The end of Moore's law - diyAudio
Go Back   Home > Forums > Blogs > abraxalito

Please consider donating to help us continue to serve you.

Ads on/off / Custom Title / More PMs / More album space / Advanced printing & mass image saving
Rate this Entry

The end of Moore's law

Posted 26th February 2012 at 05:28 AM by abraxalito

Of late I've been enjoying snacking on this book EDAgraffiti which is a romp through various aspects of the economics of semiconductors. Recommended for those who are interested not just in the technical side of the digital revolution but also the commercial perspective too.

One comment from the book jumped out at me, which was a prediction made by Clayton Christensen a few years ago about the end of Moore's Law. He's reported as saying the following at an engineering conference organised by Cadence. Moore's Law will come to an end when the semiconductor industry tries to deliver more capability than the mainstream requires at a price which is higher than the mainstream wants to pay. 450mm wafer processing technology and EUV lithography pretty much do seem to fit the bill here.

This article on The Inquirer is saying pretty much the same thing - gaming and video transcoding have kept the push for faster PCs alive but even in those applications demand is now flagging.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	EDAgra.png
Views:	154
Size:	118.9 KB
ID:	606  
Views 938 Comments 3 Email Blog Entry
Total Comments 3

Comments

  1. Old Comment
    revboden's Avatar
    Sure, this is kind of old news though. What's the point of displays that have higher resolution and faster refresh rates than the eye can perceive? none. 50Mbps home internet connections? Unless you have 10 people all streaming HD movies... That's just silly. The good enough wall has been hit.
    permalink
    Posted 27th February 2012 at 10:57 PM by revboden revboden is offline
  2. Old Comment
    sofaspud's Avatar
    Supply and demand. Why pay more for anything you don't really want or need?
    Rather than 450mm wafers, isn't it much more a matter of feature size (eg lithography)? I don't even know what the SOTA is regarding this; I'm sure they've advanced from the 3.5 micron "standard" used when I was last close to this side of the industry.
    This all really suggests to me that someone ought to be looking for a new application. I just hope it's the good guys.
    permalink
    Posted 3rd March 2012 at 09:31 AM by sofaspud sofaspud is online now
  3. Old Comment
    abraxalito's Avatar
    Yep, more than two orders of magnitude progress since the days of 3.5micron - when was that, like 1990 or so? As regards wafer size, I don't know what the economic arguments are. Just I'm doubtful that any fab really needs that size, but the equipment guys do seem to be pushing hard.
    permalink
    Posted 3rd March 2012 at 03:40 PM by abraxalito abraxalito is offline
 
Hide this!Advertise here!

New To Site? Need Help?

All times are GMT. The time now is 04:29 PM.


vBulletin Optimisation provided by vB Optimise (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2014 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright 1999-2014 diyAudio

Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.3.2