyl very quickly, in only a year or two, because the price was the same, why put up with the fragility and inconvenience of vinyl when the durable CD was the same price? BluRay has been on the market for 12 years and STILL hasn't replaced DVD. In my view, this hasn't happened because of poor marketing decisions on the part of movie studios.
3.) Simply due to the high volume of existing CDs, the CD will no more die than the Vinyl Album has. But, in 10 years, the glory days of CD will be over. The problem with any physical media is that it is locked into a physical standard, where as computer files, and associated software can change in the drop of a hat. The world simply moves too fast to be locked into physical media standard.
4.) The only advancement in Speaker Magnet Technology that I am aware of has been introduced in the Dali Epicon line which uses a magnet structure that was originally intended to make Electric Motors more efficient. This technology will gradually makes its way down into more common and affordable speakers.
5.) Personal audio (iPod, etc...) will dominate. Though I hope the current generation eventually figures out the advantage of a good home audio system. To some extent, Home Cinema is driving the home audio market. But myself, I prefer a Stereo. In the future, Stereo will be something of a rare product for purists. Home Cinema will dominate at home, and personal audio will dominate every where else.
6.) I hope and pray with the advent of high quality high resolution audio files, that studio and artists will restore the dynamic range to music. I am of course speaking of "The Loudness Wars". I hope this is one war we will win. I already see efforts underway to kill the artificial 'loudness' in music.
On digital Class-D switching amps, say what you will but this is one technology that is advancing quickly. What Class-D amps once were, they no longer are. Many Class-D amps sound pretty impressive, and with Home Cinema rising to 11 channels and likely more in the future, Class-D amps are something of a must. It is difficult to cram 1100 to 1500 watts into one small box, and retain Class-AB amps. That wattage is a typical electric space heater. The efficiency is something of a must. I see this technology advancing and to some extent taking over. But, again, myself, I prefer good old Class-AB amps.
Just a few thoughts.
Steve
1.) A vast majority of media will be non-tangible/non-physical Hi-Res/HD files. Streaming will dominate home listening.
2.) The only physical media that has any hope is BluRay Audio. Huge storage capacity, BluRay players in 10 years will be in virtually every home. High Resolution playback capability. BluRay players already have Streaming, network, and Internet connections built in.
Though don't get me started on BluRay. BluRay would currently be the default standard, and DVD would have faded to obscurity, except BluRay still wants to position itself as a premium product. If a BluRay is $5 more than a DVD, and there isn't some specific advantage to the particular movie I'm considering, DVD wins, even with that narrow price gap.
However, I guarantee that if both the BluRay and the DVD are $20, no one is going to choose DVD. But BluRay will never be the universal default standard until it starts seeing itself that way. Once it drops the idea that it is somehow a premium product, it will become the standard, and DVD will fade to obscurity.
CD replaced vinyl very quickly, in only a year or two, because the price was the same, why put up with the fragility and inconvenience of vinyl when the durable CD was the same price? BluRay has been on the market for 12 years and STILL hasn't replaced DVD. In my view, this hasn't happened because of poor marketing decisions on the part of movie studios.
3.) Simply due to the high volume of existing CDs, the CD will no more die than the Vinyl Album has. But, in 10 years, the glory days of CD will be over. The problem with any physical media is that it is locked into a physical standard, where as computer files, and associated software can change in the drop of a hat. The world simply moves too fast to be locked into physical media standard.
4.) The only advancement in Speaker Magnet Technology that I am aware of has been introduced in the Dali Epicon line which uses a magnet structure that was originally intended to make Electric Motors more efficient. This technology will gradually makes its way down into more common and affordable speakers.
5.) Personal audio (iPod, etc...) will dominate. Though I hope the current generation eventually figures out the advantage of a good home audio system. To some extent, Home Cinema is driving the home audio market. But myself, I prefer a Stereo. In the future, Stereo will be something of a rare product for purists. Home Cinema will dominate at home, and personal audio will dominate every where else.
6.) I hope and pray with the advent of high quality high resolution audio files, that studio and artists will restore the dynamic range to music. I am of course speaking of "The Loudness Wars". I hope this is one war we will win. I already see efforts underway to kill the artificial 'loudness' in music.
On digital Class-D switching amps, say what you will but this is one technology that is advancing quickly. What Class-D amps once were, they no longer are. Many Class-D amps sound pretty impressive, and with Home Cinema rising to 11 channels and likely more in the future, Class-D amps are something of a must. It is difficult to cram 1100 to 1500 watts into one small box, and retain Class-AB amps. That wattage is a typical electric space heater. The efficiency is something of a must. I see this technology advancing and to some extent taking over. But, again, myself, I prefer good old Class-AB amps.
Just a few thoughts.
Steve
Correctly predicted in 2004 !
Just look at the plethora of headphones of all colour and sizes now
If software can be used to make cheap hardware sound better, it will be. Stereo, as opposed to surround formats, will still dominate. Youngsters will remain more than happy with their ear buds, iPod docks and phone speakers, and home theatre systems will continue to be sold with rumble boxes and satellite speakers. All media will be in 'the cloud'.
Home hi fi will continue to be seen as an anachronism. In a country like the UK, most young people will be living in plasterboard flats, so the opportunities to turn up the volume will be very limited anyway.
For the congnoscenti, real progress will be in Meridian-style DSP which provides a far bigger bang for the buck than exotic magnets and cone materials.
None of this may come to pass if/when the economy implodes!
Home hi fi will continue to be seen as an anachronism. In a country like the UK, most young people will be living in plasterboard flats, so the opportunities to turn up the volume will be very limited anyway.
For the congnoscenti, real progress will be in Meridian-style DSP which provides a far bigger bang for the buck than exotic magnets and cone materials.
None of this may come to pass if/when the economy implodes!
They will be more popular, but more for the mainstream customer and will probably be used the same way as the average boxed HT system is used. Filtration doesn't fix some important problems, it may hide them or trade them.
in the long run the only physical media that has any hope is vinyl
amen
! ...for many, mostly obscure, reasons ..
"...Few people want to hear that agriculture is unsustainable. Fewer still care to consider that the civilization it supports will therefore come to an end"
Good point on the economy, with Wall Street and the Banking Industry treating the market like the wild west, a crash is bound to come.
But additional predictions -
1.) Vinyl will endure - for all its faults it still sounds good. To those complaining about the inferiority of vinyl I can only ask - if it sounds so bad, then why does it sounds so good?
2.) CD will more or less endure - because there are so many CD's out there and because they are so durable, CD's will still hold a place in the music world, at least CD Players will. Whether anyone will still be buying CDs is debatable. Though I prefer to have some tangible media.
However, Hi-Res HD computer music simply does not have a tangible form and it not locked to a physical media, and so can change very quickly as new technology develops. Which is why it will dominate the market very quickly.
3.) DACs and Streaming will be common in most Stereo Amps. Streaming and non-tangible (computer file) media are inevitable, though thank heaven we have moved beyond MP3 to FLAC and even better Hi-Res HD Audio Files. The Streaming capability will included both Internet Streaming and Local Streaming.
Though I repeat that in physical media, BluRay Audio has a chance of gaining a foothold. Everyone will have a player, and the BluRay system already has the capability for Hi-Res playback quality. It is still a fixed standard, but fixed high enough and common enough that it does have potential.
4.) The Internet will become a dominant force in music. Internet Radio will come close to crushing broadcast Radio. Already may broadcast station are duplicating their content by streaming over the internet. Stream broadcasts will also be recorded as well as live, and will be available at the convenience of the listener.
The Internet will dominate broadcast TV as well. In Internet Generation wants to watch on their schedule not broadcast TV's schedule. If they were smart, broadcast TV would duplicate all their content on-line with fewer commercials not more. With on-line broadcast they have the potential for banner ads as well as video adverts. The cost of on-line content has to be much lower for them than broadcast or cable, and that should be reflected in the cost to consumers.
As well as effecting Broadcast Radio and TV, the Internet will also have an effect on Cable. Cable is already crumbling. I think we will have moved to an a-la-carte type Cable. You pay a fixed price for each channel you want, rather than a bundle price. You get what you want, and you only pay for what you want. That will cause some of the big sports channels which command the highest prices to drop their prices to something more reasonable, or move to pay-per-view.
5.) With the introduction of Hi-Res music files, there may be a revival of SACD though I confess that is hard to predict. True you can get superb quality sound and you can get multi-channel recording or surround sound audio, but with BluRay being far more common, I see that as the most likely path. Too bad because SACD is nice. But I still see more potential for BluRay. However for Audio, both could take a step up in the future.
Only time will tell.
Steve
But additional predictions -
1.) Vinyl will endure - for all its faults it still sounds good. To those complaining about the inferiority of vinyl I can only ask - if it sounds so bad, then why does it sounds so good?
2.) CD will more or less endure - because there are so many CD's out there and because they are so durable, CD's will still hold a place in the music world, at least CD Players will. Whether anyone will still be buying CDs is debatable. Though I prefer to have some tangible media.
However, Hi-Res HD computer music simply does not have a tangible form and it not locked to a physical media, and so can change very quickly as new technology develops. Which is why it will dominate the market very quickly.
3.) DACs and Streaming will be common in most Stereo Amps. Streaming and non-tangible (computer file) media are inevitable, though thank heaven we have moved beyond MP3 to FLAC and even better Hi-Res HD Audio Files. The Streaming capability will included both Internet Streaming and Local Streaming.
Though I repeat that in physical media, BluRay Audio has a chance of gaining a foothold. Everyone will have a player, and the BluRay system already has the capability for Hi-Res playback quality. It is still a fixed standard, but fixed high enough and common enough that it does have potential.
4.) The Internet will become a dominant force in music. Internet Radio will come close to crushing broadcast Radio. Already may broadcast station are duplicating their content by streaming over the internet. Stream broadcasts will also be recorded as well as live, and will be available at the convenience of the listener.
The Internet will dominate broadcast TV as well. In Internet Generation wants to watch on their schedule not broadcast TV's schedule. If they were smart, broadcast TV would duplicate all their content on-line with fewer commercials not more. With on-line broadcast they have the potential for banner ads as well as video adverts. The cost of on-line content has to be much lower for them than broadcast or cable, and that should be reflected in the cost to consumers.
As well as effecting Broadcast Radio and TV, the Internet will also have an effect on Cable. Cable is already crumbling. I think we will have moved to an a-la-carte type Cable. You pay a fixed price for each channel you want, rather than a bundle price. You get what you want, and you only pay for what you want. That will cause some of the big sports channels which command the highest prices to drop their prices to something more reasonable, or move to pay-per-view.
5.) With the introduction of Hi-Res music files, there may be a revival of SACD though I confess that is hard to predict. True you can get superb quality sound and you can get multi-channel recording or surround sound audio, but with BluRay being far more common, I see that as the most likely path. Too bad because SACD is nice. But I still see more potential for BluRay. However for Audio, both could take a step up in the future.
Only time will tell.
Steve
I think everything will be online, all others will be dead or dying!
Now the playback system,
I see sound integrated into various objects, streamed bluetooth or whatever from our communication device of choice. (transducers separate form the transport system)
Theater sound hidden or less obtrusive.
Now the playback system,
I see sound integrated into various objects, streamed bluetooth or whatever from our communication device of choice. (transducers separate form the transport system)
Theater sound hidden or less obtrusive.
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