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Old 13th September 2012, 03:22 PM   #27631
SY is offline SY  United States
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I have a question: what is the chance that some (or most) of those scoring 5/5 will believe it is due to their skill rather than luck? I guess that is psychology rather than statistics.
100%. Especially if there's no-one to collect and verify signed scoresheets before the results are announced.
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Old 13th September 2012, 03:29 PM   #27632
DF96 is offline DF96  England
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Fund managers work on the same basis. It has been shown that on average almost all of them do worse than random choice, if you look over a long enough period, but for shorter periods many seem to be either clever or 'unlucky'. I think I saw one test where, over a year, a cat did better at picking stocks than a team of fund managers.

There may be a few fund managers with genuine skill. The snag is that you would need a time machine to take advantage of this as over any finite period you can never be sure whether they are just being lucky, but if you had a time machine you would not need a fund manager!
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Old 13th September 2012, 03:36 PM   #27633
morinix is offline morinix  United States
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This is, of course, John's thread and he has the final word, but... I'd like to appeal to the forum moderators - can you, please, move this DBT/ABX chatter and attacks on J.C. views re. DBT to the separate thread? This one has become barely readable.
Thank you!
Sy is a moderator!
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Old 13th September 2012, 03:39 PM   #27634
SY is offline SY  United States
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Just to be clear, my participation in this thread is NOT as a moderator- my "official" mod posts have a cop icon. I have only acted as a mod here from time to time to delete severe and unambiguous personal attacks.
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Old 13th September 2012, 03:41 PM   #27635
coluke is offline coluke  Italy
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Originally Posted by DF96 View Post
I think I saw one test where, over a year, a cat did better at picking stocks than a team of fund managers.
Nice way to have my three kittens paying for their own food

L.
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Old 13th September 2012, 04:32 PM   #27636
morinix is offline morinix  United States
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Originally Posted by SY View Post
Just to be clear, my participation in this thread is NOT as a moderator- my "official" mod posts have a cop icon. I have only acted as a mod here from time to time to delete severe and unambiguous personal attacks.
It is a bit duplicitous to be posting as "not.." when right below your name it says "is.."
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Old 13th September 2012, 04:33 PM   #27637
SY is offline SY  United States
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Please reread the rules, which are quite clear about this.
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Old 13th September 2012, 04:35 PM   #27638
PMA is offline PMA  Europe
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This thread was interesting in the beginning. But now, for many years, the posts are cyclically repeated and nothing new has been said in some 5 years. So it has lost any sense, IMO.
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Old 13th September 2012, 05:03 PM   #27639
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And if it's not in good shape then altering the volume way up high or down low makes no difference, the characteristics of the distortion are still clear and obvious, irrespective of the level.

Frank
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Old 13th September 2012, 05:15 PM   #27640
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DF96 View Post
Homework answer: 13.48% chance that just one person will get 0/5. Same for 5/5.
95.82% chance that someone (i.e. one or more people) will get 0/5. Same for 5/5.

That is about the limit of my knowledge of statistics, so I won't attempt the bonus question!

I have a question: what is the chance that some (or most) of those scoring 5/5 will believe it is due to their skill rather than luck? I guess that is psychology rather than statistics.
I don't get it.
How can you have a 13.48% that just one person gets a certain score, but 95.82 that one OR MORE get that score?

jan
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